2K24: New York Mets

[revo]

Clearly SS is the place to start. But RF (Grandy) would be next up. Don't love the Cuddyer signing either, but a usable placeholder if he is marginally healthier than in past.

Unfortunately Grandy is owed $47m for the next three seasons, so we can be pretty sure he's sticking around.

[Don Quixote]

That would be a waste of resources and a roster spot. They really need to move Gee and/or Niese for a SS and bullpen help.

The problem with the Met offense is that besides SS, all the other hitters are good enough to start but not/no longer stars, so who do you replace? And if any of them do get replaced, they'd have to be included in the deal because they're too good to sit on the bench.

There's a lot of "almost but not quite noteworthy" on that offense. Lots of meh. No one who scares opposing pitchers or managers.

[onejayhawk]

Zack Wheeler projections are all over the board. A sampling

Rotochamp: 141 IP, 3.64 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 137 K
Steamer: 153 IP, 3.88 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, 149 K
ZIPS: 175 IP, 3.48 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 172K
CBS: 190 IP, 3.36 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 203 K

You have to like the OF defense behind him. I lean more to the CBS than the Steamer. Where do you put him?

J

[joncarlos]

I don't see any reason to knock his IP. His WHIP projections are basically the same and his K/9 projections aren't that different.

[revo]

Zack Wheeler projections are all over the board. A sampling

Rotochamp: 141 IP, 3.64 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 137 K
Steamer: 153 IP, 3.88 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, 149 K
ZIPS: 175 IP, 3.48 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 172K
CBS: 190 IP, 3.36 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 203 K

You have to like the OF defense behind him. I lean more to the CBS than the Steamer. Where do you put him?

J

He pitched 185 innings last season, so the Rotochamp and Steamer projections seem pretty silly and should be tossed. I'd probably use the ZIPS projection but with CBS' innings pitched projection.

[Kevin Seitzer]

He pitched 185 innings last season, so the Rotochamp and Steamer projections seem pretty silly and should be tossed.

Different projection systems have different ways of presenting playing time. Particularly so for pitchers where, when they do get hurt, it is often a catastrophic injury that costs most of a season. If a pitcher has 80% chance of being relatively healthy and pitching 185 innings and 20% chance of missing most of the season with an arm injury, some projection systems (e.g., Steamer) will present that as an average of 153 innings and some projection systems (e.g., Bill James) will assume good health and present that as 185 innings.

It doesn't make Steamer silly for doing it the way they do, but depending on how you use the information that may not be what you want from your projection system.

[onejayhawk]

Why such a big difference in ERA?

As noted, K/9 and WHIP are close. You have to like the park FX and defense. The projections are in Lance Lynn territory, 20-30 IP less and 50 slots later.

J

[revo]

Different projection systems have different ways of presenting playing time. Particularly so for pitchers where, when they do get hurt, it is often a catastrophic injury that costs most of a season. If a pitcher has 80% chance of being relatively healthy and pitching 185 innings and 20% chance of missing most of the season with an arm injury, some projection systems (e.g., Steamer) will present that as an average of 153 innings and some projection systems (e.g., Bill James) will assume good health and present that as 185 innings.

It doesn't make Steamer silly for doing it the way they do, but depending on how you use the information that may not be what you want from your projection system.

OK, I can appreciate a projection system that bakes in an expected loss, but:
- wouldn't you need to use Steamer for ALL your [pitching] projections and not just one single instance, since their system may seemingly devalue all pitchers? Cherrypicking one of their projections vs. a 3-year average projection, let's say, would devalue Wheeler. And,
- in looking at their pitching projections for 2015, it doesn't seem as if Steamer takes a 20% expected injury IP haircut across the board for all pitchers, and some of their IP projections seem wild. For instance, they're projecting Adam Wainwright with just 173 IP for 2015, even though he hasn't pitched that few since 2008 and has averaged 220 IP over his last five seasons. OTOH, they're projecting Marcus Stroman with 192 IP, despite having all of 295 professional innings pitched (and just 131 at the MLB level), and Tanner Roark -- who is currently the #6 starter in WAS -- with just 38 IP after throwing 199 last season.

Since fantasy pitching stats are usually all about the IP, I think it's playing with fire when the system is going to hose Wainwright (and Wheeler) and others on their innings, but elevate a Stroman, without really any reasoning we're aware of.

