2K24: Milwaukee Brewers

[chancellor]

Where are you guys valuing Segura this year? I have seen him fro the 20s to the 90s.

I am inclined to take his second half as the floor, First half as the ceiling and full season as accurate.

Mind you, I really hope I'm wrong here, but both first half as ceiling and full season as accurate are likely overvaluing him. IMO, he's in the Andrus/Altuve class - 35-40 SBs, .650 - .700 OPS, 4-7 HR, with some upside in the SBs if he increases his walk rate. I don't think he'll carry the BA of either, likely he'll be more in the .270-.275 range.

[revo]

Rumor has Mark Reynolds signing a minor league deal with Milwaukee.

That wouldn't be such a bad landing spot for him. The Brewers have a gaping hole at 1B, an aged 3B, and IIRC a power hitter-friendly home park. For the team, it sounds like a better plan than they had at the beginning of 2013.

They also signed Lyle Overbay to a minor league deal as well. Juan Francisco is also around, but he's a strong-side platooner only.

[onejayhawk]

Mind you, I really hope I'm wrong here, but both first half as ceiling and full season as accurate are likely overvaluing him. IMO, he's in the Andrus/Altuve class - 35-40 SBs, .650 - .700 OPS, 4-7 HR, with some upside in the SBs if he increases his walk rate. I don't think he'll carry the BA of either, likely he'll be more in the .270-.275 range.

So you rate him a solid contributor rather than a star. Something like

500 AB, .281/.327/.354, 6 HR, 42 SB

Those are his July stats expanded to a full season.

Fangraphs gives
Steamer - 511 AB .281/.324/.407, 10 HR, 30 SB
Oliver - 561 AB .297/.334/.431, 12 HR, 42 SB

Other than speed, those are very like Brad Miller numbers

Steamer - 506 AB .268/.331.413, 13 HR, 11 SB
Oliver - 543 AB .273/.332/.425, 17 HR, 13 SB

It's hard to justify the difference in draft position based on that.

J

[chancellor]

Well, a 20-25 SB difference is very large in most leagues. It may not be in yours esp if it's a points league

[Don Quixote]

Has anyone heard anything new on the 2B situation? Is Weeks considered "healthy" right now? Who's the favorite to win the job?

[chancellor]

Gennett is definitely the favorite. Attansio, to his credit, supports playing the best player even if it means he eats 15 mil

[Bernie Brewer]

Sorry, been busy and someone asked for my opinion, so I thought I'd share it publicly.

I like a lot of what Chance and John's brother Jack wrote and while most of it was written in November and December a lot is relevant.

Catcher is Lucroy 4+ out of every 5, but don't discount Maldy too much. He'll rebound form a poor season last year. In 2012 he had some pop, spelling Hart occasionally at 1B. He claims that playing (insert sitting and watching the WBC from the bench) last Spring really had a negative impact. He said he basically missed spring training altogether and for a backup or bench guy, getting lots of spring training at bats is kind of important! or so says Roenicki.

I suspect that 1B will be some sort of platoon with Reynolds and Overbay or Francisco, but I think the Brewers are still hoping that Hunter Morris is the longer term answer despite a rough early season in Nashville last year. I suspect Overbay will be the odd man out, he is would be a fan favorite to make it. Francisco offers a semi-viable back up to ARam at 3B, as does Reynolds.

I think 2B is Scooters to lose. I'm not sold on him, but you gotta love his tenacity. Weeks has to have a smoking spring or Scooter starts very slowly to "earn" the position back. Weeks is apparently a healthy report after a lost season, so maybe he comes back strong. I love Rickie Weeks, always have, but I think he'll be gone by mid-season.

SS is set for the next several seasons with Segura. I think Bianchi backs up 2B and SS.

3B is ARam's, but his age is showing. I think the Brewers hope for 125 games from him and something close to 2012 production. Reynolds and Francisco will be a back up platoon when the other is at 1B. For reasons that are not apparent to many Brewers fans, management seems enamored with the potential of Francisco. Both Reynolds or Francisco will hit the long NA ll which will be great but they'll both K enough to make the fans long for the return of Jose Hernandez, the Human K.

More tomorrow.

