2K24: New York Mets

[pitbull]

What numbers are you looking at to call him overrated. Based on the fundamentals, it seems like he's the same guy as previous years when he put up great numbers.

Maybe Dane might be referring to his current ERA and has yet to throw over 200 IP in his career. But he is showing a 52% strand and that will normalize reducing his ERA. Definitely agree that he is a good low buy to get at this point.

[Sour Masher]

What numbers are you looking at to call him overrated. Based on the fundamentals, it seems like he's the same guy as previous years when he put up great numbers.

I can see it based on the long held perception that Thor would put it all together to have a CY Young season. He hasn't yet. Injuries have derailed him, but he still carries the weight of those expectations. Before last year, he was still held in higher esteem in my league than DeGrom. A lot of people thought he'd be the ace of the Mets, and he'd be the one who put together a season like DeGrom's last year. Again, while he has tons of talent, it hasn't happened yet. His high water mark is 2016 when he pitched 183 IP. I get folks who have been waiting for him to take a big step forward looking at his results the last few years, again mostly due to injury, and thinking expectations were way out of line with his results.

[Ken]

I can see it based on the long held perception that Thor would put it all together to have a CY Young season. He hasn't yet. Injuries have derailed him, but he still carries the weight of those expectations. Before last year, he was still held in higher esteem in my league than DeGrom. A lot of people thought he'd be the ace of the Mets, and he'd be the one who put together a season like DeGrom's last year. Again, while he has tons of talent, it hasn't happened yet. His high water mark is 2016 when he pitched 183 IP. I get folks who have been waiting for him to take a big step forward looking at his results the last few years, again mostly due to injury, and thinking expectations were way out of line with his results.

I'm a little confused though. If we are saying he is "overrated" in price relative to actual value, it can't be based on innings - he's made every start. And it shouldn't be based on performance since the underlying numbers indicate he's doing fine. That was my only point. If you guys are saying he's not going to end up being worth his price, I can understand that but that wouldn't be a 2019 valuation really. Anyway, carry on.

[The Dane]

I'm a little confused though. If we are saying he is "overrated" in price relative to actual value, it can't be based on innings - he's made every start. And it shouldn't be based on performance since the underlying numbers indicate he's doing fine. That was my only point. If you guys are saying he's not going to end up being worth his price, I can understand that but that wouldn't be a 2019 valuation really. Anyway, carry on.

What I was trying to say was that:

1: Before the draft, he seemed like an Ace who could go for less than the others in his tier, so in that respect, I felt he was underrated. This was because he's underperformed initial expectations, while still having fine peripheral numbers, AND was vastly overshadowed and bypassed by a lesser-projected teammate with a Cy Young. This is the first time I've owned him. I rarely invest in young pitchers right out the gate.

2: Now, after five starts --the first five starts he's ever given me-- he has one win and a 5.90 ERA. Sure, I paid less than my fellow owners paid for an Ace, but in most cases, they actually got an Ace. I could have got better numbers from Drew Pomeranz for a lot less. In this way, I'm beginning to speculate that all the hype Thor's had may be laid on a poor foundation, that maybe he never was the Ace everyone hoped. Maybe he's just a guy.

[mjl]

Now, after five starts --the first five starts he's ever given me-- he has one win and a 5.90 ERA. Sure, I paid less than my fellow owners paid for an Ace, but in most cases, they actually got an Ace.

hey, he's better than Carrasco, Kluber, and Sale!

Also he has a 2.94 FIP (22nd in MLB), 3.37 xFIP (21st in MLB), and 50% LOB.

Of the people who have a better xFIP than him, three others have an ERA over five (Cole, Flaherty, and Carrasco). Sometimes you're just unlucky for a while.

[Ken]

2: Now, after five starts --the first five starts he's ever given me-- he has one win and a 5.90 ERA. Sure, I paid less than my fellow owners paid for an Ace, but in most cases, they actually got an Ace. I could have got better numbers from Drew Pomeranz for a lot less. In this way, I'm beginning to speculate that all the hype Thor's had may be laid on a poor foundation, that maybe he never was the Ace everyone hoped. Maybe he's just a guy.

Ah, but all hype would be if his underlying numbers didn't support the historical dominance (when he's been healthy). What you've gotten so far is, to a certain degree, variance. I wouldn't get hung up on that.

[The Dane]

Ah, but all hype would be if his underlying numbers didn't support the historical dominance (when he's been healthy). What you've gotten so far is, to a certain degree, variance. I wouldn't get hung up on that.

Again, I hope you're right. I'm invested.

[Judge Jude]

he walked TWO leadoff batters in all of 2018.

in 2019, he already has done that four times.

that's just weird.

[revo]

Again, I hope you're right. I'm invested.

....and he's getting bombed again.

[Judge Jude]

I've actually watched a decent portion of this game.

Excuse me while I go try to get Thor on the cheap - because I've actually watched a decent portion of this game and am hoping he hasn't.

#buytime

[The Dane]

I've actually watched a decent portion of this game.

Excuse me while I go try to get Thor on the cheap - because I've actually watched a decent portion of this game and am hoping he hasn't.

#buytime

Yeah, good luck with that.

Every start that goes by makes me think he's really a fancy #4. I'm not selling low, because I don't do that, so I have to ride it out, but I won't be buying again anytime soon.

[Ken]

Excuse me while I go try to get Thor on the cheap

I hope everyone went out and got him. He's not going to be cheap now. Complete game shutout 10 Ks, absolutely dominated the reds (and for grins provided the only offense with a HR).

[Hammer]

I hope everyone went out and got him. He's not going to be cheap now. Complete game shutout 10 Ks, absolutely dominated the reds (and for grins provided the only offense with a HR).

Hardly a feat. Vargas shut the Reds down too.

[revo]

Noah Syndergaard became the first pitcher since the late, great Bob Welch in 1983 to throw a 1-0 shutout and have the only run be his own HR.

[revo]

31-year old Tim Tebow hitting .137 with a 40% K rate at AAA. Any other 31-year old player at AAA with those stats would have been banished by now. So that means I guess we'll be seeing Tebow in Flushing soon!