Phillies Farm System

[heyelander]

Great conversation over on PhuturePhillies.com with Kevin Goldstein.

http://phuturephillies.com/2011/02/27/qa-with-kevin-goldstein-2/#more-8947

phuturephillies: Lets start with an easy question. How would you rate the Phillies farm system now compared to this time last season?

Kevin Goldstein: Well, I had them 24th last year, and they are significantly higher than that on this year’s org rankings, which will be out later in the week. It’s a very difficult system to assess, as it has the potential to be a monster, and a potential to be a nightmare. After Brown and the two relievers, we’re talking about a Top 11 that is nothing buy guys who played in Low A and/or short-season leagues in 2010. There’s a ton of upside here, but obviously a ton of risk as well.

[heyelander]

Lakewoods "Blueclaws Blog" is doing a nice job of covering the phillies minor league action now that spring training minor league games have started. The "teams" are far from set now with 20+ guys, especially catchers, still up with the MLB team. Regardless, a bit of minor league news here.

http://blog.blueclaws.com/

One disappointment, it looks like Altherr is playing CF. Not sure what happened with the 3B experiment, whether it is ongoing or already scrapped.

[heyelander]

apparently Aumont has looked really good this spring so far. He's been pitching with the AAA work out group and getting really positive reviews. He's pitching as a reliever again though and has all but ditched his change-up third pitch so fantasy value hasn't been boosted any by the improvement, but maybe he's not a bust for the big league club.

In another eyebrow raising result, Joe Savery has been seeing really positive results this spring as well... as a first baseman. He's been killing the ball at the plate and making nice plays in the field. This is a hail mary, and the phillies don't have any need for a 1B for the next 5 years, but it's an interesting story line none the less.

[heyelander]

Lehigh Valley Roster:

http://phuturephillies.com/2011/04/02/more-lehigh-valley-news/

Not much to get excited about here. The offense is a bunch of AAAA guys. Maybe Barfield, Moss and Young could provide some short term insurance at the ML level but there aren't any prospects here.
Worley is the only guy worth watching in the starting rotation, possibly Naylor once he gets back from the DL, but he's more of a 5th starter injury insurance guy, if that.
The bull-pen has a couple of interesting guys in Mathieson, Stutes, Schwimmer and Zagurski any of which could see decent time on the ML team this year. Mathieson needs to improve his command. Stutes really impressed in ST this year and there was talk of him making the ML team. Either Stutes and Schwimmer could be closer in waiting material, but that's way off in the distance. No one really here besides maybe a flier on worley has any fantasy value.

Reading roster:

http://phuturephillies.com/2011/04/01/lehigh-valley-and-reading-current-rosters/

Not much here to be thrilled with either. I'll be watching to see if Rizzotti can follow up his amazing 2010 season (.343/.430/.555 across 3 levels), if slick fielding SS Freddy Galvis (repeating AA although he's just 21) can figure out how to hit at least passably, if 2B prospect Harold Garcia can keep hitting after a breakout 2010 (.305/.365/.441 with 26 SB across 2 levels), and if Cody Overbeck could possibly be real or if he was just old for A+ last season)

On the starting staff Austin Hyatt has had great results up to now but questionable stuff. He's always been old for his league and needs to keep pitching well in AA for anyone to really start believing. Josh Zied is in the same boat. JC Ramirez probably has the best stuff on the staff and needs to work on his control and show improvement.

Of the relievers, Aumont has gotten rave reviews throughout ST. Converted back to a RP after a season of starting, it's time to see if he can be the phillies closer down the line. Rosenberg was talked about a good bit two seasons ago but lost last season to injury. DeFratus had a fantastic season last year and was the bloggers choice for phillies CIW, but I'm not even sure if he closes over Aumont this year. Really depends on what the phillies developmental staff wants to try and do with Aumont.

I think Tyson Gillies starts here once he comes off the DL as well and after a lost season last year I'll really be watching to see if he can recapture the buzz that had him a top 10 phillies prospect coming into 2010.

Garcia could possibly put himself on some people's radar, but pretty much everyone on this roster can be ignored for fantasy purposes.

Clearwater Roster:

http://phuturephillies.com/2011/04/01/clearwater-and-lakewood-rosters/

Now things get interesting. The graduating class from last year's Sally Champions moves up to Clearwater. The phillies top C prospect (Valle), 2B(Cesar Hernandez), OF (Singleton, James), and SP (Cosart, Colvin, May) will all be playing for clearwater.
Valle showed good power (16HR) and improved defense last year, but needs to work on contact and pitch recognition as he struck out a ton last year (101K).
Hernandez had a breakout season last year in Williamsport (A-) (.325/.390/.392). He shows little power, but makes excellent contact, plays good defense and has good speed (32 SB in just 65 games).
Most everyone knows Singleton now. He broke out with an amazing first half at Lakewood last season and while he cooled off a bit int he second half, as n 18 year old he put up excellent numbers for the year (.290/.393/.479). He showed excellent plate discipline (62BB/74K) for a power hitter and rocketed up the prospects lists (RHD has him at #26 now). Data is limited though. 2010 was his first season as a pro and 2011 sees him moving to LF from 1B. It certainly isn't make or break or anything for Singleton, but more data will be nice to see.
James is a prototypical Phillies MiLB OF. Toolsey but unpolished. He was drafted as a P and converted to OF after 1 season. He's tall, fast and has a ton of projection, but is getting older and needs to show substantial improvement this year or he could slip off the prospect radar.

