Easy way to correlate ADP value to auction value?

[Moonlight J]

Looking for a way to say pick #150 is equal to a $_ player. I'm thinking there is a rule of thumb out there for this but I'm running into dead ends.

[TopChuckie]

Looking for a way to say pick #150 is equal to a $_ player. I'm thinking there is a rule of thumb out there for this but I'm running into dead ends.

Have a look at this:

http://www.fantasyballjunkie.com/?p=1195

[Moonlight J]

Have a look at this:

http://www.fantasyballjunkie.com/?p=1195

very helpful - thanks!

[TopChuckie]

very helpful - thanks!

Click the Average Auction Values on the list of categories on the right, then look at their 2010 values. In that post they say, "Others have looked into historical data and figured out the natural log function formula that one can apply to ADP in order to chart expected auction prices. We’ll spare you the details...", I'm sure if you emailed them they'd point you to the details.

It's an intelligent site. Not sure if you want to send a cease and desist order on the use of the "junkie" term though.

[Moonlight J]

btw, it is explained in a formula on p 47 of this year's Forecaster

Of course, I need to figure out how to run the formula

y=-9.81n(x)+57.8

[ThatRogue]

btw, it is explained in a formula on p 47 of this year's Forecaster

Of course, I need to figure out how to run the formula

y=-9.81n(x)+57.8

It's actually y=-9.8ln(x) + 57.8. That makes a HUGE difference. ;-)

(PS: You can run the equation using Excel or another spreadsheet program. Just set one cell as -9.8, the second cell as =LN("point to fourth cell"), the third cell as 57.8, the fourth cell as the ADP, the fifth cell as the product of the first cell times the second cell and the sixth cell as the sum of the third and fifth cells. Excel may make us less smart but it sure is useful when it comes to roto. LOL)

[onejayhawk]

It's actually y=-9.8ln(x) + 57.8. That makes a HUGE difference. ;-)

(PS: You can run the equation using Excel or another spreadsheet program. Just set one cell as -9.8, the second cell as =LN("point to fourth cell"), the third cell as 57.8, the fourth cell as the ADP, the fifth cell as the product of the first cell times the second cell and the sixth cell as the sum of the third and fifth cells. Excel may make us less smart but it sure is useful when it comes to roto. LOL)

Do they still teach logarithms in public schools? A chart might be more useful.

J

[Moonlight J]

It's actually y=-9.8ln(x) + 57.8. That makes a HUGE difference. ;-)

(PS: You can run the equation using Excel or another spreadsheet program. Just set one cell as -9.8, the second cell as =LN("point to fourth cell"), the third cell as 57.8, the fourth cell as the ADP, the fifth cell as the product of the first cell times the second cell and the sixth cell as the sum of the third and fifth cells. Excel may make us less smart but it sure is useful when it comes to roto. LOL)

That's what I ended up doing. I had the ADP value in cell A, cell B was =LN(A2), and then cell C is set up for =-9.8*(B2)+57.8

It does inflate the top values (Pujols $56) but it shows a r2 of +.93 which is significant enough to use and then fudge the factors at the top.

[TopChuckie]

That's what I ended up doing. I had the ADP value in cell A, cell B was =LN(A2), and then cell C is set up for =-9.8*(B2)+57.8

It does inflate the top values (Pujols $56) but it shows a r2 of +.93 which is significant enough to use and then fudge the factors at the top.

Is that all that out line, $56 for Pujols? Remember you are not calculating value, you are calculating what to expect him to go for at an auction.

[Moonlight J]

Is that all that out line, $56 for Pujols? Remember you are not calculating value, you are calculating what to expect him to go for at an auction.

$56 for any player in a non-inflated auction is out of line.

[TopChuckie]

$56 for any player in a non-inflated auction is out of line.

It's been a long time since I drafted in a non-keeper league, but I would not be shocked to see Pujols go for $56. In the Shandler 500 thread Todd said he bid Pujols up to $110, from Shandler's $53 starting price. Granted it's a much different format and budget, but it illustrates how some will extremely overbid the elite players.

ETA: Maybe others can chime in on the top prices in their non-keeper, $260 drafts.

[B-Fly]

It's been a long time since I drafted in a non-keeper league, but I would not be shocked to see Pujols go for $56. In the Shandler 500 thread Todd said he bid Pujols up to $110, from Shandler's $53 starting price. Granted it's a much different format and budget, but it illustrates how some will extremely overbid the elite players.

ETA: Maybe others can chime in on the top prices in their non-keeper, $260 drafts.

In my local re-draft NL only auction league, Bonds and Pujols are the only players ever to top $50 in the 14 years I've been in the league, and only after we switched from AVG to OBP around 8 years ago. I believe I bought Bonds for $53 in 2003 and $51 in 2004 in that league. Somebody bought Pujols for $52 one year - can't recall which one.

[TopChuckie]

In my local re-draft NL only auction league, Bonds and Pujols are the only players ever to top $50 in the 14 years I've been in the league, and only after we switched from AVG to OBP around 8 years ago. I believe I bought Bonds for $53 in 2003 and $51 in 2004 in that league. Somebody bought Pujols for $52 one year - can't recall which one.

Yeah, I can see Pujols going for $56 in a particular draft, but I will admit an average of $56 would be high, as that would likely require bids over $60. The highest actual average auction value I could find for Pujols over the last two years was $48, and that most likely included inflated keeper auctions.

[Todd Zola]

It's been a long time since I drafted in a non-keeper league, but I would not be shocked to see Pujols go for $56. In the Shandler 500 thread Todd said he bid Pujols up to $110, from Shandler's $53 starting price. Granted it's a much different format and budget, but it illustrates how some will extremely overbid the elite players.

ETA: Maybe others can chime in on the top prices in their non-keeper, $260 drafts.

Just a point of clarification - Roto 500 is a completely different animal, you have $500 to work with. And FWIW, those reading that thread, I have it from a very reputable source (cough Ron cough) that the prices now on his site were adjusted from those we used in FPAZ. I would not bid him up that high with the present prices.

And, I can pretty much guarantee someone will pay $56 for Pujols in a few of the 15 team NFBC auction championships. He won't average that, but he will go for that in at least one, probably a few leagues.

[Moonlight J]

And, I can pretty much guarantee someone will pay $56 for Pujols in a few of the 15 team NFBC auction championships. He won't average that, but he will go for that in at least one, probably a few leagues.

Is there a NFBC event in St. Louis this season?