Keeper help

[Roto Rooter]

H2H scoring cats: Field Goal Percentage (FG%), Free Throws Made (FTM), Free Throw Percentage (FT%), 3-point Shots Made (3PTM), Points Scored (PTS), Offensive Rebounds (OREB), Defensive Rebounds (DREB), Assists (AST), Steals (ST), Blocked Shots (BLK), Turnovers (TO)

Pick 5 to keep

Josh Smith
Serge Ibaka
Danny Granger
Rudy Gay
Paul Millsap
Greg Monroe
Paul Pierce
Martin Gortat

Honestly I already have the top 4 set, but I can't make up my mind between Millsap and Monroe. Millsap losing playing time/starting spot potentially has me worried and I have a feeling Monroe is really going to break out this year. Millsap however is very very valuable in this league because of his ability to steal and I keep leaning his way. Just like to get a few more opinions.

[onejayhawk]

This is pretty clear: Monroe, Millsap, Smith, Gortat, Gay.

J

[Moccasin]

Smith, Granger, Millsap, Monroe, and Gortat

[onejayhawk]

Granger is the one clearly not in contention. Not only is he ranked lowest, he is also injured. Pierce is in the declining part of his career, and not at this level any more. You can argue Ibaka over Gortat or Gay. You need Gay because everyone else is a big man.

J

[B-Fly]

I agree that Granger is out. I'd go with Monroe, Millsap and Smith, definitely, with the last two from Ibaka, Gay and Gortat. Because Monroe, Millsap and Smith are all "bigs", I'd probably go with Gay. So that leaves Ibaka vs Gortat. I think I'd take a shot on Ibaka's upside, whereas I think Gortat was already pretty close to his ceiling last year.

[onejayhawk]

I agree that Granger is out. I'd go with Monroe, Millsap and Smith, definitely, with the last two from Ibaka, Gay and Gortat. Because Monroe, Millsap and Smith are all "bigs", I'd probably go with Gay. So that leaves Ibaka vs Gortat. I think I'd take a shot on Ibaka's upside, whereas I think Gortat was already pretty close to his ceiling last year.

You are dangerously close to agreeing with me. Think of your reputation.

J

[Moccasin]

I like Granger more than Gay this season. Granger is nearly back to 100%, as was evident in his recent return to preseason play, logging 12 minutes and putting up 9 points, 3 rebs, and 1 blk, while also hitting one 3pt fg. He'll give you 20 points, 5 rebs, 2 asst, 1 stl, 1 blk, and 2 three's nearly every night, and he'll shoot 5-6 ft's while making 85% at the stripe; most stats which are slightly better than Gay will give you. Z-Bo only played 25 games last season due to unjury, so he'll want the ball, likely leaving less for Gay this season. Find another 5th rounder that can put up the numbers Granger gives you.

[Roto Rooter]

My top 4 were Smith/Ibaka/Granger/Gay and then Millsap-Monroe on the bubble for the last spot.

Ibaka is a no brainer. He'll win the blocks cat for me every week by himself. Why so down on Granger? He had the knee procedure, but is playing in the preseason all be it reduced minutes but from all accounts will be good to go for the start of the season. My thinking in keeping him is his 3 pointers. I don't have any keeper worthy guards, so it's a little tough going into the draft with zero 3 point threat.

[B-Fly]

My top 4 were Smith/Ibaka/Granger/Gay and then Millsap-Monroe on the bubble for the last spot.

Ibaka is a no brainer. He'll win the blocks cat for me every week by himself. Why so down on Granger? He had the knee procedure, but is playing in the preseason all be it reduced minutes but from all accounts will be good to go for the start of the season. My thinking in keeping him is his 3 pointers. I don't have any keeper worthy guards, so it's a little tough going into the draft with zero 3 point threat.

How do your keepers work? Do they cost you picks in certain rounds of the draft, or are they just on your roster to start the season? Depending on who else is left in your pool and the number of teams, I just think you can target guards and 3PM at the draft. You don't want overkill in your keepers, but you don't need to ensure that your keepers cover every category. You just want the best overall value. Then worry about filling your gaps as you draft. I've seen Granger drop off significantly from prior years in almost every mock draft or ranking list I've looked at this year, so if you like him, you can probably get him back at the draft. But I wouldn't give up on the far superior fantasy bets in Monroe and Millsap just because you'd prefer to start the draft with a 3P threat on board.

[onejayhawk]

For those stats, I would go heavily to Gay. Even if you count points even and give Granger an edge on 3pt, Gay wins on Ast Blk, Reb and TO. Granger has an edge on FT% but a huge negative on FG%.

Add it up and I would put Gay more than a round ahead of Granger, assuming he's healthy.

