*** VD 5 Commentary Thread ***

[Controller Jacobs]

...I should take some time off and do taxes...but when are we starting VD6 ?

I did mine early, then lost a month because I had a small education deduction for a class my wife took (caused by the "Fiscal Cliff" crap). If I had known, I wouldn't have taken the deduction, which saved me a grand total of $45.

[hacko]

I did mine early, then lost a month because I had a small education deduction for a class my wife took (caused by the "Fiscal Cliff" crap). If I had known, I wouldn't have taken the deduction, which saved me a grand total of $45.

I did mine early this year for the first time in about 8 years. - I always had to pay since my wife never had enough taken out of her paycheck. Now that she is my Ex and I had to shell out Alimony I got money back - Woot Woot!!!!!!

[johnnya24]

Congrats to Slasher, TS Garp and Controller ... I had done projections, so I was quietly watching a great battle for second place unfold. Couldn't call it until the last round. I was pretty confident I had this tied up by about half way ... once I got Bill Terry I was relaxed ... didn't see anyone getting past me at that point. Slasher got closer than I thought he would because some nice value picks fell to him at the end despite flexibility issues.

Review:

Before we started, I thought a lot more about this draft than the last one. It was pretty clear to me that if you left yourself with any combination of poor letters, positions, or decades at the end, you'd have to get very lucky to compete. One team in particular interested me ... ElDiablo's. Just eyeballing the teams about halfway through I had Controller, Eldiablo as teams I thought were on the right path ... and I had half a mind on Slasher's team, just in case he lucked out on the letter-decade availability late on (which he kind off did ... he was very lucky to find Eric Young, Eichhorn and Quantrill still available). I deliberately picked Craig Biggio because he was available, needed and a great fit for all three of those teams. I really thought ElD was flying at the time, and then when I came to do projections later on, his team was really hamstrung. His flex/value picking had been great, but leaving 2x QUIZY and 2x catcher slots to the end was death. The position and letter combo at the end killed his chances.

In hindsight ElD had the absolute right idea and strategy, the only difference being that he picked one too many MI's and no catcher in the first half. If he had picked 2xMI's and 1xC, he'd have had much more net value from all the rest of his picks. I'm glad I picked Biggio when I did, because I had planned to try and wait it out and see where the undrafted value catchers would fall (Dickey and Hartnett in the 30's as it happens) ... I realized just in time that this was way to risky.

I also noticed that a lot of people got the balance wrong (or they got unlucky) ... they did the right thing by leaving flexible decades, then hamstrung themselves with position or letters, and then ended up wasting a top decade. Revo left himself 2xCI with his final 2 hitters, and even with 9 picks to go, this really buggered him. The CI pool for the 1900-1910's sucked, and the strength in the 1930's is in C and OF, so he ended up wasting a 1930's pick on Lindstrom. Despite having CSWGKT and no QUIZY's left, he ended up with little hitting flexibility because of the CI / decade combo. Even one OF/1B eligible OF'er would have made a huge difference.

In short ... position was the most important of the three factors ... in order: position, letters, decades.

If Revo didn't leave himself something as seemingly innocuous as 2xCI (and of course picked Schilling 2002 ), it would have been worth 30+ points IMO. He'd have got full value from his 1930's hitter and been able to pick Benny Kauff in the 1910's (a perfect fit his team).

So in reply to Revo's post from early ... I was right about position!

[The Feral Slasher]

Congrats to Slasher, TS Garp and Controller ... I had done projections, so I was quietly watching a great battle for second place unfold. Couldn't call it until the last round. I was pretty confident I had this tied up by about half way ... once I got Bill Terry I was relaxed ... didn't see anyone getting past me at that point. Slasher got closer than I thought he would because some nice value picks fell to him at the end despite flexibility issues.

