World Cup 2014

[johnnya24]

Draw has just been made.

USA got a really tough draw (Germany and Portugal ... two team who could win it all).

England got the nightmare draw (4 tough teams, plus the worst location ... Manaus' 99% humidity).

Group A: Brazil, Cameroon, Mexico, Croatia
Group B: Spain, Chile, Australia, Netherlands
Group C: Colombia, Cote D'Ivoire, Japan, Greece
Group D: Uruguay, Italy, Costa Rica, England
Group E: Switzerland, Ecuador, Honduras, France
Group F: Argentina, Nigeria, Iran, Bosnia-Herzegovina
Group G: Germany, Ghana, USA, Portugal
Group H: Belgium, Algeria, South Korea, Russia

[DMT]

Brutal very unlikely US makes it out of their group.

Surprised that Brazil is listed at 4.5:1 odds...I'd have figured they'd be a bigger favorite.

[johnnya24]

Brutal very unlikely US makes it out of their group.

Surprised that Brazil is listed at 4.5:1 odds...I'd have figured they'd be a bigger favorite.

Brazil are now 3/1

I think the odds are poor actually. Brazil have a relatively comfortable group, but they will face one of Spain, Holland or Chile in the Round of 16. That will be very tough. An easy group isn't always a good thing.

Brazil are a top team, but they don't have a top tier number 9, and most of the rest of the team are solid rather than spectacular (apart from Neymar). Plus they have some "adventurous" defenders, and that could cost them in a KO game.

Impossible to call this WC ... 8 teams could win it. Brazil, Argentina, Spain and Germany will be the favourites, but they all have their weaknesses. Also you cannot discount dark horses like Belgium, Columbia, Holland or Uruguay.

No European team has ever won the World Cup in the Americas.

If I were picking a winner I'd look at Argentina 9/2. They have quality and experience throughout their team.

There is no value there though. The dark horse value picks are:

Uruguay: 25/1 (amazing up front, midfield and defense maybe getting old? Plus very tough group with Italy and England.)
Columbia 20/1 (amazing up front, and lots of talent through the team ... but experience counts against them. Easy group, but very tough Round of 16 game)
Belgium 14/1 (super talented team from front to back. On paper, they might be the second best Euro team after Germany ... Spain are getting old and looking leggy. Easy group tough Round of 16 game)

France got the best draw. If they win their group, and things go to form in other groups, they almost have a free pass tot he Quarter Finals. But they cannot win unless they get lucky IMO.

Barring injuries, Belgium at 14/1 could be a nice outsider bet.

[DMT]

No European team has ever won the World Cup in the Americas.

I'd never actually put $ on a sport that I know so little about, but I don't think this is a coincidence.

[Fresno Bob]

My understanding is that none of the venues are anywhere close to being done

[johnnya24]

I'd never actually put $ on a sport that I know so little about, but I don't think this is a coincidence.

It's the heat. European teams get caught out playing in extreme temperatures. The South American teams are used to playing competitive games in extreme climates and altitudes.

[johnnya24]

My understanding is that none of the venues are anywhere close to being done

My understanding is that 2 are behind schedule, but will be ready around Jan /Feb. I think it's more of a press hype thing ... they will make a mountain out of a molehill whenever they see an opportunity.

But the roof collapse at Sao Paulo last week will apparently mean the venue for the opening match will not be ready until next April (only 2 months before the WC starts).

There could be bigger problems with political and social unrest. Brazil are even proposing bringing in emergency legislation for the period of the WC to stamp down on dissent.

[TranaGreg]

There could be bigger problems with political and social unrest. Brazil are even proposing bringing in emergency legislation for the period of the WC to stamp down on dissent.

this.

and re: the nightmare draw - being in a grouping with Germany/Portugal is about as bad as it gets.

[chancellor]

and re: the nightmare draw - being in a grouping with Germany/Portugal is about as bad as it gets.

And Ghana. Every time we've needed a win or draw against them, the US has spit the bit badly.

[johnnya24]

And Ghana. Every time we've needed a win or draw against them, the US has spit the bit badly.

Ghana have a solid midfield: Essien, Boateng, Muntari, Asamoah. They aren't the most creative-type players, but they will be tough to beat if they play to their strengths. They have a couple of decent strikers in Gyan and Ayew (who is highly touted).

I don't know much about Costa Rica, but I've heard they are a more than decent team ... I think they beat the USA in the qualifiers.

[chancellor]

I don't know much about Costa Rica, but I've heard they are a more than decent team ... I think they beat the USA in the qualifiers.

Stomped us badly, easily our worst game through qualifying. Very tough in the midfield, strong defensively. They remind me a lot of the good Aussie sides 8-12 years ago - not a lot of scoring pop, but patient, strong defensively, and can kill you on counters if you fall asleep.

[Pogues]

B, F, and H all seem like weak groups to me. Then you got some murder groups.

[johnnya24]

B, F, and H all seem like weak groups to me. Then you got some murder groups.

B is really tough ... Chile are a very good team. I'd rank them like this (groups ranked also):

3 top teams, and the 4th team is strong also

Group D: Uruguay, Italy, England, Costa Rica
Group B: Spain, Chile / Netherlands, Australia
Group G: Germany, Portugal, Ghana / USA

1 top team and 3 strongish teams

Group A: Brazil, Mexico, Croatia, Cameroon

2 top teams and 2 OK/weak teams

Group H: Belgium, Russia, Algeria, South Korea
Group C: Colombia, Cote D'Ivoire, Japan, Greece

Group E: France, Ecuador, Switzerland, Honduras,
Group F: Argentina, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Nigeria, Iran

[Igor]

I haved coped with the disappointment of the draw, but the US has a decent shot. Nate Silver's model has them with a 29% chance of advancing. We were the toughest team in pot 3.
Got a banner day of watching games today, ManU v Newcastle, and parts of Sunderland v Tottenham, Chelsea v Stoke, Southampton v Man City. MLS Cup and big ten title game to go.

[johnnya24]

I haved coped with the disappointment of the draw, but the US has a decent shot. Nate Silver's model has them with a 29% chance of advancing. We were the toughest team in pot 3.
Got a banner day of watching games today, ManU v Newcastle, and parts of Sunderland v Tottenham, Chelsea v Stoke, Southampton v Man City. MLS Cup and big ten title game to go.

If you get out of that group it'll be like winning the WC. 29% is generous. Best case scenario, you have to thrash Ghana to get your goal difference up, and then draw with either Portugal or Germany ... and the game you lose, needs to be close (1-0, 2-1).

... so best case scenario is a goal difference shootout with Germany or Portugal ... and Ghana won't be push-overs.