A discussion on inflation

[Ken]

Agreed. I call it Situational Inflation.

I was thinking about starting a thread on it.

I'm anxious to read.

I wonder if you'll talk about pitcher vs hitter inflation (something I don't personally look at as I'm not convinced that it's real, but I'm interested to hear more perspectives)

[DMT]

Great stuff Ken, thanks!

[Ken]

Related to this discussion, I assume I am not alone in starting my game plan each year by looking at what stats a championship team has at the end of the year and trying my best to match or exceed those stats with my projected stats.

You know, I've done that many times. And I think it's an impossible task.

What I've found is that the most accurate projections when it comes to relative comparisons between players are conservative in nature. They underestimate totals. You don't ever see a projection that has someone hitting 50 HR, but there's usually a few hitters that reach that range.

In addition, in keeper leagues it takes a year long commitment to win, you can't win at the auction. That is to say, the nature of keeper leagues means that there will be value gained at the trade deadline from teams near the bottom. In my experience, in a deep league you have to partake in that. Your team has to be better than what you could possibly get at the auction to end up winning.

So, if I actually try to reach the stats of a championship team, the only way I can get close is by punting a few categories in order to match my goals in others.

But that's not useful. That doesn't maximize the total output of my auction.

So instead I just shoot for gaining the most standings points possible. It's never to the level of a championship team (due to the reasons above), but all I can do is try to maximize. So that's what I strive for. Typically it's around 3rd place stats, but I don't specifically shoot for 3rd place either, I just take every opportunity to maximize my standings points. If that ends up 5th based on 2020 projections against 2019 standings, that's fine. If it ends up 2nd, that's fine too. Just working for a local maximum, not an absolute number.

[Pauly]

You know, I've done that many times. And I think it's an impossible task.

What I've found is that the most accurate projections when it comes to relative comparisons between players are conservative in nature. They underestimate totals. You don't ever see a projection that has someone hitting 50 HR, but there's usually a few hitters that reach that range.

In addition, in keeper leagues it takes a year long commitment to win, you can't win at the auction. That is to say, the nature of keeper leagues means that there will be value gained at the trade deadline from teams near the bottom. In my experience, in a deep league you have to partake in that. Your team has to be better than what you could possibly get at the auction to end up winning.

So, if I actually try to reach the stats of a championship team, the only way I can get close is by punting a few categories in order to match my goals in others.

But that's not useful. That doesn't maximize the total output of my auction.

So instead I just shoot for gaining the most standings points possible. It's never to the level of a championship team (due to the reasons above), but all I can do is try to maximize. So that's what I strive for. Typically it's around 3rd place stats, but I don't specifically shoot for 3rd place either, I just take every opportunity to maximize my standings points. If that ends up 5th based on 2020 projections against 2019 standings, that's fine. If it ends up 2nd, that's fine too. Just working for a local maximum, not an absolute number.

I agree that shooting for the first place stats from last year makes it impossible. I shoot for third place stats that have been averaged over a 3-5 year span (league specific). CBS is great for this because you can look at historical standings for a league, even if you just joined it this year.

The interesting part of that strategy is this year, because last year's offensive stats blow the averages out of the water in every league I was in. I have to embrace the hope that the juiced ball is going away, but I still felt like I was forced to adjust everything offensively up higher than the third-place averages (HR, RBI and R), which again, makes everything start to look unattainable. Just a weird dynamic with the juiced ball.

[Gregg]

I'm anxious to read.

I wonder if you'll talk about pitcher vs hitter inflation (something I don't personally look at as I'm not convinced that it's real, but I'm interested to hear more perspectives)

I will start one for discussion in the next couple of days (maybe sooner depending on work).

I will definitely talk about pitcher vs hitter inflation. It may be the poster boy as applied to my league.

One of the things that has been holding me back is that I believe that situational inflation exists, but have no idea how to apply math to it. Heck I am not sure I even know how to articulate what it all means.

I have started a list to collect my thoughts.

[chancellor]

My AL only league has significantly higher hitter inflation than pitcher inflation, and has had for years. Better than half the league uses Shandler's Baseball Forecaster as their primary source, and at least four of them consider it scripture. So we have anywhere from 4-6 teams using his LIMA plan, which ends up with far fewer dollars chasing pitchers and far more dollars chasing hitters than traditional. We see very little pitcher inflation but 20-30% hitter inflation.

