2K20 Trevor Bauer

[madducks]

Trevor Bauer wants to pitch every fourth day and will prioritize that when he becomes a free agent next winter.

I think when people actually sit down and look at the information that I have and look at the case that I can make that I would actually be better pitching on four days than I am on five days. When they see that information and then look at the potential WAR benefits, potential wins that could add to a team, the way it helps, especially, other members of the rotation to keep them fresh. If teams actually take me seriously and sit down and look at the merits of it, I think they’ll start seeing some of those things and it won’t seem so crazy. It only seems crazy because no one is doing it right now. But I’m very convicted in the fact that, one, I can do it. Two, I would be better doing it. And three, it would be a benefit to my team.

[joncarlos]

I think Bauer could be huge this year. He's working with his Driveline guys. He had some monster spin rate games last year which may or may not have been because he decided to adopt the pine tar approach that he criticized the Astros for. The Reds' offense is better. He has a full year in the NL.

But then I see that hs's only had an elite ERA once in the last ... well, ever really.

2014: 153ip, 4.18 ERA, 1.38 WHIP
2015: 176ip, 4.55 ERA, 1.31 WHIP
2016: 190ip, 4.26 ERA, 1.31 WHIP
2017: 176ip, 4.19 ERA, 1.37 WHIP
2018: 175ip, 2.21 ERA, 1.09 WHIP
2019: 213ip, 4.48 ERA, 1.25 WHIP

Yes he gets a boatload of Ks (K/9 over 10.5 each of the last 4 years) and has been relatively durable. But he's an inveterate tinkerer and describes himself as "the least athletic person in baseball" so he's always so hard to trust.

With so many injuries to the top of the SP pool I can see him getting pushed way up. I'm just not sure if I'm there.

[Gregg]

With so many injuries to the top of the SP pool I can see him getting pushed way up. I'm just not sure if I'm there.

I am not there. He will go for too much at auction for the stats that you get.

[Ken]

I am not there. He will go for too much at auction for the stats that you get.

I tend to agree.

And it is worth a discussion on the pivot for all the injuries up top. Doesn't it mean we should wait even more on pitching? Not push up mediocre pitchers but the inverse. If they are all the same, just wait?

[joncarlos]

I tend to agree.

And it is worth a discussion on the pivot for all the injuries up top. Doesn't it mean we should wait even more on pitching? Not push up mediocre pitchers but the inverse. If they are all the same, just wait?

Grienke, Corbin, Strasburg, Darvish are all guys I really like and I was pushing them before. I'm OK pushing them a little further now. If there are less elite pitchers and everyone is streaming/cobbling, a guy who gets you 190 innings and 230 Ks (or just 190 innings of elite ratios, ala Greinke) should be even more valuable. I think.

I don't think I'm ready to push Degrom or Cole over any of the top 4 bats though. And I'm not sure I'm ready to push a guy like Bauer or even Snell or Giolito even higher.

I might also push the closers I trust a bit more, since I need more roster spots for SP and thus less for RP.

I'm starting a new 50 round draft and hold soon (today maybe?) and I think if I can go one ace, 2 good closers, a crapton of offense and no SP2 until like round 13, I might be OK with that.

[Pauly]

You can count me among the Bauer believers, for a few reasons. First he was pretty damn good in Cleveland before the trade last year, and reports are that his velo was down a bit in Cincy, which, along with the park probably had a lot to do with his propensity to give up HR in those 10 starts.

We are still talking about a guy with tremendous skills, who gets a ton of Ks with a really low walk rate, and some of the best spin rates in the game. I read that he was throwing his cutter a bit too much last year and not throwing the curve as much, which Im sure he is aware of. If you throw out his Cincy starts last year, his numbers are great; if you dont, his numbers are still really good.

That bad part is the multitude of SP injuries has overtaken the small sample price suppression, which sucks! Still, he has the skills to draft up there with all the second tier guys to me.

[chancellor]

Grienke, Corbin, Strasburg, Darvish are all guys I really like and I was pushing them before. I'm OK pushing them a little further now. If there are less elite pitchers and everyone is streaming/cobbling, a guy who gets you 190 innings and 230 Ks (or just 190 innings of elite ratios, ala Greinke) should be even more valuable. I think.

I don't think I'm ready to push Degrom or Cole over any of the top 4 bats though. And I'm not sure I'm ready to push a guy like Bauer or even Snell or Giolito even higher.

I agree, though I'd put Giolito right in with the four you have listed above.

Bauer...nowhere near those pitchers in my book.

[Ken]

Still, he has the skills to draft up there with all the second tier guys to me.

How do you rationalize that those skills "worked" in 2018 but not 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, or 2019?

[Pauly]

How do you rationalize that those skills "worked" in 2018 but not 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, or 2019?

They worked pretty well in the first half of 2019, did they not?

[umjewman]

I like him this year, but I’m a notorious sucker for high K guys, frequently to my detriment. I’ll probably even get back on the Chris Archer train this year, vomit.

[Ken]

They worked pretty well in the first half of 2019, did they not?

Yeah! Where can I do a 1st half of 2019 league?

On a serious note though, his 4.11 FIP and 4.44 xFIP in the 1st half wasn't exactly enticing.

But again, even if you buy in at those levels, why do you trust 2018 and the 1st half of 2019 and not the rest of his career?

[Pauly]

Yeah! Where can I do a 1st half of 2019 league?

So again, why do you trust 2018 and the 1st half of 2019 and not the rest of his career?

2018 and the first half of 2019 make an upward trend to me. I think there at least a few factors working against him (mental, velocity, park/league adjustment) in the second half, enough to throw out the last 10 starts. And if Bauer was going into this season with 2018 and the Cleveland half of his 2019, everyone would be all aboard.

As far as buying his stats in that timeframe...it is all backed up by the underlying skills, spin rate, swinging strike, K/BB etc. I am fine letting folks discount him based on 10 starts.

[Gregg]

2018 and the first half of 2019 make an upward trend to me. I think there at least a few factors working against him (mental, velocity, park/league adjustment) in the second half, enough to throw out the last 10 starts. And if Bauer was going into this season with 2018 and the Cleveland half of his 2019, everyone would be all aboard.

As far as buying his stats in that timeframe...it is all backed up by the underlying skills, spin rate, swinging strike, K/BB etc. I am fine letting folks discount him based on 10 starts.

Just for the record while I am not on board the Trevor Bauer band wagon, I would take him if the auction price is right. If you and I were in the same auction, I would bid you up.

[Ken]

2018 and the first half of 2019 make an upward trend to me. I think there at least a few factors working against him (mental, velocity, park/league adjustment) in the second half, enough to throw out the last 10 starts. And if Bauer was going into this season with 2018 and the Cleveland half of his 2019, everyone would be all aboard.

As far as buying his stats in that timeframe...it is all backed up by the underlying skills, spin rate, swinging strike, K/BB etc. I am fine letting folks discount him based on 10 starts.

You missed the edit - too quick on your feet. If a 4.11 FIP in the 1st half is the upside, he's going way too high.

[Pauly]

You missed the edit - too quick on your feet. If a 4.11 FIP in the 1st half is the upside, he's going way too high.

Im not saying it is the same thing or you said this, but everyone is awful quick to buy in on Giolito for the same reasons they wont buy in on Bauer.