2K24: New York Mets

[ThatRogue]

It’s fun to make fun of...but the Mets got a better financial benefit than Bonilla received. I generally lament stupid things the Mets do...but that wasn’t one of them. #TimeValueofMoney

Oh, it's always going to be fun to make fun of...can't stop, won't stop.

Yeah, now that Tebow has retired, Bobby Bonilla is all that we have left.

Even Mets fans have to make fun of the Mets, if for no other reason than laughing is better than crying.

So if Lindor and Conforto are out, the Mets could end up with a defensive arrangement of Alonso/McNeil/Villar/JD Davis, and Jose Martinez/Nimmo/Dom Smith.

That would be awesome.

Ouch! And I get the feeling there will be a few games in which this happens...and they will not be pretty.

[cavebird]

I understand risk...but there's a reason the teams are willing to offer the terms they do. Achieving more aggressive goals often means taking on some reasonably calculated risk and not simply doing what is "safe". (The Parable of the Talents: Matthew 25:14-30)

The last 35 years (1985-2020) have included the rise and collapse of the tech bubble, the 9/11 attacks, the Great Recession, and COVID-19. During that time, the S&P 500 index is up 4,853.32%, which is an annual return of 11.45%. If I run the analysis for a 35 year period ending at either of the significant stock market collapses of 1929 and 2008, the overall annual returns still exceed 8% per year. When considering a long-term (35 year) investment arrangement such as the one Bonilla entered into, overall stock market risk tends to be lower than what many people think.

So, for a relatively young man (25-35), I wouldn't invest the majority of my money at a guaranteed rate of 8% that had no chance of upside over the long-term...nor would I advise any young person to do so IF they wanted the opportunity to optimize the way they grow their financial portfolio. Would I suggest they put a portion of their money in such a vehicle...of course (although locking in a guaranteed rate for such a long-time also carries interest rate fluctuation/inflation risk...remember, CD rates in the mid-eighties were in the 9 - 11% range). But I wouldn't suggest locking it all up in an annuity to be proportioned out in relatively small amounts each year. Of course, in Bonilla's case, perhaps he had other investments and this was simply part of his diversification strategy. But, my original comments were concerning the ridicule many people (and even the foolish CNBC article) heap upon the team for making a deal with financial terms that clearly benefited them when you look at the numbers (and isn't that what we, as roto players, do?).

The current S&P is a tricky one to use, given how ridiculously stocks have gone up while the world economy has suffered during a pandemic. A major correction seems to be in the offing, but maybe the markets are just sui generis now, and have no relation to the economy. Given the low inflation during that time period, 8% with no risk is a great proposition. If I could get 8% with no risk on my TSP (similar to 401K), I'd take that in a heartbeat. I'd retire a multi-millionaire. Just not offered. Of course, locking something in at 8% does have inflation risk, but that seems relatively low right now compared to S&P risk. I get the idea of risk-taking and looking for huge returns, but 8% is pretty damn good for no risk. If it wasn't, there would be plenty of financial instruments offering that. There are none.

[ThatRogue]

The current S&P is a tricky one to use, given how ridiculously stocks have gone up while the world economy has suffered during a pandemic. A major correction seems to be in the offing, but maybe the markets are just sui generis now, and have no relation to the economy. Given the low inflation during that time period, 8% with no risk is a great proposition. If I could get 8% with no risk on my TSP (similar to 401K), I'd take that in a heartbeat. I'd retire a multi-millionaire. Just not offered. Of course, locking something in at 8% does have inflation risk, but that seems relatively low right now compared to S&P risk. I get the idea of risk-taking and looking for huge returns, but 8% is pretty damn good for no risk. If it wasn't, there would be plenty of financial instruments offering that. There are none.

I agree that the markets have become tremendously overpriced (partly because interest rates are so low for so long that investors are seeking profits wherever they can find them, partly because of the combination of monetary/fiscal policy, and partly because of the rise of the retail investor). But, is there a 35 year period in the S&P 500's history where the index did not beat an 8% average annual return?

Edited to add: A 35 year old with a $200,000 401(k) or TSP retirement fund balance that contributes $1,000/month and has an employer match of $500/month at a guaranteed 8% return would retire with $6.1 million at age 70. If they were able to achieve a historical S&P 500 return rate (9.8%), they'd retire with $10.1 million at age 70.

Compare this with a 52 year old who has a $500,000 retirement account balance, and the difference is not as pronounced by age 70 (retire with $2.7 million at 8% vs $3.5 million at 9.8%), which is why guaranteed rates of return and risk mitigation become much more attractive as we get older.

[revo]

Jose Martinez is out until the AS Break with a torn meniscus in his knee.

[ThatRogue]

Ouch! I was looking forward to him playing against tough LHPs, despite the defensive deficiencies.

[joncarlos]

Ouch! I was looking forward to him playing against tough LHPs, despite the defensive deficiencies.

They've already got Almora and Pillar - how many lefties can they bench?

[chancellor]

Ouch! I was looking forward to him playing against tough LHPs, despite the defensive deficiencies.

My dream defensive team goes by the wayside until after the AS break. <sigh>

[ThatRogue]

They've already got Almora and Pillar - how many lefties can they bench?

LOL! Well, the entire Mets starting OF (Conforto, Nimmo and Dom Smith) bats LH, as does McNeil. Martinez and Pillar have had a lot of success crushing LHP throughout their careers, and I could see them giving Nimmo and Dom some days off vs. some tough LHPs.

My dream defensive team goes by the wayside until after the AS break. <sigh>

Be careful what you wish for. It would be fun to see Martinez come back in early July, and be in the lineup against Lindblom and Lauer (as well as facing them again in September, with possible playoff berths on the line).

[Bene Futuis]

Carlos Carrasco shut down "for a few days" due to right elbow soreness. Opening Day in doubt.

[ThatRogue]

Carlos Carrasco shut down "for a few days" due to right elbow soreness. Opening Day in doubt.

We haven't even made it halfway through Spring Training. My favorite team is snakebitten...

[Bene Futuis]

Carrasco throwing again, hopes to be ready for Opening Day. The rollercoaster ride continues!

[Sharky]

Hopefully we have a new medical / training staff under Cohen.

[Bene Futuis]

Carrasco apparently got his elbow all better. Unfortunately, he strained his hammy and will likely start the year on the DL.

[ThatRogue]

Carrasco apparently got his elbow all better. Unfortunately, he strained his hammy and will likely start the year on the DL.

And Dom Smith is out with a wrist injury...

[Pauly]

My text to Mets fan friend: "I heard they are renaming the Mets training room as the Carlos Carrasco Lounge"

Reply from Mets fan friend: "Then it would be the Carlos Carrasco Lounge at the Jed Lowrie Medical Complex"