[Sour Masher]

I agree that shooting for the first place stats from last year makes it impossible. I shoot for third place stats that have been averaged over a 3-5 year span (league specific). CBS is great for this because you can look at historical standings for a league, even if you just joined it this year.

The interesting part of that strategy is this year, because last year's offensive stats blow the averages out of the water in every league I was in. I have to embrace the hope that the juiced ball is going away, but I still felt like I was forced to adjust everything offensively up higher than the third-place averages (HR, RBI and R), which again, makes everything start to look unattainable. Just a weird dynamic with the juiced ball.

I should have been clearer that I aim high, but don't expect to get there. I too am content to fall in that 3-5 range, but then in season, I try to make up the difference with trading. I try to find buy-lows to get me the rest of the way. Sometimes my deals seem counter-intuitive to this goal. I have traded a surplus here or there for prospects, which makes it seem to some like I am going backwards, but I do this to load up on flexible assets (elite prospects are the most universal and flexible currency in my league because of how it is set up) that i can then trade for whatever specific needs I have.

[kldub4life]

My issue with Inflation is that throughout an auction it changes which makes the need of a software program pretty essential.

Also people that go stars and scrubs (especially in a league with a smaller number of keepers) greatly impact the during auction inflation.

Each Auction kind of has its own personality. If it's an existing league with familiarity you can have an idea of what might happen if it's a league you are new to strap yourself in and get ready for the ride.

The end game or dollar days of every auction can be radically different.

One strategy I've used when I've gone stars and scrubs (or more frequently when I see others are) is throwing out "cost grabbers" a player I have no real interest in but I know will gobble up money. I do this because it can potentially add to the chance of a better player being available in the end game. But I know this isn't meant to be a strategy thread lol.

[Ken]

My issue with Inflation is that throughout an auction it changes which makes the need of a software program pretty essential.

It definitely does. But from the perspective of keeper decisions, pre-auction, we do know that inflation will take it's impact. Unless you believe you can significantly beat inflation, or unless you are very concerned that you will pay higher than normal inflation, the delta throughout the auction doesn't matter for keeper choices.

I do use my own custom software for this though, and I agree with you.

Also people that go stars and scrubs (especially in a league with a smaller number of keepers) greatly impact the during auction inflation.

Agree, although if enough use stars/scrubs, that makes the 2nd/3rd tier of players cheap in a relative sense.

Fundamentally if you truly believe in your projections, and if you have accurately translated those projections to $'s that are rooted in standings points, then it doesn't matter whether you get those points from stars or the next tier down.

As a fantasy community, we trick ourselves by confusing the concepts of reliability of projections as it relates to the spectrum across different talent levels, vs return on $s as it relates to the projections themselves. Those are two separate concepts.

Each Auction kind of has its own personality. If it's an existing league with familiarity you can have an idea of what might happen if it's a league you are new to strap yourself in and get ready for the ride.

The end game or dollar days of every auction can be radically different.

Agree with you

One strategy I've used when I've gone stars and scrubs (or more frequently when I see others are) is throwing out "cost grabbers" a player I have no real interest in but I know will gobble up money. I do this because it can potentially add to the chance of a better player being available in the end game.

I agree, although at times, we're all chasing that one guy who is falling, and no one wants to nominate him. And then he gets nominated, and bidding is out of control because everyone was counting on getting that guy since it looked like he was going to go for cheap. I've seen that happen numerous times.

But I know this isn't meant to be a strategy thread lol.

Not the case now, I just wanted to discuss formulas at the start, at this point, bring on your strategy!

[cavebird]

I know we have gone several rounds on inflation in the past Ken, and I love this thread. When I first saw it today, I was going to respond and bust your chops, but you answered those questions already. Alas, not so applicable to my main league. I do not think that "total value" is the total goal. But you responded and explained that when you are wildly imbalanced but with the best value, you can actually make trades to balance without sacrificing too much value. That is not the same for every league. For several years now, for example, my main league has had massive pitching inflation for the top and top-middle and deflation for the rest (we have 13 hitters (one catcher, but rest normal) and 11 pitchers, 6 SP and 5 RP with strict rules about who is RP and SP---nobody can be both). And getting those guys in trades is hell (some teams do it because they are in the know, but many teams because auction price is a basis for the conversation). So, balance is important in keepers, rather than pure value in some leagues (apparently not yours). Very interesting.

