Announcement

Collapse
No announcement yet.

Announcement

Collapse
No announcement yet.

2K11: Derek Jeter

Collapse
X
 
  • Filter
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts

  • 2K11: Derek Jeter

    Yankees GM Brian Cashman suggested Tuesday that Derek Jeter might finish his career as an outfielder.

    Cashman was responding to a fan's question while doing a radio spot for WFAN in New York. Jeter doesn't have great range at the shortstop position now and it will only get worse as he climbs toward age 40. If the Yanks find a viable replacement for him within the next couple of years, a position change would make some sense. The 36-year-old inked a three-year, $51 million contract earlier this offseason with an $8 million player option for 2014.
    Source: Amanda Rykoff on Twitter

    Doesn't affect 2011 so much and he should still log 600+ABs and 100 runs, but his skill set has definitely slipped.

    Average EYE, no power, slightly above league-average speed and he hit 66% GBs last year. That is scary and you want to see that from Jose Tabata or Peter Bourjos, not Jeter.

    Value will be tied to amassing a gazillion ABs.
    Find that level above your head and help you reach it.

  • #2
    Originally posted by DJBeasties View Post
    Value will be tied to amassing a gazillion ABs.
    Yes, runs will still be a sure fire strength in 2011. I also think he'll get his average back up above .290, with a chance at .310. Those categories alone keep him in the top 8 at his position, in that cluster below Hanley, Tulo and Reyes that includes Rollins, Drew, Andrus and Alexei Ramirez. Where he slots among Rollins, Drew, Andrus and Alexei depends on what stats you most desire from the SS position. In terms of overall fantasy value in 2011, I think those five are so close that it's probably a toss up.

    Comment


    • #3
      The problem with projecting his BABIP to rise back up to career levels is that his balls in play are no longer hit with the same authority they used to be. When your GB% goes up significantly, and your LD rate goes down significantly, and your speed is slightly above league average, your BABIP should go down. The .270 BA he put up wasn't due to bad luck.

      The main problem with projecting 700 PA with high Runs scored totals is that if Jeter hits .270 or less for the first few months of the season, and the Yankees are struggling at all (a very realistic possibility), then I think that they move him down in the order to the 7 or 8 spot. This takes down his PA, and has a big impact on Runs.

      The days of Jeter being untouchable are over. His spot in the lineup is no longer rock solid, and given his terrible numbers last season, you're risking a lot that he won't lose his most valuable asset, hitting near the top of the lineup.

      Last season was so out of line with his career stats that I'm marking it down as a blip for now, but it puts him in too much danger for me to bid aggressively on him.
      Larry David was once being heckled, long before any success. Heckler says "I'm taking my dog over to fuck your mother, weekly." Larry responds "I hate to tell you this, but your dog isn't liking it."

      Comment


      • #4
        If he wasn't a Yankee, he might actually be a little undervalued this season. But his team and name will probably keep him at or even above value.
        “Let me never fall into the vulgar mistake of dreaming that I am persecuted whenever I am contradicted.”
        -Ralph Waldo Emerson

        Comment


        • #5
          Originally posted by Teenwolf View Post
          The problem with projecting his BABIP to rise back up to career levels is that his balls in play are no longer hit with the same authority they used to be. When your GB% goes up significantly, and your LD rate goes down significantly, and your speed is slightly above league average, your BABIP should go down.
          That's the problem I've always had with BABIP. As I understand it, BABIP doesn't account for the difference between line drives, hard-hit ground balls, softly-hit ground balls, and fly balls. It seems to me that hitters who hit more LDs and hard-hit GBs will have above-average batting averages and those who hit lots of two-hoppers and "can of corn" FBs will be below average; and conversely, pitchers who give up more of the former and less of the latter will have higher ERAs and BABIP.