Review:

Before we started, I thought a lot more about this draft than the last one. It was pretty clear to me that if you left yourself with any combination of poor letters, positions, or decades at the end, you'd have to get very lucky to compete. One team in particular interested me ... ElDiablo's. Just eyeballing the teams about halfway through I had Controller, Eldiablo as teams I thought were on the right path ... and I had half a mind on Slasher's team, just in case he lucked out on the letter-decade availability late on (which he kind off did ... he was very lucky to find Eric Young, Eichhorn and Quantrill still available). I deliberately picked Craig Biggio because he was available, needed and a great fit for all three of those teams. I really thought ElD was flying at the time, and then when I came to do projections later on, his team was really hamstrung. His flex/value picking had been great, but leaving 2x QUIZY and 2x catcher slots to the end was death. The position and letter combo at the end killed his chances.

In hindsight ElD had the absolute right idea and strategy, the only difference being that he picked one too many MI's and no catcher in the first half. If he had picked 2xMI's and 1xC, he'd have had much more net value from all the rest of his picks. I'm glad I picked Biggio when I did, because I had planned to try and wait it out and see where the undrafted value catchers would fall (Dickey and Hartnett in the 30's as it happens) ... I realized just in time that this was way to risky.

I also noticed that a lot of people got the balance wrong (or they got unlucky) ... they did the right thing by leaving flexible decades, then hamstrung themselves with position or letters, and then ended up wasting a top decade. Revo left himself 2xCI with his final 2 hitters, and even with 9 picks to go, this really buggered him. The CI pool for the 1900-1910's sucked, and the strength in the 1930's is in C and OF, so he ended up wasting a 1930's pick on Lindstrom. Despite having CSWGKT and no QUIZY's left, he ended up with little hitting flexibility because of the CI / decade combo. Even one OF/1B eligible OF'er would have made a huge difference.

In short ... position was the most important of the three factors ... in order: position, letters, decades.

If Revo didn't leave himself something as seemingly innocuous as 2xCI (and of course picked Schilling 2002 ), it would have been worth 30+ points IMO. He'd have got full value from his 1930's hitter and been able to pick Benny Kauff in the 1910's (a perfect fit his team).

So in reply to Revo's post from early ... I was right about position!

I never do projections so I wasn't really sure how it would end, with his massive career stats I thought Controller was in really good position. I went back to my VD2-VD3 drafting style and it bit me again. I did get pretty lucky in the second half of the draft, with almost none of my targets getting picked. Garp has been right on my tail for two drafts now. Anyway, looking forward to VD6, is next week too early to start ?

[johnnya24]

Right around the halfway point, I knew I'd made a couple crucial mistakes. I also knew that when you lucked into Hecker and Clemens that you could very well have the thing sewn up.

For quite some time, I had my pick of either Bench or Biggio and stupidly thought that one or the other would just be around. Before I knew it, there were no palatable catcher choices and I was stuck needing a 3B. Funny thing is that Tony Perez would have been a perfect fit for me, too, but since I needed the damn catchers I thought I had to save my P for one that wasn't blindingly awful. Bad situation to be in, for sure.

Still, I might have been able to make a run for the money despite all that stuff if I'd taken Bobby Veach at some point. I also ended up really regretting my early Michael Young pick (and Johnny's right on about grabbing too many MIs early) because I could have nabbed Napoli or another catcher with my 2010s decade. I could have grabbed a decent QUIZY to fill out my 3B as well (Ryan Zimmerman would have solved my 3B problem nicely and I could have grabbed Manny Ramirez as well).

Oh well. I didn't plan at all. I didn't project ever. I had no idea what I was doing at all the entire draft and did zero prep and absolutely zero forethought. It's no surprise that I ended up getting caught in the morass at some point.

Funny thing was that I really didn't want Hecker ... I made him work, but I knew that H would give me better flexibility at the end than some of the BCMSW's I had. TS Garp had Helton and Hendrix. Clemens wasn't the best fit either ... I was supposed to cash in my WHIP for ERA, but kept picking WHIP pitchers. But I did need his K's badly.

