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Multiplicative Scoring

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  • Multiplicative Scoring

    This debate probably deserves it's own thread.

    Looking ahead to future VD's, I've been tinkering with multiplicative scoring to see if there's a way to mitigate the damage that 1's and 2's can have on your total, and at the same time allow for more strategy in this form of the game (without being a strategy free-for-all like Additive scoring).

    Presently you can get away with punting a maximum of 2 categories in multiplicative scoring (as long as you are maximizing value elsewhere), or semi punting 3 (maybe 4) ... semi-punting 3 or 4 categories is more difficult because it becomes harder to maximize the shortfall elsewhere.

    So to state the obvious, everyone has to draft value down the middle with the odd variation.

    Pros: teams are more likely to be representative of a typical baseball roster (plus Jamie QuirK); with decades, the best players from each era get their fair dues;

    Cons: everyone has to draft basically the same way; it is difficult to alter strategy if you find yourself in a spot; and as a consequence, many people find their draft is over before halfway ... leading to serious boredom issues in the second half ... and overall VD lethargy. The last 5 drafts we did were basically the same.

    IMO Additive scoring is only a short term solution to this lethargy. It has it's own problems.

    6 category punt: if executed perfectly, and if you face no competition for players, it can get decent finish (maybe 5th), although it is not a winning strategy.

    5 category punt: still not a winning strategy IMO, unless you get very lucky.

    4 category punt: if executed perfectly can be a winning option, but depends on a lot of factors

    3, 2, 1 category punt: it is essential that you adopt on of these 3 if you hope to be competitive

    Punting & semi-punting: punting 1 or more categories, and semi punting others is a potentially winning strategy.

    Multiple semi-punts: a good drafter can manage this into a winning strategy ... it is as close as you can get to down the middle value drafting in Additive.

    No punt: nearly impossible to win without punting something, because the preponderance of punting among other teams makes competition for the elite players much more fierce.

    Obviously the inability to draft value down the middle is the big issue with Additive scoring.

    This thread is about finding a way to tinker with multiplicative scoring, so that down the middle value drafting is on a par with 1-4 category punting as a viable winning strategy.

    On another matter, maybe we can also device way to shake up value ... we have tried: Last Name, First Name, Franchises and Decades. And we have combined a few: Last Name & Franchises ... and at least one other combo draft (Decades and Franchises?). These debates dried up when Pogues/Squid/CB et al dropped out ... IMO we need to get these issues active again if Vintage Drafting is to have legs.

    I hope I don't end up debating with myself on this point ... if we don't do something to spice things up, this will be another one-off VD like the previous 2. The boredom factor is the biggest thing we need to overcome.

  • #2
    I hope this makes some sense (I'm not discounting it being complete hokum! )

    Some early number crunching using a previous Multi draft as an example:

    VD = actual scores

    In EX1 I bumped the 1pt category to 2, and the 2pt to 2.5. I then deducted the added value from the other 14 teams.

    In EX2 I bumped the 1pt category to 2.5, the 2pt to 3 and the 3pt to 3.4. This time I deducted slightly more value from the other 13 teams (about an extra 25%).


    Code:
    TEAM            VD       EX1     EX2   
    
    ezeagle	        119.8	151.2	155.1
    heyelander	175.6	182.0	182.1
    Kevin Seitzer	193.7	223.1	222.0
    Slider	        184.7	186.0	185.2
    johnnyA24	193.5	204.0	202.9
    frae	        167.2	152.5	150.8
    amcg    	140.9	148.4	149.8
    GladHeAteHer	146.5	147.1	148.5
    OaklandA's	168.8	169.7	169.3
    TSGarp	        152.8	152.3	153.7
    off_the_wall	146.7	132.7	132.9
    Mr. Squidward	187.2	182.9	181.2
    eldiablo505	174.3	177.6	177.1
    revo	        173.9	184.1	183.6
    B-Fly	        168.1	157.2	156.4
    SeaDogStat	171.1	169.5	169.6
    The only low ranked team that this had a substantial positive effect on was was Ezeagle (top), and it should be noted that his team included the following scores: 1,1,1,1,1,1,1,2. Ez's team is a bad example, because it was so bad.

    The changes to KS's score are probably more relevant here, because he completely punted 2 categories (both BA cats), and received a significant boost to his score. It's noteworthy that EX2 was less beneficial to him, and also substantially harmed Frae (middling totals), which could indicate that a better equalizer would be:

    +value to the 1's & 2's and -value to the top scores only (rather than all 14).

    KS probably got such a big boost because he had the largest amount of extreme scores (5 scores of 15 or 16pts and 2x1's). Frae's score got badly hammered because almost all of his totals were middling or slightly below middle, and the formula docked value from these middling and high scores to compensate for the added value to the 1's and 2's.

    I have a feeling that this could be the solution, as it would lessen the multiplier bonuses that the big scores provide for more extreme punting strategies. Or we could try and simply balance the added value on the bottom two numbers by deleting it from the top 2 only. I'll try these sometime later:

    1<2 & 2<2.5 ...... scores 12-16pts minus 0.3 (doesn't seem like enough off the top of my head)

    1<2.5, 2<3 & 3<3.4 ........... scores 12-16 minus 0.48 (possible)

    as above with:

    ........ 16>15 & 15<14.5

    ........ 16>14.5, 15<14 & 14>13.6

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    • #3

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      • #4
        Just to clarify the point of that:

        In the above example, I increased the value of the lowest 2 points scores (1 & 2) in order to try and make it less punishing. To keep the overall value the same, I reduced the added value from the other points scores (3 - 16).

        It did positively affect the teams who got several 1's and to a lesser extent 2's.

        I never got around to it, but the next plan was to see about removing the added value only from the top 2 scores (rather than all of 3-16).

        So in the new example, the point distribution would be:

        1 = 2
        2 = 2.5
        3 = 3
        4 = 4
        ...
        13 = 13
        14= 14
        15 = 14.5
        16 = 15

        I think it's worth trying for one draft at least.
        Last edited by johnnya24; 12-03-2012, 04:30 AM.

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