2K11: Brad Hawpe

[revo]

Brad Hawpe was a perennial revo fave, a no-nonsense plugger who didn't really excite, but you could depend on for .290/.380/23/85, his typical line over a four year stretch. He got you a good BA, a better than average OBP, solid power and run production, and the possibility of a breakout, usually for a discounted price. But then one day the bottom just fell out, and his days of dependability were over. His power disappeared overnight, and just when fantasy players were trying to cut their losses, the Rockies did too, dropping him like a Kim Kardashian ex-boyfriend.

The Rays picked him up but he barely played -- and barely hit -- and suddenly, in the span of one disastrous season, Brad Hawpe was completely washed-up at age 31.

The Padres are taking a chance that he still has something left in the tank, hiring him to compete with fellow washout Jorge Cantu, as a one-year fill-in for Adrian Gonzalez.

Hawpe doesn't have any excuse to fall back on -- his BABIP was as normal as ever, his LD% didn't fluctuate, but his HR/FB went down from his average of 11.2% to 7.6%. Still, that's not a big enough drop to explain his downfall.

So what do you think about Hawpe in '11? Is he kaput? Can he rebound back to his steady self?

I think he rebounds back to a shade beneath his former level, but Petco won't help him any:

.279/65/17/75 in 465 ABs.

[joncarlos]

What numbers are you looking at? Looking at Fangraphs for mine.

He posted 4 straight years of BABIP in the .340s (or better) and then cratered last year. He did it by crushing line drives well over 20% of the time, and by hitting the ball over the fence a lot (16-plus HR/FB%). Even then, there were chinks in the armor (K rate climbed 4 straight years from 06-09... 24.6% is not the same as 28.9%)

Even post-humidor, I think a lot of that has to do with Coors. Slow left-handed corner outfielders don't put up .350 BABIPs under normal circumstances. Last year, everything came crashing down. The BABIP went down to something normal. The HR/FB went from 16+ to 10. And then his AVG went down without those sources of hits.

Now he's going to Petco. I can't imagine that's going to work out well at all. Maybe the line drives come back, but with a K rate approaching 30% and a tough park to hit for power in, maybe .270-18HR is his upside if he finds 550 AB.

[revo]

What numbers are you looking at? Looking at Fangraphs for mine.

He posted 4 straight years of BABIP in the .340s (or better) and then cratered last year.

Baseball-Reference has his BABIP last year at .308, which I'm not sure should be considered as "cratering" since that's still higher than league average.

[GwynnInTheHall]

He'll be the first option in SD. Cantu, will platoon at both 1st and 3rd, but is essentially the utility corner guy for the Padres. If Hawpe loses ABs it will be because his fielding does him in.

[DJBeasties]

Baseball-Reference has his BABIP last year at .308, which I'm not sure should be considered as "cratering" since that's still higher than league average.

When you are at a 35-36% hit rate, 31% is a pretty big fall. Plus, guys establish their own hit rates so I don't like measuring him against the standard 29-30% 'norm'.

In 150 career ABs, he has a .450 SLG at Petco. Granted small number of ABs, but I think if he's healthy and gets 500 ABs, then 30 doubles and 15 HRs with a .250 avg and counting stats (RBI, Runs) somewhere in the high 60's low 70's is fair.

[senorsheep]

FWIW, I said this in the old forum when The Rockies cut him...

Hawpe has a really strange clockwork swing - it looks like a lot of disconnected moving pieces that have to be in perfect synchronization for it to work. When it's working, he can rake. When any piece of his swing is off, it seems to take him forever to get back on track mechanically.

He never looks that bad to me defensively, though I know his defensive metrics suggest otherwise. He has a cannon for an arm. He just doesn't seem to get to a lot of balls that a good defender would.

He's always been a good clubhouse guy with a great attitude. He's a pleasure to watch when he's on - he has carried this team offensively at critical times, most notably The Rockies' incredible 2007 wild card run. Unfortunately, he's painful to watch when he's not on, and he's not been on for way too many stretches covering way too many important games.

Some contender should pick him up, though - he's always a mechanical adjustment or two away from being a significant contributor. He can make some hitting instructor look like a genius. I'll bet Clint Hurdle is lobbying for him as we speak.

Good luck to a good guy. I hope he can turn it around somewhere.

I still think the right hitting coach could turn him around. Who's got that job in San Diego, now, anyway?

[joncarlos]

Yeah, in all honesty, the Pirates (having hired Hurdle as their manager) should have probably taken a chance on him instead of Overbay.

[Wonderboy]

I still think the right hitting coach could turn him around. Who's got that job in San Diego, now, anyway?

Randy Ready.

http://mlb.mlb.com/team/coach_staff_bio.jsp?c_id=sd&coachorstaffid=120967

[madducks]

Yeah, in all honesty, the Pirates (having hired Hurdle as their manager) should have probably taken a chance on him instead of Overbay.

The Pirates also wanted an above average defensive first baseman who could handle all of those bad throws from their young infielders. That was a big reason for them acquiring Overbay.

[Wonderboy]

The Pirates also wanted an above average defensive first baseman who could handle all of those bad throws from their young infielders. That was a big reason for them acquiring Overbay.

Yeah, I think we fantasy players all too often forget the defensive value of a player. Good point.