2K24: Los Angeles Dodgers

[Ken]

Because memories of what a player was as a prospect in the past and dreams of what he might be in the future cloud the present in the minds of all dreamers. Urias was once considered a generational talent and is pitching great in ST. I am out on his helium given that team make up, but I get why other fellas are chasing.

1 strikeout in 4 IP in ST is "great"? Even the spring reports are hyperbole

[Sour Masher]

1 strikeout in 4 IP in ST is "great"? Even the spring reports are hyperbole

To paraphrase Napolean said, never interrupt your enemy when he is making a mistake. I love when helium guys in ST shoot up in price, as long as they are not my targets .

I do think Urias is gonna have a fine career, though.

[Bene Futuis]

Don't discount Urias' playoff numbers, either. They're 1/5 of his total production! Once again, though, he's a real stats stud and SIERA/xFIP middle-of-the-roader.

Essentially, one out of every five major league games Urías has ever pitched in have been playoff games, which is bananas. The rest of these guys are closers who were throwing 60 or 70 games for their teams in the regular season, then were naturally leaned on just as hard when their squads made the playoffs. But Urías is not a closer. He’s a starter, except for when he was a reliever in 2019, or when he hardly pitched at all in 2017-18. Regardless of his role though, the Dodgers usually find a way to position him prominently in their postseason pitching plans.

Let’s think about this another way. The Dodgers have played 660 regular season games since Urías debuted for them on May 27, 2016. Urías has pitched in 11.2% of them. In that same span, the Dodgers have played in 64 postseason games — Urías has appeared in 28.1% of those. The title of this article isn’t meant to be some clichéd claim about how clutch he is when the season’s on the line or anything like that. It’s meant to be taken literally; If you’ve wanted to watch Urías pitch over the last five years, your best bet is turn on a playoff game.

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/julio-urias-shows-up-in-the-playoffs/

What sort of ADP would be reasonable for Urias? Other guys around him at #117 are Stanton, Wilson Contreras, Brad Hand. Starting pitchers around there are Dylan Bundy, Charlie Morton, Lance McCullers, Joe Musgrove.

[Big Tymer]

Urias: Prospect progression is not linear. If you're "out" on him based on past metrics, that's fine. Probably conservative. But as with any young pitcher, future performance cannot solely be determined by past metrics. Giolito was the worst starter in baseball before his breakout. Urias has helium because (a) industry views him highly and always has, (b) he was dominant in postseason, (c) team "right now" appears committed to him in starting rotation and (d) that team is really good.

Arguments can be made on both sides of the aisle on this one. I'm clearly Pro-Urias but its still more projection and than performance right now.

[Gregg]

Urias: Prospect progression is not linear. If you're "out" on him based on past metrics, that's fine. Probably conservative. But as with any young pitcher, future performance cannot solely be determined by past metrics. Giolito was the worst starter in baseball before his breakout. Urias has helium because (a) industry views him highly and always has, (b) he was dominant in postseason, (c) team "right now" appears committed to him in starting rotation and (d) that team is really good.

Arguments can be made on both sides of the aisle on this one. I'm clearly Pro-Urias but its still more projection and than performance right now.

And don't we all want the next Giolito?

[overkill94]

All you have to do is watch the guy pitch and you can see why there's helium. He's got a varied repertoire, live fastball, and generally good command - the type where I would be surprised if he ended up with an ERA over 3.50 in a full year. Kinda reminds me of Ryu in that you expect him to produce when he's healthy but that can be hard to count on year over year. With so many quality options it would be hard to expect 150+ innings from everyone except Bauer, Buehler, and Kershaw while Urias and Price are the most likely to finish 4th and 5th in IP, theoretically in the 130-150 IP range. Of course injuries could open up a spot for May, Gonsolin, or Nelson in which case Urias or Price might be pressed into 150-170 IP.

Bottom line, investing in Dodgers starting pitching will be unlikely to hurt your ratios, just temper expectations when it comes to IP.

[ThatRogue]

And don't we all want the next Giolito?

I had the current Giolito before the Nationals traded him for an OF who missed a lot of games due to injury and is now back with the White Sox.

[Bene Futuis]

Price pitching in relief today on 3 days' rest. Well I'll be gobsmacked, maybe he really will be a reliever!

[Bene Futuis]

Will Smith will only start about 90 games at catcher this year. Without the DH it's extremely unlikely that he gets anything near a full season of ABs.

[Sour Masher]

Will Smith will only start about 90 games at catcher this year. Without the DH it's extremely unlikely that he gets anything near a full season of ABs.

It would be a crime against fantasy, and more specifically, my fantasy team, if the best hitting catcher in baseball only started 90 games. Free Will Smith! Pitch framing is not a fantasy cat! Bring on the robot umps!

[cavebird]

It would be a crime against fantasy, and more specifically, my fantasy team, if the best hitting catcher in baseball only started 90 games. Free Will Smith! Pitch framing is not a fantasy cat! Bring on the robot umps!

We have no idea how things will go. That may be the plan, but those kinds of plans go haywire very quickly. If Smith is crushing it and Barnes isn't, he'll get more starts. If Barnes gets hurt, he'll get more starts. If he gets hurt, he'll get less.

[Erik]

Scenarios like this reinforce my stance that I'm spending very little at C this year (1 C league).

[Bene Futuis]

Scenarios like this reinforce my stance that I'm spending very little at C this year (1 C league).

It makes sense to give your catcher an awful lot of rest during the season but it's hell on fantasy owners. Will Smith won't be a full time player, like most catchers, but his split may really frustrate some folks a lot. Austin Barnes is a very capable catcher in his own right and Manager Dave Roberts has refused to even call Barnes the backup, calling them 1 and 1a. Smith is perhaps the best hitting catcher in baseball but Barnes is perhaps the best framing catcher.

Smith does have some experience at third base and the Dodgers can probably find him some innings there. But he's not going to be a full time catcher or even close to it this year, it seems.

[Gregg]

It makes sense to give your catcher an awful lot of rest during the season but it's hell on fantasy owners. Will Smith won't be a full time player, like most catchers, but his split may really frustrate some folks a lot. Austin Barnes is a very capable catcher in his own right and Manager Dave Roberts has refused to even call Barnes the backup, calling them 1 and 1a. Smith is perhaps the best hitting catcher in baseball but Barnes is perhaps the best framing catcher.

Smith does have some experience at third base and the Dodgers can probably find him some innings there. But he's not going to be a full time catcher or even close to it this year, it seems.

Maybe in 2 catcher leagues it would be wise to roster both?

[Bene Futuis]

Maybe in 2 catcher leagues it would be wise to roster both?

Barnes is playable in a 2 catcher NL only. Mixed probably not so much.