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Sort of an interesting breakout last year as Colvin finally started to figure some things out. He turned 25 in September and has a lot of minor league seasoning (looks like over 1000 ABs at AA).
2010 stats: 358 AB/395 PA, .254/.316/.500, 20 HR, 56 RBI, 60 R, 6sb... .296 BABIP, 7.6% walk rate, 27.9% K rate, 1.09 G/F, 17% LD rate, 1 CS, 18 doubles, 5 triples
18 doubles and 20 HR means that he pretty much maxed out his HR potential last year. The .316 OBP isn't great... chalk that up to a low AVG and a so-so walk rate. His K rate is pretty high but not Reynoldsian.
The speed is really the thing. Bill James has him down for 514 AB, .259-25-75-76r-6sb. He stole 8 bases in the minors in 2009, 7 in 2008 and 17 in 2007. If he can steal 8-10 bags this year that puts him a couple dollars ahead of other .260-25-75 guys. He was a good athlete when he was picked. I think it's still there.
I'm not sure how much power upside is there. Project last season's HR rate to 520 AB and he'd have 29 HR. But I think he maxed out his potential last year so I'd expect more like 25-26. He did hit .250-6HR in 108 AB against lefties and .255-14HR in 251 AB against righties so maybe the platoon split won't be an issue.
The other question is PT - Soriano and Byrd were a little nicked up last year. Colvin might just be better than Fukudome which helps, but will the Cubs really sit their expensive Japanese toy?
Given everything I think something like 475 AB, .265-23-68-63r-9sb looks reasonable, but he has upside for 600 AB, .265-29-88-76r-12sb if everything breaks right.
2010 stats: 358 AB/395 PA, .254/.316/.500, 20 HR, 56 RBI, 60 R, 6sb... .296 BABIP, 7.6% walk rate, 27.9% K rate, 1.09 G/F, 17% LD rate, 1 CS, 18 doubles, 5 triples
18 doubles and 20 HR means that he pretty much maxed out his HR potential last year. The .316 OBP isn't great... chalk that up to a low AVG and a so-so walk rate. His K rate is pretty high but not Reynoldsian.
The speed is really the thing. Bill James has him down for 514 AB, .259-25-75-76r-6sb. He stole 8 bases in the minors in 2009, 7 in 2008 and 17 in 2007. If he can steal 8-10 bags this year that puts him a couple dollars ahead of other .260-25-75 guys. He was a good athlete when he was picked. I think it's still there.
I'm not sure how much power upside is there. Project last season's HR rate to 520 AB and he'd have 29 HR. But I think he maxed out his potential last year so I'd expect more like 25-26. He did hit .250-6HR in 108 AB against lefties and .255-14HR in 251 AB against righties so maybe the platoon split won't be an issue.
The other question is PT - Soriano and Byrd were a little nicked up last year. Colvin might just be better than Fukudome which helps, but will the Cubs really sit their expensive Japanese toy?
Given everything I think something like 475 AB, .265-23-68-63r-9sb looks reasonable, but he has upside for 600 AB, .265-29-88-76r-12sb if everything breaks right.
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