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The Process Report - A Tampa Bay Rays blog
My article feed at Baseball Prospectus
My article feed at RotoWire
My Twitter feed
"Am I supposed to congratulate this man? Thank him for his good citizenship? Compliment him for being clever enough to arm himself with enough tax lawyers so that he could legally minimize his obligations? Thirteen percent. The last time I paid taxes at that rate, I believe I might still have been in college. If not, it was my first couple years as a newspaper reporter. Since then, the paychecks have been just fine, thanks, and I don’t see any reason not to pay at the rate appropriate to my earnings, given that I’m writing the check to the same government that provided the economic environment that allowed for such incomes." -- David Simon
1) Team's win/lossOriginally Posted by Moonlight J
2) High k/bb
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3) Low HR rate
I look at high k/bb rate when I'm looking for closer fliers, relievers who aren't currently closers but may get a shot at the job. But, for established closers, I take the ones on the better teams especially coming out of the draft. There's the old sound logic that you must get wins in order to get saves, but also knowing who the closer is at the end of the season has more to do with what teams think they are still in it at midseason than it does with any one particular closer's individual skill set. If the Mets are in it, they don't trade FRod and the mad rush to get those paltry NY saves doesn't happen. If the Phillies go into rebuild-mode, they never acquire Papelbon and Bastardo is a potential saves source. Because the A's are in total rebuild mode, Bailey has a good shot to be a set-up guy somewhere else regardless of his skills, and some other guy in Oakland's pen will pick up saves regardless of his skills. However, if a closer has lousy k/bb, he probably won't be around long and so I'm preparing to be needing saves later.
I guess it's Shandler's old adage about Skill/Opportunity/Guile. I put Opportunity #1, Skill #2, and Guile #3.
You left out the most important skill...a short memory.
I went with high K/BB (like almost everyone else), but would have picked low HR 2nd and high K third...
"You know what's wrong with America? If I lovingly tongue a woman's nipple in a movie, it gets an "NC-17" rating, if I chop it off with a machete, it's an "R". That's what's wrong with America, man...."--Dennis Hopper
"History is the Autobiography of a Mad Man" -- Alexander Herzen
Short Memory is good, but Guile (or Brass Cojones) is better. There are some closers that have willed their way to finish games despite poor stats and peripherals. It takes a certain type of mental state, a bulldog mentality, to be able to continuously close games and be successful most of the time. Call it confidence, bravado or swagger, but without it, you can't close.
If I'm speculating from a fantasy perspective, K/BB is probably the first stat I'll look at. In fact, I'm pretty much in agreement with the order you've got it in on the poll.
My $.02.
High K/BB is fine for starters, but for a closer, I want fewer balls in play and 6K:2BB does not cut it for me. I'll take my chances with an 8K:4BB guy.
I value high strikeout rate and high fastball velocity pretty heavily, more heavily than most here, I think. But a pitcher like that still needs to have some command of his fastball or a tough offspeed pitch that gets the batters to chase out of the zone with the two strikes. So I ended up voting for K:BB ratio, but I really have a fondness for the high-octane guys in relief.
"There was nothing for him to do under the truck, but it's tough to blame him now that he is dead." -V.Erps 3/26/2005
For a guy to get the job? A great K/9 and reasonable command.
For a guy to keep the job? A low GB or low HR rate.
Totally agree, Todd. A guy who racks up Ks can erase plenty of walks if need be. A guy with a good K/BB (driven as much by command as dominance) but not high K rate isn't as useful.
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