Yu Darvish - Hold or Sell?

[wilbur wood]

I've had Yu Darvish for 2 years on my farm team. Was hopeful that he may post this year, view it as a 50/50 prop for 2012.

Now I know the usual caveats regarding Japanese pitchers - Japanese ball is more pitcher friendly given the strike zone, less true power to nail mistakes for HR's, etc.

The one that concerns me more is usage. The elite Japanese pitchers are ridden hard over there from the insane levels of pitching in the HS tournament, to logging heavy workloads in the pros starting at age 20. Scouts that have seen Dice K both in Japan and since indicate that his stuff was better in Japan. Last season there was a ~ 2 month stretch that Darvish was allowed to throw between 135 to 150 pitches in each of his starts and this will likely happen again in 2011.

Anyway I've been offered pick 1.4 in our upcoming amateur/intl draft for Darvish. Now I see a bit of a dropoff after 1.3 this year (Harper, Taillon, Machado) but there are some good pitchers still at 1.4 and I could always trade up one more slot.

Anyway, interested in what other owners are doing in keeper/dynasty leagues that allow the international guys to be drafted and rostered.

[Sour Masher]

You list some valid concerns here, but to me the biggest concern I have is the small but real possibility that Darvish never comes over, or at least doesn't come over any time soon. He has indicated in the past that he likes pitching in Japan and has reservations about coming to the US. Adding that to the other issues you mention would make me make the trade, so you can pick more of a sure thing. There is no denying his talent, but there are too many questions to continue to use a minor league roster spot on him.

[Roy Hobbs]

You list some valid concerns here, but to me the biggest concern I have is the small but real possibility that Darvish never comes over, or at least doesn't come over any time soon. He has indicated in the past that he likes pitching in Japan and has reservations about coming to the US. Adding that to the other issues you mention would make me make the trade, so you can pick more of a sure thing. There is no denying his talent, but there are too many questions to continue to use a minor league roster spot on him.

Yu Darvish Plans To Play In MLB In 2012
By Mark Polishuk [November 3, 2010 at 10:44pm CST]
Japanese right-hander Yu Darvish intends to play in North America in 2012, tweets Newsday's David Lennon. Amidst speculation that Darvish might pursue a transfer to the majors next season, he chose to stay in Japan, a move Lennon says was prompted by a divorce.

Lennon mentions the Mets as a possible suitor, but New York is just one of the teams who would be interested in Darvish, who would be just 25 years old on Opening Day 2012. The Mets, Braves, Rangers, Rays and Yankees have all been connected to Darvish, in addition to the Nationals, Orioles and Red Sox.

Darvish has a career 2.12 ERA, a 3.28 K/BB ratio, and 974 strikeouts in 1036.1 innings for the Nippon Ham Fighters. He's best known to North American fans from his terrific performance at the 2009 World Baseball Classic that helped lead Japan to the title.


No way in hell do you drop him now.

[Gregg]

Stay the course!

Now is the time to keep or go get him.

[Sour Masher]

I wouldn't put too much faith in an isolated report. There have been isolated reports in the past about him posting that turned out to be wrong. There was always an excuse built in. The latest is Darvish's divorce.

I generally assume every baseball player in the wrold wants to come to the US to play, but that isn't always the case. Lennon may have heard something, maybe he even heard it from Darvish through a translator, or more likely someone close to Darvish. But we don't really know what Darvish will do. He may not know what he'll do. And with another season of 250 or so innings, filled with games with pitch counts well over 120, who knows what will happen.

All that said, Hobbs and Gregg are 100% right. I wouldn't drop him. But I would seek to trade him, if the price was right. Maybe if you play up these reports you can get more that pick 1.4. If not, I'd still look at who was available at pick 1.4. Can you take players not in the minors yet? If so, and Rendon is available, I'd want him over Darvish for sure.

[rhd]

Definitely hold Darvish, Wilbur. He'll be a free agent in 2014, so I would think they would post him at least by 2013. I havent heard anything that he plans to come over in 2012 tho. It's not his decision anyway as his team would have to agree to post him.

Re: Japanese performance in MLB, the competition is a little more steep in MLB, but the ballparks are a little bigger, too, so these 2 things may cancel each other out. Re: the overuse of Japanese pitchers, there may be something to this. However, pitching abuse is cumulative over time, so its effects may not show up until much later. Darvish is only 24, so still quite young. He hasnt had any major injuries AFAIK, so I wouldnt worry too much about health problems showing up in the next few years.

Re: whether he'll ever come over, I would think that if they offer enough money, which I think some team will, he'll find it hard to refuse.

I, too, would prefer Rendon, or for that matter Gerrit Cole or Matt Purke, too, but you probably have room for one of those guys as well as Darvish, too.

[wilbur wood]

Thanks for the input guys.