Your math is correct but way to complicated for a simple comparison. It is easy to see that the cheapest guy has more "value" than the most expensive (and production-best) guy---the cheap guy is $13 cheaper with $10 less value. With 25% inflation, you can buy the $10 in production at auction for $12.50---instead of $13 for the difference in keeper price. It really doesn't have to be math nerd stuff to figure it out. You can pretty much do that for any set of players in trade discussions. That all being said, the biggest key is to be right in your projections---the GIGO effect still exists. If your projections are wrong, the correct formula doesn't matter.

[cavebird]

I agree, although at times, we're all chasing that one guy who is falling, and no one wants to nominate him. And then he gets nominated, and bidding is out of control because everyone was counting on getting that guy since it looked like he was going to go for cheap. I've seen that happen numerous times.

This, I think is universal. In my main league, it is called being "Neiled" after Neil who almost always hoards his money, and when you think you can slip a guy through, he was sitting on him, and well, shit.

[Judge Jude]

I think it was mid/late 1980s when we got late in the auction and one owner had a good 20 units more than the rest of us.
we are looking at our printouts and thinking, "Who the heck is he waiting for?"

Finally he triumphantly announces, "TIM WALLACH for 1!"

"um, he was frozen by another owner."

#awkward

[ssmallz]

Ken....It's so funny that you posted this b/c that's exactly the same way I calculate inflation. It took me a while to figure it out but this method really shows you the value of keeping stars close to value in an inflation heavy league. I also use SGPs to calculate value and one thing I've done is calculate inflations for hitters and pitchers separately. This can be very helpful as sometimes overall inflation is 26% but hitter inflation is more likely 30% while pitcher inflation is only 18%. Using these numbers and tracking them historically can further help more accurately determine value

[SlideRule]

That's fair. I am being honest when I say that I don't believe that another owner or owners can change my inflation on my team, simply because if they are bidding me up, they are going to get caught with their hand in the cookie jar. And when they over pay, that makes inflation go down for everyone else.

There is a lot of great discussion here. Thanks everyone! I wanted to add one comment on what Ken says here. While I think I agree that this happens on aggregate in an auction, the tricky thing about inflation and "getting bid up" is that it only takes two owners to drive the price of a given player up high. Inflation does not affect everyone equally at the same time. If I just spent $58 on Trout, I'm probably not going to be in the bidding for Mookie Betts, but someone will be. For the two owners after me bidding each other up on Betts, it doesn't matter how much "over value" I spent on Trout; the inflation suppression of my overpay does not affect them in the Betts bidding.

I think the point of this is that if you are a numbers person (like me) and have a fancy spreadsheet that calculates real-time inflation adjustments and all sorts of bells and whistles, just remember that the available auction money is not all pooled together and used optimally. Inflation will, by definition, equal out over the entire draft, but the dynamics of one "overpay" doesn't really or immediately affect the likely inflated prices of all other players.

[cavebird]

There is a lot of great discussion here. Thanks everyone! I wanted to add one comment on what Ken says here. While I think I agree that this happens on aggregate in an auction, the tricky thing about inflation and "getting bid up" is that it only takes two owners to drive the price of a given player up high. Inflation does not affect everyone equally at the same time. If I just spent $58 on Trout, I'm probably not going to be in the bidding for Mookie Betts, but someone will be. For the two owners after me bidding each other up on Betts, it doesn't matter how much "over value" I spent on Trout; the inflation suppression of my overpay does not affect them in the Betts bidding.

I think the point of this is that if you are a numbers person (like me) and have a fancy spreadsheet that calculates real-time inflation adjustments and all sorts of bells and whistles, just remember that the available auction money is not all pooled together and used optimally. Inflation will, by definition, equal out over the entire draft, but the dynamics of one "overpay" doesn't really or immediately affect the likely inflated prices of all other players.

This is part of the tricky part about inflation and why following the numbers is foolish. The other part is, as others have noted, that inflation is not spread equally. The top players more or less suck up all the inflation; all of the values are at $20 and under players; hell in many leagues, most $5 and under guys all go for a buck. Therefore, if you chase value and refuse to overpay past what the overall inflation numbers says to do, you will end up without any top players and well, that's not good because you won't spend all of your money and your team will be bad. I think this is well enough known, but there is no way to put it in a formula, so it is hard to do anything about it scientifically; you just have to go by guy.