SeaDogStat Memorial League picks and discussion

[Todd Zola]

1.04 Jose Ramirez
2.27 Matt Olson
3.34 Aaron Nola
Pretty chalky and on brand. As others have noted, third base has a huge drop, so it's nice to address it early. I don't love filling first base before either middle, or even an outfielder, but I think I've gotten too cute in that regards lately, so while tie would have gone to another position, Olson's delta was sufficient to find a 2B and SS later.
This room has been a little slower with pitching than a typical NFBC draft (which is obviously fine). I don't think I'm breaking any unwritten etiquette rule by suggesting we're going to see a bunch of yellow over the next couple of rounds, and my No. 3 strating pitcher was available after six other starters have been drafted, so it was a no-brainer.
Now the hope is a hitter or two slide to me with so much pitching likely to be drafted over the next 25 or so picks.

[bryanbutler]

I'm happy I got my 2 SP, and was worried about what you're predicting, Todd - a big run on SP. 24 picks until it's back to me, and I'd be clearly out of the top tier. deGrom is a bit of an injury risk, but I'm hoping the new digs will help him return to form. No, I don't have any IF yet, but I'm still OK with Judge and the 2 SP.

I haven't done a draft in years. Probably 20 years, at least. Though I did participate in some of the mocks here on RJ back in the day. Anyway, this is all just kind of chucking darts for me, so pretty fun. I'm not working off of any lists, projections, etc., just winging it. Which is what makes it so fun .

[revo]

Lots o’ autopicks!

[Ken]

Lots o’ autopicks!

Not really, at least in the normal sense of the word - I've only seen a couple traditional auto picks.

Mine are of the "queue up my top 3 guys 2 picks before I start" variety.

[BuckyBuckner]

Not really, at least in the normal sense of the word - I've only seen a couple traditional auto picks. Mine are of the "queue up my top 3 guys 2 picks before I start" variety.

Yeah, mine were off my queue. Speaking of, I was four picks away from my two picks when I set up my queue and I got my 4th and 5th choices. I hate you all.

[Hornsby]

Yeah, mine were off my queue. Speaking of, I was four picks away from my two picks when I set up my queue and I got my 4th and 5th choices. I hate you all.

I can only hope that I contributed to your pain...

[DJBeasties]

DRAFT NOTIFICATIONS

Hey guys , hey!

I'm happy to be in this league and honoring a RJ legend such as SeaDogStat. I haven't been as much of a regular as I used to be but I'll rectify that this year. I still follow Lord Zola and of course Paul Sporer's work closely. It's like cheat codes for my local leagues.

Anyhow, I thought I should just recommend for the draft that you set up push notifications for picks if you are prone to long stretches of not checking. Auto-picks can be fine but as the draft goes along you will probably not want what the system serves up for you.



There are obviously many email platforms one can use and I can't go through every one of them but all of them have the option to mark them as important and to notify you.

On the draft board, top right hand corner you can select from settings for it to email you to notify you each pick, each round, when youre next, or when youre up.

Then, just elect in your email platform (Outlook, Gmail, Yahoo, whatever you use...) to push notify you when that email comes in.

Im not able to upload screenshots here for some reason or I could make a better tutorial but if anyone needs help let me know.

Happy drafting and good luck all!

[Hornsby]

Yeah, mine were off my queue. Speaking of, I was four picks away from my two picks when I set up my queue and I got my 4th and 5th choices. I hate you all.

I can only hope that I contributed to your pain...

[BuckyBuckner]

I can only hope that I contributed to your pain...

You did.

[Moonlight J]

I may be my own team's SP2 at this point

[ThatRogue]

I can only hope that I contributed to your pain...

Is there an echo in here?

[ThatRogue]

I may be my own team's SP2 at this point

What’s the spin rate on your pitches?

[The Feral Slasher]

Witt and M Harris were young and risky, so I figured I'd balance it out with some old and risky in Scherzer and Verlander. I'll see if I can go the whole draft without picking anyone aged 25-38.

[Ken]

As others have noted, third base has a huge drop, so it's nice to address it early.

Cherry picking this comment specifically because it comes from you and maybe you can talk some sense into me - your posts are very logical and stat based and align with how I think.

I've heard this comment about the top end 3B tier being short. I think that's absolutely correct. What I don't grasp is why I should care about that.

The reality is that in a draft format it's impossible to have an elite player at each position. You are going to end up with some positions that are upper tier and some that are lower. You may have a player in a different tier and realize some extra value in that situation if a player drops who you don't think should - but that's an issue with a delta between projections, not an issue with the overall market where everyone agrees that there's a small top tier for 3B.

So fundamentally, if we simplify the draft down to just 3B and everything else, I can have a great 3B and a replacement level player at some other position, OR I can have a replacement level player at 3B and a great player at another position.

But that isn't new - that's true for all positions and all years. Why does that change whether I specifically want an elite 3B? It doesn't give me an advantage explicitly to do so. Because by taking JoRam I'm not taking another 1st round talent.

I've seen talk about taking him 1.01, which on it's face I have no problem with, but just for the sake of taking a 3B because of the depth of 3B, I don't understand.

For me, the important point is replacement level. Because I have that choice of taking JoRam and a replacement at another position (lets say SS) or taking an elite SS and a replacement 3B (I'm simplifying here, obviously I could take an elite 3B and SS and suffer elsewhere).

But to demonstrate why this confuses me, lets look at real numbers. If we use TheBATX and compare JoRam + a 20th round SS (looks like Ha-Song Kim comes in around rd 17 right now, I'll use him) I come up with the following stats:

42 HR
29 SB
150 R
178 RBI
.259 Avg across 1267 AB

By comparison (since people are taking JoRam 1.01), if I take Trea Turner and then around Rd 20 his brother from another mother Justin (Turner), I get:

38 HR
30 SB
159 R
144 RBI
.274 Avg across 1240 AB

So I lose out on some RBI and gain some AVG and R. Overall pretty close to a wash.

How did the fact that the guy taking the 8th 3B off the board got a much worse 3B than the guy who took the 7th 3B off the board, since there was a big drop specifically there in the rankings, affect me and suggest I want the elite 3B?

[DJBeasties]

Witt and M Harris were young and risky, so I figured I'd balance it out with some old and risky in Scherzer and Verlander. I'll see if I can go the whole draft without picking anyone aged 25-38.

"It's a bold strategy, Cotton. Let's see how it works out."