2K24: Boston Red Sox

[The Feral Slasher]

I prefer to play and then come here and whine about my crappy decisions

maybe we have that in common

[Sharky]

Lol





...

[Ken]

Another 0-3 tonight so far. Keep on chugging JD. Ken just won't admit for fantasy 5x5 JD has been disappointing. Admit it. It won't kill you dude! Hahaha

.... don’t feed the troll... don’t feed the troll...

Yeah, you are exactly right Mith. Carry on!

[Mithrandir]

Ken still doesn't understand the difference between metrics and actual 5x5 stats that determine league standings. The FACT is that JD is the 73rd ranked player in 5x5 leagues. Don't you understand FACTS?

[Ken]

Ken still doesn't understand the difference between metrics and actual 5x5 stats that determine league standings. The FACT is that JD is the 73rd ranked player in 5x5 leagues. Don't you understand FACTS?

Can you state your point in a clear and concise way, with details and support, without all the drivel? Or are you just going to continue to troll and spew this garbage?

No one even knows what you are trying to say here. Is your point that JD Martinez "sucks", or he is "mediocre"? Because that's all I've seen you post. And it's incredibly stupid.

You were whining about his .288 average earlier, and now you've gone silent since he's hitting .304/.376/.541 (which is perfectly in line with what you should expect).

Do you have anything remotely interesting or intelligent to say or are you just here to troll some more? Be honest.

[cleo]

So Mith's logic is tellling me that my retirement fund that is up 12.3% for the q1 - q2 of this year is guaranteed to do the same in q3 and q4? I didn't know it was that easy.

[DMT]

Can you state your point in a clear and concise way, with details and support, without all the drivel? Or are you just going to continue to troll and spew this garbage?

No one even knows what you are trying to say here. Is your point that JD Martinez "sucks", or he is "mediocre"? Because that's all I've seen you post. And it's incredibly stupid.

You were whining about his .288 average earlier, and now you've gone silent since he's hitting .304/.376/.541 (which is perfectly in line with what you should expect).

Do you have anything remotely interesting or intelligent to say or are you just here to troll some more? Be honest.

[Ken]

Mith's logic

"I just flipped a coin twice and it came up tails both times. Stat geeks told me I should get heads half the time, so I bet my house on the second flip since it was guaranteed to come up heads. Now I'm homeless. Stupid stat geeks, coin flips are much more luck based than they want you to believe. In fact, I'm not sure if any coins even have a heads side. Coins suck!!"

[Ken]

Sorry, I get pulled offsides by trolls far to easily.

But to put us back on track, lets look at some actual data and use our brains. Lets talk about why players are drafted high. And lets talk about expectations.

A cave man drooling in the corner can just look at the numbers a guy has put up. Sadly it's like the coin flip example. It doesn't take much brain power to see that I just flipped tails, but what I should expect for my next flip? That's interesting (well actually it's not that's interesting in the coin example but at least much more interesting than 'wow I flipped tails', which is what this garbage thread has been about sadly)

So what should we expect from JD Martinez? Well, he was drafted high because of the very high ceiling (think 45 HR / 130 RBI / .330). But ALSO because of his high floor. Likely still in his prime years at 31 (although getting towards the end of that range), not the *picture* of health but ~120 games still gets you good numbers. In the first couple rounds you could have picked guys like Jose Ramirez, Giancarlo Stanton, Blake Snell, Aaron Judge, but one of the selling points on JDM is his high floor. If you look at his monthly splits over the last few years he is remarkably consistent - there are very few down months. There is less risk with JDM than some of those guys. Even when he hasn't had a full season of ABs he has put up numbers because he plugs away and compiles the stats.

And what is he doing this year? Well his K rate is down to 19%, his walk rate matches his career norms, his hard hit rate is higher than it has been the last two years, and Soft% the lowest. His LD% is the highest of his career since his rookie year. His exit velocity is 4mph higher than league average (and higher than his 2017 season where he put up monster numbers), his launch angle is higher than last year, and his barrell% is double league average. In summary, he's knocking the cover off the ball.

So what's the problem? Well first off, nothing. A hitter hitting .304/.376/.541 is an all star level performer... every year. He has missed 11 games so far, but if you were paying attention at all, that should not be a surprise (although maybe I should not use that caveat considering some portions of the audience).

His BABIP is down 40 points from last year. So that explains the 26 point average drop. Although you should never expect a .330 average (maybe it's asking too much not to expect that based on the "logic" being used). If you are looking at outlier statistics and using them as your basis for what to expect going forward, you honestly shouldn't be playing a game based on stats.

His RBI are down from .87 per game to .62 respectively. I think we've found the real issue here, since there is complaining about his fantasy numbers and this is the biggest drop. But why? Well, looking at the numbers, last year he hit .386 with runners in scoring position, which occurred in 28% of his ABs, and this year he's hitting .304 with runners on, but that's only 25% of his ABs. Basically he's not getting quite as many opportunities, and he's hitting at a reasonable level now (130 RBI should not be something you would expect to repeat in the first place, but... again with my caveats).

So what should we expect going forward? Well I don't see any dropoff here. He looks pretty damn good, and if you have him on your team and you are struggling, it's likely not his fault.
...





....
Who am I kidding? JD Martinez sucks!!!!!

[BuckyBuckner]

Ken still doesn't understand the difference between metrics and actual 5x5 stats that determine league standings. The FACT is that JD is the 73rd ranked player in 5x5 leagues. Don't you understand FACTS?

Would you trade JDM for any of these players one for one in a redraft 5x5 league?

Juan Soto
Max Muncy
Dansby Swanson
Eddie Roasrio
Gleyber Torres
Anthony Rizzo
Kris Bryant
Mike Moustakas
Yoan Moncada
Jose Abreu
Ozzie Albies
Starling Marte
Fernando Tatis

[madducks]

The Red Sox acquired RHP Andrew Cashner from the Orioles for OF Elio Prado and INF Noelberth Romero.

[Roy Hobbs]

The Red Sox acquired RHP Andrew Cashner from the Orioles for OF Elio Prado and INF Noelberth Romero.

I'm not so sure he will be a fantasy asset. Perthaps more "Ws", but that's about it IMO.

[Moonlight J]

I'm not so sure he will be a fantasy asset. Perthaps more "Ws", but that's about it IMO.

Cashner already had the 6th best run support in the league, so the change of team won't help too much

[Mithrandir]

0-4 tonight. Average down to .291. Really helping his fantasy teams. But hey dont worry he'll pick it up sometime long after his fantasy teams are out of it.

[Mithrandir]

Would you trade JDM for any of these players one for one in a redraft 5x5 league?

Juan Soto **
Max Muncy **
Dansby Swanson
Eddie Roasrio
Gleyber Torres **
Anthony Rizzo **
Kris Bryant
Mike Moustakas
Yoan Moncada
Jose Abreu
Ozzie Albies
Starling Marte
Fernando Tatis **

I would for those with ** JD is just not the same this year. Juiced ball and he is JAG. 5x5 stats prove that so far. 42nd in HR.