I do put it at 50/50 that he comes to the US in 2012. Reality is that we won't know until November. To be clear I'm not looking to cut him rather trade him for top ~ 3 pick. So far I've only been offered pick 1.4 (Pomeranz or Sale), I'd prefer Taillon, but likely need pick 1.2 to make that happen. I may throw a pick back (late 2nd round) along with Darvish for pick 1.2

Darvish is still young, but on the other hand Japanese starting pitchers typically don't age that well do to the fact that they get used like a veteran right out of high school.

[Roy Hobbs]

ESPN's Keith Law expects the Blue Jays to be "serious bidders" for Yu Darvish. (Twitter link) The Japanese star says he wants to pitch in the Major Leagues in 2012, and at least nine teams besides Toronto are known to have interest. [February 22, 2011 at 11:10pm CST]

[Roy Hobbs]

It's time to start thinking about Darvish again.

Rob Bland (Baseball Writer – MLB reports): This offseason, there could be only two elite pitchers available for teams to bid on. While C.J. Wilson looks to sign a deal close to $100M, CC Sabathia may be looking at opting out of his current contract with the Yankees. Before the 2009 season, Sabathia signed a 7 year, $161M contract in which he makes $23M annually from 2010-2015. Add in the fact that there will be at least five teams fighting for the services of two pitchers, an alternative must be found.

Yu Darvish, a Japanese right-handed pitcher could be the answer. Although it has not been confirmed that Darvish will even make the trek to North America to play in the MLB, teams are lining up to watch him pitch. Darvish’s ERA in the Japanese Pacific League for the Nippon Ham Fighters sits at 1.47. He also has 223 strikeouts. His 4-seam fastball sits in the 91-94 mph range with a great 2-seamer (or shuuto) with a lot of movement at 89-91 mph. He has a slurve, as well as a split-finger, which seems to be his choice for an out pitch.

Many teams will be interested in Darvish, but how many really have the financial ability to bid for him in the posting process. The process is basically a silent auction, with all teams that are interested putting a bid in, and the highest bid wins. The winning team then has 30 days to agree to a contract with the player. If an agreement is not reached, the posting fee is then returned back to the MLB team.

A player of Darvish’s magnitude rarely comes up in the posting process, so estimating a potential price is difficult. Really, the only comparison is Daisuke Matsuzaka. In 2006, the Boston Red Sox bid of $51,111,111 earned the rights to negotiate with the right-handed pitcher. Matsuzaka then agreed to a 6 year, $52M contract, that could be worth as much as $60M with incentives. Matsuzaka has been dominant at times, as witnessed by his 2008 season, where he went 18-3 with a 2.90 ERA. He was 4th in Cy Young Award voting after keeping hitters to a .211 average. He has also been below average, as this year, before going on the disabled list, he walked 5.5 batters per 9 innings.

There are very few teams with the financial flexibility to pull off such a move, while the other teams will pass Darvish up.

New York Yankees
With a payroll over $200M annually, the Yankees can always be in on any free agent, especially a high profile one. Behind CC Sabathia, who may opt out of his current contract, the Yankees have a lot of question marks in the rotation. Ivan Nova has had a solid season, but AJ Burnett and Phil Hughes had extremely disappointing campaigns. If the Yankees want to continue their success in the AL East, Darvish may be the key.

Boston Red Sox
The Red Sox, like the Yankees, have a lot of question marks in the rotation. Behind Jon Lester, Josh Beckett and Clay Buchholz, who were extremely solid this year, the rotation has been a mess. Matsuzaka struggled, Lackey has been pretty bad, and Tim Wakefield is nearing the end of his career. They don’t NEED Darvish like the Yankees do.

Toronto Blue Jays
General Manager Alex Anthopoulos has recently said that he was in Japan scouting Darvish. The Blue Jays also have question marks beyond ace Ricky Romero. Brandon Morrow, Kyle Drabek and Brett Cecil underperformed this year, while 21 year old Henderson Alvarez has really impressed in the second half. The Blue Jays have stated they could take on a payroll of $140-150M when the team is ready to contend.

Texas Rangers
GM Jon Daniels was in Japan in the summer to watch Darvish pitch, and could be a frontrunner for his services. With CJ Wilson ready to hit the free agent market, the Rangers will have a lot of quality innings to replace. Derek Holland is developing into a solid starter, to go along with Colby Lewis and Alexi Ogando.

LA Dodgers
If the Dodgers ownership issues ever get solved, with the young core of players they have, they could put in a very serious bid. With the franchise struggling, and Hiroki Kuroda’s $12M coming off the books, expect the Dodgers to be aggressive this offseason if a new owner is put in place. One of the most storied franchises in baseball could get a huge boost in having Darvish come to town. Clayton Kershaw and Darvish could create a very formidable duo on the mound.

While other teams such as the Washington Nationals, Baltimore Orioles, Chicago White Sox and Seattle Mariners have shown interest, I feel as though these five teams are the best possible fit. They have the money, and they have the willingness to shell it out to the right player.

