Fancy a Trip to Mars

[bryanbutler]

NASA has been encouraging the shift towards private enterprise in space exploration. Projects like Mars One etc etc will as most people expect probably go nowhere. But eventually it will be private companies leading the way. A look at history shows how much people will risk for fortune and fame. Only a matter of time before some multibillionaire decides to use his fortune for something like this.

even a multibillionaire can't afford it... this isn't Prometheus, after all ...

[Fresno Bob]

even a multibillionaire can't afford it... this isn't Prometheus, after all ...

Actually, the SpaceX guys think they can get a functioning space station going for under a billion. Once you can get manufacturing out of the gravity well, the solar system is yours

[johnnya24]

even a multibillionaire can't afford it... this isn't Prometheus, after all ...

I think you're overestimating the costs, and underestimating how much a project like this could generate in revenue. This is the kind of project that could really snowball once it starts rolling. It really just takes one serious big name investor and a ton of money will flow in.

How much would a company like Google or Apple, with massive amounts of cash lying around, pay to have the ship or the settlement named after it (look at the silly sums companies pay for stadium naming rights ... and this is global)?

How much would a wannabe country like India pay to get one of their citizens on board?

With guaranteed money and big names, how much will big funds be willing to gamble?

Aside from the mega $$ from franchising the reality TV aspects globally (looking at this particular project).

The bigger problem is not "can they get the money" IMO, it's the logistics of doing it. Even if this project goes, it will take much longer than the timescale they have set ... dozens of problems will occur that will cause major delays.

[bryanbutler]

I think you're overestimating the costs, and underestimating how much a project like this could generate in revenue. This is the kind of project that could really snowball once it starts rolling. It really just takes one serious big name investor and a ton of money will flow in.

How much would a company like Google or Apple, with massive amounts of cash lying around, pay to have the ship or the settlement named after it (look at the silly sums companies pay for stadium naming rights ... and this is global)?

How much would a wannabe country like India pay to get one of their citizens on board?

With guaranteed money and big names, how much will big funds be willing to gamble?

Aside from the mega $$ from franchising the reality TV aspects globally (looking at this particular project).

The bigger problem is not "can they get the money" IMO, it's the logistics of doing it. Even if this project goes, it will take much longer than the timescale they have set ... dozens of problems will occur that will cause major delays.

people have been saying this for 30 years, and yet it doesn't happen. there is a reason. it's incredibly complex and incredibly expensive, and takes a long time, as you say. i just think it's beyond what is possible for individuals (or private industry) to accomplish. but we clearly disagree...

[johnnya24]

people have been saying this for 30 years, and yet it doesn't happen. there is a reason. it's incredibly complex and incredibly expensive, and takes a long time, as you say. i just think it's beyond what is possible for individuals (or private industry) to accomplish. but we clearly disagree...

Wager?

Mega bag of M&M's to the winner

[johnnya24]

The end of the Space Shuttle program will be important as it gives private enterprises like SpaceX the scope to grow and expand.

Here's an excerpt from Space X's wiki regarding one of their planned missions to Mars.

In addition to SpaceX's privately funded plans for an eventual Mars mission, as of July 2011 NASA Ames Research Center had developed a concept for a low-cost Mars mission that would use Falcon Heavy as the launch vehicle and trans-Martian injection vehicle, and the Dragon capsule to enter the Martian atmosphere. The concept, called 'Red Dragon', would be proposed for funding in 2012/2013 as a NASA Discovery mission, for launch in 2018 and arrival at Mars several months later. The science objectives of the mission would be to look for evidence of life — detecting "molecules that are proof of life, like DNA or perchlorate reductase ... proof of life through biomolecules. ... Red Dragon would drill 3.3 feet (1.0 m) or so underground, in an effort to sample reservoirs of water ice known to lurk under the red dirt." The mission cost is projected to be less than $425,000,000, not including the launch cost.

[TranaGreg]

why does this make me think of the First Contact episode of Star Trek TNG?

After Krola is returned to the planet, Durken tells Picard that he feels Malcor is not ready for First Contact, fearing his people are not mature enough to handle the startling announcement that they are not alone in the galaxy, and requests the Enterprise leave the planet, though they may be able to return at a later time.

[bryanbutler]

Wager?

Mega bag of M&M's to the winner

you're on .

ETA: but we need a "done by" date.

[bryanbutler]

The end of the Space Shuttle program will be important as it gives private enterprises like SpaceX the scope to grow and expand.

Here's an excerpt from Space X's wiki regarding one of their planned missions to Mars.

"not including the launch cost" is a key phrase there. as i've said, it's not the vehicle that's the most expensive (though i would vigorously dispute their $425M estimate). if you add up all the direct and indirect launch costs, it's prohibitively expensive.

the only way it works is if NASA gives cheap access to its facilities and people. not out of the question, but in the current funding environment, unlikely.

[johnnya24]

you're on .

ETA: but we need a "done by" date.

2030

We'll be able to 3D print M&M's by then!

[johnnya24]

"not including the launch cost" is a key phrase there. as i've said, it's not the vehicle that's the most expensive (though i would vigorously dispute their $425M estimate). if you add up all the direct and indirect launch costs, it's prohibitively expensive.

the only way it works is if NASA gives cheap access to its facilities and people. not out of the question, but in the current funding environment, unlikely.

NASA are paying Space X a lot of money to develop key components for the next gen ... including the space capsule for the next gen of manned NASA missions (due for 2017). Kinda like indirect government subsidies if you ask me. I think the US govt would like private enterprise to start picking up the slack also.

This is big money now. According to their wiki page, they alone have $4bn in contract revenue (commercial and Govt). They are also building their own commercial launch site.

[bryanbutler]

2030

We'll be able to 3D print M&M's by then!

OK, you're on. if i can still type by then!

[johnnya24]

OK, you're on. if i can still type by then!

No worries ... I can purée them for you. You've got that best of that [meaningless] bet IMO ... setting the line at 2030 favours the before.

[TranaGreg]

exploding 10 feet off the ground I guess could technically be called a "mission to mars". You might as well name it a "mission to pluto" and grab some higher ratings.

you were ahead of your time with this post ... all they need to do is post this Pluto pic recently released & they'll get thousands of applicants, no doubt ...



it's a fantastic pic ... apparently Pluto has an atmosphere.

[TranaGreg]

people have been saying this for 30 years, and yet it doesn't happen. there is a reason. it's incredibly complex and incredibly expensive, and takes a long time, as you say. i just think it's beyond what is possible for individuals (or private industry) to accomplish. but we clearly disagree...

Wager?

Mega bag of M&M's to the winner

you're on .

ETA: but we need a "done by" date.

2030

following up on this wager from a few years ago - if this very detailed article is to be believed, by the time your bet expires there will have been people on Mars for five years ... this is great reading for anyone interested in this, from the awesome guys at Wait But Why ...

SpaceX’s Big Fucking Rocket – The Full Story