The entire starting staff is intriguing but has questions. Can Cosart stay healthy, can Colvin build on a breakout year, can May improve on questionable control, Pettibone has seen fairly good results but his stuff is questionable. Reports on Julio Rodriguez have been all over the place. His FB has been reported as sitting anywhere from 87 to 93 MPH. Regardless, after a promotion to Lakewood last year his K rate jumped to 14.4/9 and he had a breakout second half. I have no idea how he did it and no idea if it will continue. 2011 will certainly be interesting.

For fantasy purposes, Singleton, Cosart and maybe Colvin are all probably rostered already. May, Valle and Hernanez should be watched this year. If things click for James this year, who knows.

Lakewood Roster:

http://phuturephillies.com/2011/04/01/clearwater-and-lakewood-rosters/

Lottery ticket central. The phillies have drafted a lot of raw athletic players the last few years and a bunch of them will be trying to show what they can do in Lakewood this year.

C Cameron Rupp was the phillies third round pick in 2010 out of U of Texas. He is projected to have good power, but needs to work on contact. He's a decent defender and should stay behind the plate.
The infield is of limited interest.
The OF is packed.
Aaron Altherr had an excellent season last year (.339/.411/.751 across 2 teams) and has been showing up in the middle of most Phillies top-10 lists. He's shown little power so far, but he is young and projectable. He also has good speed (12SB in 55 games). There was talk of trying him at 3B during spring training, but it never materialized. I'm not sure if he even got any time there.
Domingo Santana had a forgettable 2010. He started off in Lakewood as the youngest player in the league (17) and never got on track. When short season ball started in July, he was sent down, but still couldn't get his season going. He is a huge guy and projects to have a ton of power, but in 2010 he had a hard time making contact, striking out 149 times.
Zach Collier was another toolsy raw OF taken in the supplement first round of the 2008 draft. He was unimpressive in 2009 and injured all of 2010. Just 20 years old it's too early to give up on him, but he needs to show something this year to get his name back into the prospect discussion.
Anthony Hewitt was taken in the first round of the 2008 draft. Hewitt looks like a NFL LB and probably plays baseball about as well as one. He's 21 years old and repeating Lakewood. There's still time for him to click but he's shown no signs of it happening.
Miguel Alvarez had a very nice 2010 season at Williamsport though at 21 he was a old for the level. He needs to continue to show positive results in a more age appropriate league this year.

LHP Jesse Biddle highlights the starting rotation. The Phillies' first round pick in 2011 had a very nice season last year (10.3 K/9 and 2.5 K/BB ratios across 2 levels) and has gotten rave reviews during instructional league. Biddle stands 6'6" with the body to add more strength. Reports had his fastball hitting 96 and he throws a slider and changeup. A good season at Lakewood and he could put himself into the discussion with Cosart/Colvin/May.

Lots of interesting guys here but no one that needs to be drafted any time soon aside from possibly Biddle. Take a flyer on him late in a draft this year or you may be using your first round pick on him next year. If you really don't see anyone worth drafting in your league Altherr might be worth a shot as well.

Extended writeups on a lot of these guys can be found at http://phuturephillies.com/profiles/

[heyelander]

Five Questions on the Phillies Upcoming Minor League Season - The Good Phight

http://www.thegoodphight.com/2011/4/7/2091291/five-questions-on-the-phillies-upcoming-minor-league-season#storyjump

1. Who's primed for a breakout campaign?
2. Can Jarred Cosart stay healthy?
3. Who can help the big league club this year?
4. Can the infamous "Cliff Lee trio" bounce back?
5. Who's trade bait?

Their answers at the link.

[heyelander]

zoinks! now there's a pretty box score. Only 2 K's from Cosart is a bit of a let down, but that's really nit-picking when you look at this. Hell, savery went 4-4 as a DH!

[willthethrill]

From philly.com today:

Clearwater righty Brody Colvin was placed on the disabled list yesterday after leaving Sunday's start in the third inning. He's a highly touted prospect and several news outlets are saying it's a back injury.

[heyelander]

Looks like singleton left last nights game with a leg injury after sliding into second. No news yet on severity.