Why so down on Granger? He had the knee procedure, but is playing in the preseason all be it reduced minutes but from all accounts will be good to go for the start of the season. My thinking in keeping him is his 3 pointers. I don't have any keeper worthy guards, so it's a little tough going into the draft with zero 3 point threat.

This is not down on Grainger. He is just a specialist. You pay for the 3pt with a FG% anchor. Gay is a better total player.

J

[Roto Rooter]

How do your keepers work? Do they cost you picks in certain rounds of the draft, or are they just on your roster to start the season? Depending on who else is left in your pool and the number of teams, I just think you can target guards and 3PM at the draft. You don't want overkill in your keepers, but you don't need to ensure that your keepers cover every category. You just want the best overall value. Then worry about filling your gaps as you draft. I've seen Granger drop off significantly from prior years in almost every mock draft or ranking list I've looked at this year, so if you like him, you can probably get him back at the draft. But I wouldn't give up on the far superior fantasy bets in Monroe and Millsap just because you'd prefer to start the draft with a 3P threat on board.

Yeah the keepers just basically become the 1st 5 rounds of the draft. Some good points regarding Granger and those stats. Thanks all for the opinions.

[Moccasin]

For those stats, I would go heavily to Gay. Even if you count points even and give Granger an edge on 3pt, Gay wins on Ast Blk, Reb and TO. Granger has an edge on FT% but a huge negative on FG%.

Add it up and I would put Gay more than a round ahead of Granger, assuming he's healthy.



This is not down on Grainger. He is just a specialist. You pay for the 3pt with a FG% anchor. Gay is a better total player.

J

Take a look at Gay's past stats and tell us where you see them better than Granger's past stats?

[B-Fly]

Take a look at Gay's past stats and tell us where you see them better than Granger's past stats?

Like jay said, Gay is better in FG%, RBD, BLK and STL. Granger has been better in 3PM, FT% and PTS. It's about a wash in AST.

[onejayhawk]

Take a look at Gay's past stats and tell us where you see them better than Granger's past stats?

Going into the past helps Gay more than Granger. In 2010/2011 Gay was top 10, til he was hurt. Last year they were relatively equal. In general, Gay is as much better in steals as Granger is in 3pt. Gay edge in FG% is bigger than Granger's edge in FT%. Gay is better in blocks each of the last three years. He is a better rebounder each of the last three years. Assists are basically even. TO, if you use them, is a big edge to Granger.

Do not get me wrong. It is not that I am down on Granger. I think you short change Gay, who is a more balanced player.

J

[Moccasin]

Going into the past helps Gay more than Granger. In 2010/2011 Gay was top 10, til he was hurt. Last year they were relatively equal. In general, Gay is as much better in steals as Granger is in 3pt. (Steals: Gay-1.3pg, Granger-1.0pg) (3pt.: Gay-1.0pg, Granger-1.8pg)Gay edge in FG% is bigger than Granger's edge in FT% (FG%: Gay-45.6%, Granger-43.8; FT%: Gay-77.1%, Granger-84.7%). Gay is better in blocks each of the last three years (Blocks: Gay-.9pg, Granger-.9pg). H%e is a better rebounder each of the last three years (Rebounds: Gay-5.7pg, Granger-5.2pg). Assists are basically even (Assists: Gay-1.9pg, Granger-2.0pg). TO, if you use them, is a big edge to Granger (TO: Gay-2.3pg, Granger-2.0pg).

Do not get me wrong. It is not that I am down on Granger. I think you short change Gay, who is a more balanced player.

I said: "Smith, Granger, Millsap, Monroe, and Gortat"
and
"I like Granger more than Gay this season. Granger is nearly back to 100%, as was evident in his recent return to preseason play, logging 12 minutes and putting up 9 points, 3 rebs, and 1 blk, while also hitting one 3pt fg. He'll give you 20 points, 5 rebs, 2 asst, 1 stl, 1 blk, and 2 three's nearly every night, and he'll shoot 5-6 ft's while making 85% at the stripe; most stats which are slightly better than Gay will give you. Z-Bo only played 25 games last season due to unjury, so he'll want the ball, likely leaving less for Gay this season. Find another 5th rounder that can put up the numbers Granger gives you."

You said: "This is pretty clear: Monroe, Millsap, Smith, Gortat, Gay."
and
"Granger is the one clearly not in contention. Not only is he ranked lowest, he is also injured."J

The stats in BOLD RED are the past 3 years averages, and I think they speak for themselves. Also, it's obvious from what I posted, as compared to what you posted, that you're undervaluing Granger, while I only omitted Gay from my top 5 list, and mostly used past stats to compare the two players. History tells us that Granger put up better statistical numbers in more statistical catagories than Gay over the past 3 seasons. This doesn't mean that he will do the same in the upcoming season, but when comparing two players, I think it's a good place to start.