I believe a posting fee near $65,000,000 will gain the negotiating rights to Yu Darvish. While the Yankees and Red Sox are always dangerous, I think that CJ Wilson is the biggest wildcard in the situation. If he walks from the Rangers, look for them to be very aggressive with Darvish. The winning team will likely have to cough up around 6 years and $75M in a contract, meaning the total amount spent by the team would be around $130M over 6 years. For that kind of money, these teams better be sure they are getting the ace they are looking for to take them over the top.

http://mlbreports.com/2011/09/17/darvish/

[Sour Masher]

There is no way I'd pay 130 million over 6 years for Darvish, especially with his usage history. It just seems nuts to me. Spend that money developing your own talent that you can control for a fraction of the costs. Tim Lincecum still hasn't earned close to 130 million. Neither has Kershaw, and Matt Moore won't see that kind of cash for many years. I just have to believe there is a better way to spend 130 million than an arm with question marks. Hell, if it were legal (is it legal?), I'd bet the Rays would trade Matt Moore for 100 million .

[Roy Hobbs]

You're wrong about one thing. Just because of the work load players receive in that league doesn't mean there are question marks about Darvish's arm. He hasn't had any arm trouble that I'm aware of.

[Sour Masher]

I suppose you are right, but historical precedents for pitchers switching over suggests that a 6 year deal paying max value wouldn't be a great idea, and historical precedents for extremely high pitch counts on young arms suggest risk as well.

My point is, I don't know if I'd pay that kind of money for any pitcher who has never pitched in MLB, and I certainly would not pay that much for a pitcher who went over 140 pitches 9 times in 2010, like Darvish did, or over 120 pitches 20 times. I couldn't find 2011 pitch counts, but I imagine they were also very high.

http://mopupduty.com/index.php/yu-darvish-pitch-count/

[rhd]

I suppose you are right, but historical precedents for pitchers switching over suggests that a 6 year deal paying max value wouldn't be a great idea, and historical precedents for extremely high pitch counts on young arms suggest risk as well.

My point is, I don't know if I'd pay that kind of money for any pitcher who has never pitched in MLB, and I certainly would not pay that much for a pitcher who went over 140 pitches 9 times in 2010, like Darvish did, or over 120 pitches 20 times. I couldn't find 2011 pitch counts, but I imagine they were also very high.

http://mopupduty.com/index.php/yu-darvish-pitch-count/

Personally, I wouldnt be too concerned about Darvish's health. Pitch counts are important, but I think there are misconceptions over what constitutes abuse and overuse. Pitchers used to routinely throw 125-135 pitches a game in a four-man rotation and I dont recall significantly more serious arm injuries back then as opposed to now. Also, I think the idea that Japanese pitchers are routinely overused is a misconception. Pitchers over there generally pitch once a week instead of every 5 days. That along the fact that the Japanese season is only about 140 games indicates that even if the per game pitch counts are slightly higher than here, the yearly pitch counts likely will be significantly lower.

Another thing to keep in mind about Darvish is that even if he gets posted, it doesnt mean he's coming here as the decision to sign is completely his. He hasnt indicated that he wants to come, and altho I think that it would be hard for him to say no to the type of money he'll be offered, he may prefer to stay in Japan and be the biggest fish in the pond as opposed to a somewhat smaller fish in a bigger pond, particularly in light of what has happenned to Dice-K.

Edit:
Another thing re: Darvish and pitch counts. Most Japanese starters are smallish, i.e. around 6'0" and under. Smaller pitchers may be more susceptible to increased stress on their arms, and thus more prone to serious arm injuries, due to higher pitch counts because they have less 'leverage' than taller pitchers (dont really know, but it would seem to stand to reason). Darvish doesnt have this concern, as he is a very 'projectible' 6'5" (a pretty 'ideal' height for starters). Also, I do believe in strict pitch counts for younger pitchers (under 24 y/o or so). Darvish is 25 y/o now, and is past this 'injury nexus' w/o having suffered a major arm injury, to my knowledge.

[Sour Masher]

I know I was going off topic in talking about real baseball worth. RHD makes valid points that should keep him on fantasy radar, and one big one that brings me back to my original concern long ago--no one knows for sure he'd come over here. He hasn't shown a strong desire to do so in the past. My point now is about his real world baseball value. I think any real team would be nuts to invest 130 million in Darvish, for all of the reasons mentioned so far. Of course, we'd be nuts not to conisder him as a propsect and potential a set to our roto and fantasy teams.

[Roy Hobbs]

Report: Darvish to post after Winter Meetings
Yu Darvish is likely to be posted for MLB teams following the Winter Meetings, according to Ken Rosenthal of FOXSports.com.
There was some speculation that Darvish wouldn't be made available this offseason, but his posting period is now expected to take place sometime after next week's meetings. Rosenthal cautions that it's still not official, and that issues with his Japanese club still need to be worked out, though his divorce settlement is reportedly not a factor. The Yankees, Nationals, Red Sox, and Blue Jays are potential landing spots for Darvish, who could require $50 million in order to secure exclusive negotiating rights.