Savery goes 2-3 last night and his average plummets 22 points!

so far, playing first base in A+ in his first year as a position player:
14-18, 3 2b, 1 hr, 2BB, 0K .778 avg

ha... comment from Phuture Phillies.com

I remember a lot of people were skeptical of the early success of a particular pitcher converted to hitter due to the small sample size. The pitchers name was…..Babe Ruth.

Come on Savery lets make it happen!

[heyelander]

thegoodphight.com has their prospect round up for week 1 online:

http://www.thegoodphight.com/2011/4/11/2102300/phillies-prospect-roundup-new-beginnings#storyjump

a couple of notes on hot starts for some interesting suspects:

Leandro Castro, OF-R, Clearwater: The Dominican outfielder slipped to #29 on this past offseason's Top 30 list after a so-so offensive year at Lakewood. In the first week of 2011, however, he flashed some of the same power that put him on the prospect radar back in his 2009 stint with Williamsport, clubbing a pair of homers as part of a 7-for-15 week. He's also back to playing right field after ceding that position to Domingo Santana and Anthony Hewitt a year ago -- not an earth-shattering move up the defensive spectrum, to be sure, but one that's certainly helpful for a guy who may not profile as an everyday corner outfielder.

Cody Overbeck, 3B-R, Reading: A couple of things kept Overbeck off my Top 30: he turned 24 in June of last year, didn't make enough contact in Double-A (30.2% K), and while fielding percentage isn't the greatest proxy in the world, a .919 mark in pro ball has me skeptical about his glove at the hot corner. That said, the dude does have raw power, so if he can make enough contact to make that power usable, he's might have a shot as an Eric Hinske four corners reserve type. How he fares in Reading this year will go a long way toward determining whether that's a plausible career path for Overbeck, and a 5-for-15 start with 2 long balls is definitely encouraging.

[heyelander]

Singleton back playing. DHed two nights ago and was in LF last night.

Brown is playing in extended spring training games now.

Lakewood line-up is terrible so far.

Savery barely keeping his BA over .500.

Pettibone has looked great in clearwater so far, May, not so much.

[heyelander]

yep, control problems. He had issues in clearwater last year, got sent back to lakewood and was excellent, not back in clearwater and having issues again. Not sure if it's the level or he's a slow starter or what. Hopefully the control comes around. I'd be more concerned in a month if it's still like this.

[heyelander]

Bah, Harold Garcia tore his ACL and is out for the season.

May had a nice start last night, 7IP, 4H, 0BB, 6K, 1ER

[heyelander]

Hmm... been a month since I posted.

Lakewood hasn't been hitting much, but a couple of guys have been coming around. In a shocking turn of events, Hewitt is hitting .265 with a decent bit of power. He still has a miserable 61K/7BB ratio though so this hot streak seems difficult to sustain. Regardless, it's positive, so go Hewitt.

Zach Collier had a good month of May. He was a sandwich pick in 2008, had a poor 2009 season, and was hurt all of 2010. He started off slow this year, but has really come around. after hitting just .171/.244/.268 in April, he's gone .329/.393/.481 this month. He also has 12 SB.

Everyone started off kind of slow this year, probably leading to me not posting much, but things have been coming around for most of the top prospects.

Cosart is 5-3 with a 2.87ERA with 47K/21BB in 59.2 innings.
May is 3-2 with a 4.13ERA and a 61/23 in 48 innings. He is still wildly inconsistent from game to game though.
Colvin was hurt for a while but is back pitching now.
Biddle has struggled a bit, but it's his first full season of pro ball and he's striking out nearly 9 batters/inning so not really anything to be concerned about.

As for the hitters, Sebastian Valle has been hitting very well in A+. He currently sits at .308/.325/.458. He only has 2 walks in 120ABs though.

Jonathan Singleton has struggled a bit. he's currently hitting just .250/.351/.318. The lack of power is mildly concerning, but he's learning a new position (OF) and is one of the youngest players in A+. I'm not all too worried, but he's not on the crazy fast-track some people were touting last year.

Aaron Altheer continues to struggle.

[heyelander]

Singleton moving back to 1B, at least for the time being. He's still young and he hurt his ankle earlier this year. Perhaps a move back to 1B allows the ankle to heal and allows him to focus a bit more on his hitting rather than trying to learn how to his professional pitchers and a new position. I don't think the move to the OF plan is forever scrapped.

[heyelander]

After years of toolsy OFs and prep pitchers, the phillies went nuts on Catchers and IFs this draft. Their first pick (sandwich) is a 1 tool player... He doesn't know how to hit, but if he does manage to hit something it goes a long way. After that it was prep SS, catcher, SS, 3B, SS, Catcher the rest of the draft. There are some really interesting names in there who have strong college commitments. I see a couple of them being played off against each other with only one of the 2 or 3 being signed.