[Kevin Seitzer]

OK, I can appreciate a projection system that bakes in an expected loss, but:
- wouldn't you need to use Steamer for ALL your [pitching] projections and not just one single instance, since their system may seemingly devalue all pitchers? Cherrypicking one of their projections vs. a 3-year average projection, let's say, would devalue Wheeler. And,
- in looking at their pitching projections for 2015, it doesn't seem as if Steamer takes a 20% expected injury IP haircut across the board for all pitchers, and some of their IP projections seem wild. For instance, they're projecting Adam Wainwright with just 173 IP for 2015, even though he hasn't pitched that few since 2008 and has averaged 220 IP over his last five seasons. OTOH, they're projecting Marcus Stroman with 192 IP, despite having all of 295 professional innings pitched (and just 131 at the MLB level), and Tanner Roark -- who is currently the #6 starter in WAS -- with just 38 IP after throwing 199 last season.

Since fantasy pitching stats are usually all about the IP, I think it's playing with fire when the system is going to hose Wainwright (and Wheeler) and others on their innings, but elevate a Stroman, without really any reasoning we're aware of.

We all know playing time projection is THE toughest thing to do well. Automated systems are not particularly good at it.

I don't know what exactly Steamer uses for that process. I can guess. I would guess that they look at Wainwright missing all of the 2011 season and ding him for that as an injury risk. I would guess they are projecting that Roark won't be in the big leagues for some reason, but yeah, that seems low for him.

Maybe Steamer is bad at playing time projection. But projecting Wheeler at 150 innings doesn't necessarily make me think so. And I don't necessarily think that ZiPS or the other systems are any better at it. Human beings are actually pretty good at it in terms of figuring out how the roster will shake out, but are usually too optimistic about health.

[onejayhawk]

Where would you put Wheelers redraft value? ADP is south of #150.

J

[joncarlos]

Where would you put Wheelers redraft value? ADP is south of #150.

J

He was about SP36 in Mock One, 183 overall. Honestly given the pitchers around him it seemed about right (Ryu, Hughes, Lynn, Carrasco, Latos, Wheeler, McHugh, Ventura, Kazmir, Cashner, Wacha) but I think we've been taking pitchers a round or 2 late, so 150-160 is probably reasonable. I really like him but I wouldn't reach for him.

Honestly that seems like a pretty big cliff after McHugh, but then Smyly and IPK went even later, and I'd take them over some of the guys post-Wheeler.

[revo]

Well, I think this seals Murphy's [lack of a] future with the Mets. It's 2015, I just don't understand how someone can believe someone who is gay has "chosen this lifestyle," as Murphy stated. As the article implies, this seems very naive:


PORT ST. LUCIE — Aware that the issue of acceptance of gays in sports remains a work in progress — even in his own clubhouse — Mets GM Sandy Alderson invited Billy Bean, the openly gay former major leaguer, to camp on Tuesday to talk to players about having a tolerant clubhouse.

It was a productive day, with Alderson telling the heart-wrenching story of former big-leaguer Glenn Burke, who died of AIDS in 1995 while homeless. But the differing views on the subject became apparent when Daniel Murphy, a devout Christian, expressed his opinion. “I disagree with the lifestyle,” Murphy told the Daily News when asked about Bean’s visit. “But that doesn’t mean I wouldn’t love a teammate who is gay. I was glad he was here today and to hear his story.”

But Murphy wasn’t done, expanding on those comments to NJ.com.

Billy Bean visits the Mets on Tuesday as an inclusion ambassador, with the goal of making the clubhouse a more tolerant place. “I do disagree with the fact that Billy is a homosexual. That doesn’t mean I can’t still invest in him and get to know him. I don’t think the fact that someone is a homosexual should completely shut the door on investing in them in a relational aspect.

“Getting to know him. That, I would say, you can still accept them but I do disagree with the lifestyle, 100%.”

http://www.nydailynews.com/sports/baseball/mets/billy-bean-mlb-inclusion-ambassador-visits-mets-article-1.2135840

[Judge Jude]

I don't agree with his stance, but the problem this country has these days is both liberals and conservatives taking a bat even to those who are not actively hateful or angry. We need to be able to continue a dialogue with people like Murphy, left or right, who are not necessarily hateful. What good does it do to try to put the hammer down even on people who are willing to talk about an issue while not yet having the "acceptable" opinion?

There are plenty of angry rights and lefts who are beyond reach. But don't throw others into that basket if we don't need to do so.

[Moonlight J]

scratch Wheeler from the rotation -- torn UCL & TJ surgery coming

[NakedRicci]

scratch Wheeler from the rotation -- torn UCL & TJ surgery coming

ouch... but may make my $6 Gee more interesting.