2K11: Brandon Belt

[onejayhawk]

You have to love the name on a power hitter.

Fangraph's Mark Hulet's prospect assessment:

Belt posted a .485 wOBA in high-A, .447 in double-A, and .419 in triple-A. At the senior level, he produced a triple-slash line of .229/.393/.563 in 61 plate appearances. He also showed a solid eye at the plate with excellent walk rates and reasonable strikeout rates for a power hitter. Along with ISO rates of .244/.286/.333, Belt showed his value as an all-around player by stealing 22 bases on the season; he succeeded on the base paths due to smart base running as opposed to blazing speed. Belt’s success in pro ball can be linked to mechanical adjustments at the plate. He has a wide, well-balanced stance at the plate. He occasionally gets out on his front foot a bit, which robs him of some power. His swing also gets loopy at times but, when he’s on, Belt shows good bat speed and the barrel carries well through the strike zone.

PT is a problem. The Giants have Huff at 1B, and have already sat on Posey for an extended period. I am skittish about projecting him in MLB, but this kid can rake. Decent as a rounded player a well.

J

[kldub4life]

A full season at AAA with solid success, and he'll come up in Sept. and never go back down. But we'll have to see how he does in AAA this year.

I will say this though if starts off hot (like Stanton did in 2010) I wouldn't be shocked if he got the ealier call. But I wouldn't look for him to be a significant major league contributor til 2012.

[Erik]

He could contribute in 2011 if there is a Huff injury, which used to be a regular occurrence. That's enough for me to go the extra dollar or use a first-round minors pick on him if things play out that way in an auction.

[onejayhawk]

He could contribute in 2011 if there is a Huff injury, which used to be a regular occurrence. That's enough for me to go the extra dollar or use a first-round minors pick on him if things play out that way in an auction.

I was thinking more that Huff was needed as an OF. Their front three are OK, but Huff is the logical OF4, if Belt can handle the 1B.

J

[Judge Jude]

Giants already saying Belt may make the opening day roster. With a good spring, I think he gets a lot of 1B time right away.

Less convinced that he hits immediately, but I'm much more bullish on his getting that opportunity.

[onejayhawk]

The way he charged through the minors, that would not surprise me. Belt has a reputation as being a very good gloveman at 1B. Huff, as a fielder st 1B, is nothing special.

It will be interesting to see where his ADP falls.

J

[Pauly]

A lot of what I have read is a bit down on Belt's power....that he probably only projects in the 20-25 HR range -- not the best for a first baseman. Does anyone disagree with this?

[onejayhawk]

A lot of what I have read is a bit down on Belt's power....that he probably only projects in the 20-25 HR range -- not the best for a first baseman. Does anyone disagree with this?

That sounds about right for now, and maybe less, in SF. It's one of the worst HR parks in all baseball. He brings a rounded game rather than a ton of power.

Yes, that means that Barry Bonds was scary. As if you didnt already know.

J

[Pauly]

That sounds about right for now, and maybe less, in SF. It's one of the worst HR parks in all baseball. He brings a rounded game rather than a ton of power.

Yes, that means that Barry Bonds was scary. As if you didnt already know.

J

So what makes this guy worth drafting in a keeper league other than the fact he was on the cover of a recent Baseball America? He sounds like a $5-$10 player at best for the next few years minimum.

[Hornsby]

AT&T park has ranked 20th and 19th the last two years, respectively, in terms of park effects for HRs (out of 30 parks). The year before it was 13th.

Which is why I never have bought into those park factor ratings...AT&T is truly a horrible park for a power hitter. And wasn't the year that they ranked 13th one of Bods last years? Just sayin'...

[Hornsby]

Shrug. You don't have to "buy into them". They are what they are. Park factor is only something to take into consideration in the most extreme of cases, imo (like Coors).

And no, Barry Bonds didn't play in 2008. Based on that note, I'm wondering if you misunderstand how park factor is calculated.

Hey bitch, when you're as old as I am, the years start to blend together.

And I understand just fine how it's calculated, still doesn't mean that I have to buy into it totally.

[The Dane]

I guess I'm as high on Belt as anyone, but even I have to keep telling myself that it was just ONE MINOR LEAGUE SEASON. Sure, it was a great season and an indicator of wonderful things to come, but it was still only one season. And we know it came out of nowhere because he went undrafted in every league I know of that uses a minor league roster. I'm taking a wait-and-see approach. If I can manage to get him this year for less than $10 (if he's in the minors, more if he makes the team), I will. Otherwise, I'll let someone else take the chance.

[Medici]

It's a bad park for lefty power, league average for righties.

20-25 HRs is about where Belt's power seems to lie. I guess the upshot is that he's got a 70+ hit tool and should reach his ceiling fairly quickly. I see him putting up a Billy Butler line +5 steals in 2012. Value that as you may.

[Sour Masher]

It's a bad park for lefty power, league average for righties.

20-25 HRs is about where Belt's power seems to lie. I guess the upshot is that he's got a 70+ hit tool and should reach his ceiling fairly quickly. I see him putting up a Billy Butler line +5 steals in 2012. Value that as you may.

That sucks for Belt, since he is a lefty. I was bullish on his Belt having 25 homer power, but maybe his home park brings that down 3-4 dingers.

[mjl]

I mentioned this in the other Belt thread but without numbers... take a look at SF plate appearances for Sept/Oct last year:

Huff 121
Posey 115
Uribe 100
Sanchez 98
Burrell 94
Jose Guillen 90
Sandoval 73
Torres 69
Ross 65
Fontenot 48
Renteria 34

This year they don't have Renteria, Guillen, or Uribe, but they do have DeRosa, Rowand, and Tejada. Given Bochy's tendencies to move people around and how many guys the Giants have who can play multiple positions, I'd be a little dubious about expecting anyone other than Posey (and Huff if he plays like last year) getting more than 80% of a full season's at bats. On the other hand, everyone likely to be on the 25-man roster other than Posey and Panda is on the wrong side of 30, so maybe you just assume someone will get hurt and Belt will show up... but that's a crowded lineup.

- Mike