          Getting back to the subject--I think Jeter will have a mild comeback season offensively, better than 2010 but nowhere near his best. Call him a solid second-tier SS, based on runs if nothing else.
          Only the madman is absolutely sure. -Robert Anton Wilson, novelist (1932-2007)

          Faith is believing what you know ain't so. -Mark Twain, author and humorist (1835-1910)

          A great many people think they are thinking when they are merely rearranging their prejudices.
          -- William James

          Comment


          • #6
            Just saw this on RotoWorld:

            Yankees manager Joe Girardi hinted Tuesday that Derek Jeter and Brett Gardner may both bat leadoff this season.
            "You could see two different lineups, one for right-handers and one for left-handers,'' suggested Girardi. "You might have a different leadoff hitter. Against lefties, Gardy might bat ninth.'' It's actually not a bad idea. Jeter batted just .246/.316/.317 with a .633 OPS against right-handed pitching last season while Gardner -- a left-handed hitter -- batted .287/.387/.391 against righties. If Girardi goes ahead with this idea, Gardner's value takes a nice little jump. Jeter's value would essentially stay the same since he would likely only be bumped to the No. 2 spot against righties.

            This does make more of a difference for Gardner, but it's also the first step in Jeter being moved off the lead off spot. I guess Swisher would be moved to the 6th spot when Jeter hits 2nd.
            I'm unconsoled I'm lonely, I am so much better than I used to be.

            The Weakerthans Aside

            Comment


            • #7
              Funny, I was just talking about this today. If you're moving Jeter out of the leadoff spot you're acknowledging that he doesn't belong at the top of the order. Given his ridiculous GB% and declining speed, he's probably a worse #2 hitter than he is as a leadoff man. Move him down to 6 or 7 against righties if you're serious. Which I don't think they are, but I actually think that Gardner/Jeter 1-2 is worse than Jeter-Swisher, and that may be what they end up doing.

              Comment


              • #8
                Originally posted by DJBeasties View Post
                Doesn't affect 2011 so much and he should still log 600+ABs and 100 runs, but his skill set has definitely slipped.

                Average EYE, no power, slightly above league-average speed and he hit 66% GBs last year. That is scary and you want to see that from Jose Tabata or Peter Bourjos, not Jeter.

                Value will be tied to amassing a gazillion ABs.
                Value tied to the gazillion ABs AND the fact that shortstop SUCKS this year, especially in AL-Onlys. But even in Mixed Leagues, it's 2 deep then question marks abound.

                Comment


                • #9
                  Originally posted by Teenwolf View Post
                  The problem with projecting his BABIP to rise back up to career levels is that his balls in play are no longer hit with the same authority they used to be. When your GB% goes up significantly, and your LD rate goes down significantly, and your speed is slightly above league average, your BABIP should go down. The .270 BA he put up wasn't due to bad luck.

                  The main problem with projecting 700 PA with high Runs scored totals is that if Jeter hits .270 or less for the first few months of the season, and the Yankees are struggling at all (a very realistic possibility), then I think that they move him down in the order to the 7 or 8 spot. This takes down his PA, and has a big impact on Runs.

                  The days of Jeter being untouchable are over. His spot in the lineup is no longer rock solid, and given his terrible numbers last season, you're risking a lot that he won't lose his most valuable asset, hitting near the top of the lineup.

                  Last season was so out of line with his career stats that I'm marking it down as a blip for now, but it puts him in too much danger for me to bid aggressively on him.
                  They should be, but they aren't. The rules don't apply to him. If they did, he'd already be gone from short... or never would've been the shortstop once A-Rod arrived. He dictates the terms. In theory, you have it pegged, but I highly doubt that's how we say it play out. Intangibles, Jesse, INTANGIBLES!!!

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Jeter's No. 2 spot in the lineup may stay, but if he hits a soft .255 then you won't really benefit from the extra ABs elsewhere. He'd drag you down in AVG.

                    He's changed his approach in the batter's box in the spring. If it doesn't work, he's in some trouble.
                    finished 10th in this 37th yr in 11-team-only NL 5x5
                    own picks 1, 2, 5, 6, 9 in April 2022 1st-rd farmhand draft
                    won in 2017 15 07 05 04 02 93 90 84

                    SP SGray 16, TWalker 10, AWood 10, Price 3, KH Kim 2, Corbin 10
                    RP Bednar 10, Bender 10, Graterol 2
                    C Stallings 2, Casali 1
                    1B Votto 10, 3B ERios 2, 1B Zimmerman 2, 2S Chisholm 5, 2B Hoerner 5, 2B Solano 2, 2B LGarcia 10, SS Gregorius 17
                    OF Cain 14, Bader 1, Daza 1

                    Comment

                    Working...
                    X