2K24: Boston Red Sox

[DMT]

Present valuation = (pre-elbow valuation - (Number of visits to Dr. Andrews)*2 - (Number of consults by Dr. ElAttrache)*3)/(number of visits to Mets doctors)*100

Haha.

[Ken]

But why is pre-elbow valuation relevant?

I think it's very relevant. If Chris Sale has an increased injury risk, like this, the resulting price is a lot different than say if we were discussing Marco Gonzales.

Chancellor's formula is funny, but there's actually some truth to it. To talk about the price, we should start with the price assuming no health concerns and then discount against that.

[DMT]

I think it's very relevant. If Chris Sale has an increased injury risk, like this, the resulting price is a lot different than say if we were discussing Marco Gonzales.

Chancellor's formula is funny, but there's actually some truth to it. To talk about the price, we should start with the price assuming no health concerns and then discount against that.

Sure, I'm not saying ignore it, but here's the comment I responded to.

If he is one of the first players thrown and if the draft was this weekend, I would guess he goes for 15 when his AAV is around 25.

25 is no longer relevant as an expected price, so it shouldn't be used in making the argument that because he'll go for under 25, it's not a strategic move to toss him early.

[chancellor]

Haha.

Seriously, you can calculate value from Ken's method - some sort of a deduct from his pre-injury value, or assume a greater risk of him pitching less innings and do a calculation based on some lower risk-weighted inning figure. Say I was assuming based on Sale's risk profile before that his risk-weighted innings was 150 IP at 13K/9, 3.00 ERA and 1.00 WHIP; now I'd bump that number to 120 IP at 13K/9 IP, 3.00 ERA and 1.0 WHIP. The other potential factor in either case would be if you believe his innings will be less effective innings.

[DMT]

Seriously, you can calculate value from Ken's method - some sort of a deduct from his pre-injury value, or assume a greater risk of him pitching less innings and do a calculation based on some lower risk-weighted inning figure. Say I was assuming based on Sale's risk profile before that his risk-weighted innings was 150 IP at 13K/9, 3.00 ERA and 1.00 WHIP; now I'd bump that number to 120 IP at 13K/9 IP, 3.00 ERA and 1.0 WHIP. The other potential factor in either case would be if you believe his innings will be less effective innings.

I'd rather just toss him early and let others make those calculations.

[chancellor]

I'd rather just toss him early and let others make those calculations.

That's absolutely a valid strategy. I'm planning to do the same, but I'm willing to buy him if the price is low enough. I haven't figured out what that number will be yet, but I suspect it'll be single digits in my AL-only. My mixed leagues are drafts, so I'd take a shot on him around 10 - 11th round since replacement value for SPs is typically pretty high in those leagues.

[Pauly]

Sure, I'm not saying ignore it, but here's the comment I responded to.

25 is no longer relevant as an expected price, so it shouldn't be used in making the argument that because he'll go for under 25, it's not a strategic move to toss him early.

That comment was a response to someone else's comment about how I arrived at his current value. It's immaterial to our debate anyway. Now that we know (at least as of an hour ago - and this is info I didnt have before) that his elbow is the same as always and he will likely miss at least April, it makes me think someone is going to steal him for as low as 5 bucks (as JC had him valued) if thrown right away at the auction, because nobody is going to want to commit any real $$ to him. So you wait to throw him in the hopes that as the good pitchers dwindle and people get more comfortable with their budgets, that Sale goes for more than that $5.

But again, if you want to get a DND player off the board, throw him right away! I say throw him right away because you want to steal him for 5 bucks!!!

[DMT]

Sure, I'd take him at 5, but I think you were closer to the mark with your $15 estimate.

[chancellor]

On a different topic, if the Red Sox think Collin McHugh is the answer, they are not even close to asking the right question.

[cavebird]

My thought on Sale is that I would only take him at keeper price for the future. I assume that his attempts to avoid the knife will eventually fail and the longer he waits, the worse it is. And, hell, since he'll probably be valueless next year, too, I think he's DND.

[joncarlos]

He went for $13 in PONY yesterday (15 team mixed). That's an awfully steep price to keep him at in 2021 if he doesn't pitch in 2020.

[Sour Masher]

He went for $13 in PONY yesterday (15 team mixed). That's an awfully steep price to keep him at in 2021 if he doesn't pitch in 2020.

Right, but it just takes two owners to think, that is a cheap price if he comes back and pitches 150 innings.

[mgwiz22]

Did Mlb conclude their investigation into the Red Sox?

[cleo]

What are the Red Sox doing with picking Nick Yorke in the 1st round? I think he was ranked around 150 on most mock draft boards.

[chancellor]

What are the Red Sox doing with picking Nick Yorke in the 1st round? I think he was ranked around 150 on most mock draft boards.

Very highly regarded hitter by some in the college recruiting area. Arizona, Vandy, and Ole Miss were all over him; I think he committed to Arizona but might be wrong. Despite the ranking, I suspect the Red Sox really liked him and figured he'd be gone by the time they came up in the third round. Just spitballing here, but a MI who can really hit and has power upside...and Bogaerts has an out clause in 2022...