I thought when you got Ibanez that you must have been a real contender. That seemed like great value at the time. You went on a great value run at the time ... I was sure you were my major threat ... Mantle-Niekro-Ibanez-Cicotte-Averill-Thome-Reulbach ... I agree that Heilmann was a mistake. I reckon if you picked another crap letter during that run, and a catcher, you would have been well set. Small margins.

Ennis in the 8th was a crucial pick for me. It's just as well I looked up my E options, because they amounted to Ennis or Elliot at that point ... or another QUIZY type player. That convinced me to do projections, but not so much to see where everyone was finishing, but to see where the competition for my letters / decades lay. My projections were way off until the last couple of rounds ... but they helped me traverse the last 10 rounds ... when and where to pick players. It also saved me time ... my last bunch of picks were automatic.

[johnnya24]

I never do projections so I wasn't really sure how it would end, with his massive career stats I thought Controller was in really good position. I went back to my VD2-VD3 drafting style and it bit me again. I did get pretty lucky in the second half of the draft, with almost none of my targets getting picked. Garp has been right on my tail for two drafts now. Anyway, looking forward to VD6, is next week too early to start ?

I was happy when you kept picking pitchers ... I really was hoping you'd over shoot the mark with the pitching numbers. You didn't though ... it was a good plan.

[Controller Jacobs]

It appears a way-overvalued career hitting stats, but it's safe to say other people under-valued it. It's almost like I was price-enforcing. I got my spreadsheet together around the sixth pick, one of my usual problems (along with consistently under-valuing wins and saves). Going into the next draft with very similar rules, I expect I'll provide a more legit challenge.

[The Feral Slasher]

I was happy when you kept picking pitchers ... I really was hoping you'd over shoot the mark with the pitching numbers. You didn't though ... it was a good plan.

Actually I think I overdid it on the Career pitching. I was sort of handcuffed because I still had to try to compete in yearly pitching even though I had spent so many early picks on pitchers.

[Pogues]

It appears a way-overvalued career hitting stats, but it's safe to say other people under-valued it. It's almost like I was price-enforcing. I got my spreadsheet together around the sixth pick, one of my usual problems (along with consistently under-valuing wins and saves). Going into the next draft with very similar rules, I expect I'll provide a more legit challenge.

Perhaps you and I should get together on pitcher projections. I keep eating it when it comes to WHIP and ERA.

My plan was a pretty basic one, dumping career saves. Isringhausen was a good pick for me..except the overabundance of career saves. Olin and Axford were perfect. But maybe I should have just dumped saves completely.

I had figured out pretty early on, I think as early as the Keefe pick in Round 9, that Johnny was crushing this draft. I had the 3rd best flexibility at that point, with Johnny and Heye in front of me. Heye and I were languishing back in 8th to 10th, Johnny was in the top 3. I thought I'd finish higher than I did, but 3rd place seemed to be as high as I'd finish. I wish I could figure out where I went wrong...I think it was my player values more than anything....which I finished after my 2nd round pick of Radbourn. It was about then that I realized Radbourn wasn't the greatest pick at that point.

Congratulations to everyone for just surviving and not having to take a penalty!

[Controller Jacobs]

Don't know if this was already stated, but it looks like Johnny was the only one to stay out of last place in any category (his lowest point score for any category was 3). I screwed myself on that by using all my modern pitching decades early, so I couldn't take any reliever with significant saves, even with with atrocious ratios.

[johnnya24]

Don't know if this was already stated, but it looks like Johnny was the only one to stay out of last place in any category (his lowest point score for any category was 3). I screwed myself on that by using all my modern pitching decades early, so I couldn't take any reliever with significant saves, even with with atrocious ratios.

I actually didn't have any targets ... I rarely do. I was just aiming for balance right across the board, and I hit it pretty close. I always let my power numbers fall short, so I was trying to be conscious of this ... gad I was able to keep Perez in the reserve tank. I really wanted Gossage, as that gave me the most balanced lineup I could have imagined (Marichal, Gossage and Wettland ... instead of Wilhelm, Guidry and Myers).

2's are OK ... you just have to avoid those 1's!