[Don Quixote]

There are 1B/3Bs out there who can make strong men ill when they play third base. Reynolds and Francisco are that type. While a platoon of these two is an upgrade from the dreck the Brewers had at 1B last season, you really, really, really don't want them attempting to play third.

[chancellor]

There are 1B/3Bs out there who can make strong men ill when they play third base. Reynolds and Francisco are that type. While a platoon of these two is an upgrade from the dreck the Brewers had at 1B last season, you really, really, really don't want them attempting to play third.

Can't fully agree with this - yeah, Reynolds doesn't have any range anymore, but he at least makes the plays that are at him or a step away. Francisco is brutal. Ryan Braun at 3B brutal. I wouldn't want Reynolds as the regular, but he'd not be a bad fill-in if ARam has to miss 15 days with a minor injury. Francisco...no. Just no.

[Don Quixote]

Can't fully agree with this - yeah, Reynolds doesn't have any range anymore, but he at least makes the plays that are at him or a step away. Francisco is brutal. Ryan Braun at 3B brutal. I wouldn't want Reynolds as the regular, but he'd not be a bad fill-in if ARam has to miss 15 days with a minor injury. Francisco...no. Just no.

I was going to compare one or both of them to Braun's adventures at third, but I didn't want to revive old nightmares for Bernie and other Brewers fans out there. Until Braun came along, I hadn't seen a regular third baseman quite that brutal in 40 years, since I got to see Steve Garvey and Tony Perez play there. I can still hear my father's voice--

"Hey, Dad! Barry's father can get us some tickets in the box seats right behind first base!"
"Ask him if he can get something higher up. That's dangerous territory."

[Sharky]

I was going to compare one or both of them to Braun's adventures at third, but I didn't want to revive old nightmares for Bernie and other Brewers fans out there. Until Braun came along, I hadn't seen a regular third baseman quite that brutal in 40 years, since I got to see Steve Garvey and Tony Perez play there. I can still hear my father's voice--

"Hey, Dad! Barry's father can get us some tickets in the box seats right behind first base!"
"Ask him if he can get something higher up. That's dangerous territory."

Good line by your dad!

[Pauly]

Any Brew Crew fans have an update on the 1B situation? I got outbid on everyone I wanted in my NL and was forced to settle with Reynolds. How has the 1B battle shpaed up this ST, and will Reynolds see any time at 3B (with or without the inevitable Aramis injury)?

Thanks for your insights!

[Davros]

Any Brew Crew fans have an update on the 1B situation? I got outbid on everyone I wanted in my NL and was forced to settle with Reynolds. How has the 1B battle shpaed up this ST, and will Reynolds see any time at 3B (with or without the inevitable Aramis injury)?

From what little I have seen, there is no clear idea on what Roenicke is thinking about doing at 1B. From an MLB.com article posted yesterday:

How Roenicke and general manager Doug Melvin will make the final decisions on first base is anyone's guess. But with two weeks left, Overbay and fellow non-roster invitee Reynolds could be considered the favorites. Or not.

"It's not going to be an easy decision; Francisco is in the mix, too," Roenicke said. "It is going to be tough."

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article/mlb/...&vkey=news_mlb

A St. Louis writer is suggesting an Overbay/Reynolds platoon.

http://www.stltoday.com/sports/taking-a-look-around-the-nl-central/article_fbd9567c-bd7d-5832-80aa-793063d17d7d.html

As for Aramis' caddy at 3B, I think Rotoworld is correct in listing Bianchi at #2 on the depth chart. Still, when ARam gets injured as usual, I can see lots of mixing and matching between Bianchi, Reynolds, and Francisco during his recovery.

[jackmadden]

At 1B, it's a 3 man race now. Most fans are expecting a Reynolds/Francisco platoon. Overbay is still an option but he has struggled this spring and could opt out this weekend if he isn't added to the 40 man. Halton and Morris have already been sent back to the minors.

And Davros is correct about 3B.

[Simon]

At 1B, it's a 3 man race now. Most fans are expecting a Reynolds/Francisco platoon. Overbay is still an option but he has struggled this spring and could opt out this weekend if he isn't added to the 40 man. Halton and Morris have already been sent back to the minors.

And Davros is correct about 3B.

How bad is Morris if he can't get any playing time ahead of these guys? Any hope he can make better contact or have we seen the best of him?