Week 17 Thread

[chancellor]

Nearly midseason surprises:

- Two of the top four QB rating leaders are who we'd expect - Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes. The other two? Tua at #1 and Geno Smith at #3. Geno's career renaissance has been incredible to watch.
- Continuing on the Miami theme, Hill and Waddle are each in the top 10 for receiving yards/game; Hill leads the league by more than 10 yards/game for WRs who have played four games or more.
- The whole world knows Nick Chubb is Cleveland's best offensive weapon and he's still averaging just short of 6 yards/carry. Incredible.
- Jared Goff has been significantly better than I expected, especially factoring in injury issues at WR and RB the Lions have had. And he can't be blamed for the bad record when the Lions defense gets lit up on a weekly basis like a Pachinko machine.
- Welcome back, Saquon Barkley.
- Denver, GB, and TB are all 3-5, and none of them arguably have any quality wins. (TB beat Dallas, but Prescott got hurt in that game, Denver beat SF, but that was Jimmy G's first full game action with no preseason reps, and GB beat NE, but with their backup QB). The Rams are 3-4 and pretty much in the same situation.
- I didn't think the NFC South would be good, but the level of badness is, well, really, really bad.
- The Steelers have a -77 point differential in 8 games. Ouch.
- I didn't think Baker Mayfield would totally suck in Carolina. <BUZZER SOUNDS> Thank you for playing.

[revo]

Some more thoughts:
- The Panthers have 2 QBs on their roster who were taken with a Top 3 overall pick in the draft not too long ago, but their probable ROS starter is an undrafted free agent who once led the XFL in passing yards
- The Rams look nothing like the Super Bowl winning team from last season. The OL is terrible, and it's forcing Matt Stafford into bad throws and short passes. ARob's continued decline has allowed teams to just give Cooper Kupp free reign over the middle, and his 10.3 YPC avg is indicative of that strategy -- don't let Kupp beat us deep, because no one else can, and there's no running gam at all. Stafford's YPA is over 25% lower than last year. This is why they're looking into acquiring another WR like Brandin Cooks, but the problems run deeper than just that. It would be surprising if they made the playoffs at all.
- Nathaniel Hackett likely avoided the ax with the win vs. the Jags -- which came as a gift after Trevor Lawrence, who is backpeddling after a nice start, threw a pick in the end zone.
- if the Bills don't win the Super Bowl, or at least get there, it would be another major disappointment
- I have both the Bills and Eagles going 16-1. I did a nice exercise just before the season began, going through the schedule on a weekly basis and predicting the game winners. From that I predicted the Eagles and Giants fast starts, and am currently on pace for a 14-5 record on the win total o/u's
- I honestly have no idea what happened to the Raiders yesterday. It was a collective team disaster.
- the Falcons have surprised big-time and have stayed in most games until the end, even with an offense that seemingly hasn't really gotten going.
- it's possible these offensive players could be on the move by tomorrow: Cooks, Damien Harris, Cam Akers, Jerry Jeudy, Chase Claypool, David Montgomery, Kareem Hunt, Baker Mayfield

[The Feral Slasher]

Some more thoughts:
- The Panthers have 2 QBs on their roster who were taken with a Top 3 overall pick in the draft not too long ago, but their probable ROS starter is an undrafted free agent who once led the XFL in passing yards
- The Rams look nothing like the Super Bowl winning team from last season. The OL is terrible, and it's forcing Matt Stafford into bad throws and short passes. ARob's continued decline has allowed teams to just give Cooper Kupp free reign over the middle, and his 10.3 YPC avg is indicative of that strategy -- don't let Kupp beat us deep, because no one else can, and there's no running gam at all. Stafford's YPA is over 25% lower than last year. This is why they're looking into acquiring another WR like Brandin Cooks, but the problems run deeper than just that. It would be surprising if they made the playoffs at all.
- Nathaniel Hackett likely avoided the ax with the win vs. the Jags -- which came as a gift after Trevor Lawrence, who is backpeddling after a nice start, threw a pick in the end zone.
- if the Bills don't win the Super Bowl, or at least get there, it would be another major disappointment
- I have both the Bills and Eagles going 16-1. I did a nice exercise just before the season began, going through the schedule on a weekly basis and predicting the game winners. From that I predicted the Eagles and Giants fast starts, and am currently on pace for a 14-5 record on the win total o/u's
- I honestly have no idea what happened to the Raiders yesterday. It was a collective team disaster.I
- the Falcons have surprised big-time and have stayed in most games until the end, even with an offense that seemingly hasn't really gotten going.
- it's possible these offensive players could be on the move by tomorrow: Cooks, Damien Harris, Cam Akers, Jerry Jeudy, Chase Claypool, David Montgomery, Kareem Hunt, Baker Mayfield

I enjoy reading you and Chance's weekly musings. Hope the HISTORIC Bears trade Montgomery to make way for Herbert

[revo]

I enjoy reading you and Chance's weekly musings. Hope the HISTORIC Bears trade Montgomery to make way for Herbert

Thanks. It would be great if they did. The team's going nowhere and Montgomery is an unrestricted free agent after the season.

[Gregg]

The Chicago Bears are trading linebacker Roquan Smith to the Baltimore Ravens, according to Ian Rapoport.

The Bears are receiving 2023 second- and fifth-round picks for Smith, per ESPN’s Adam Schefter.

[Ken]

The Chicago Bears are trading linebacker Roquan Smith to the Baltimore Ravens, according to Ian Rapoport.

The Bears are receiving 2023 second- and fifth-round picks for Smith, per ESPN’s Adam Schefter.

I wonder what they would have gotten for him before this year? 2nd round is a nice return for 1/2 a season but surely the Bears could have gotten a 1st for a 2x all pro if they traded him in the offseason?

[Gregg]

I wonder what they would have gotten for him before this year? 2nd round is a nice return for 1/2 a season but surely the Bears could have gotten a 1st for a 2x all pro if they traded him in the offseason?

It was looking like they were going to pay him and have him part of the rebuild. Maybe they changed their minds and wanted to get rid of the drama. I am a bit disappointed in the return. Nice but not great.

The off season is going to be very interesting.

[revo]

Lions trade TJ Hockenson, a '23 4th rder and a '24 4th rder for a '23 2nd rder and a '24 3rd rder

Steelers trade Chase Claypool to the Bears for a '23 2nd rder

[chancellor]

Chubb to the Dolphins for the San Fran 1st, Chase Edwards, and a 4th/5th round swap. Dolphins also dealt for Jeff Wilson from the 49ers; don't know the return.

Ridley to the Jags; picks determined by reinstatement time and production. Best guess is it'll be a 5th in '23 and a 3rd in '24.

Steelers dealt for William Jackson from Washington. Late round pick swap.

[revo]

Dolphins acquired EDGE Bradley Chubb and a 2025 fifth-round pick from the Broncos in exchange for RB Chase Edmonds, a 2024 fourth-round pick, and San Francisco's 2023 first-round pick

Steelers acquired CB William Jackson from the Commanders

Dolphins acquired Jeff Wilson from the 49ers for a 2023 fifth-round pick

Jaguars acquired Calvin Ridley from the Falcons for two future conditional draft selections

[chancellor]

I missed the Nyheim Hines deal - looks like he went to the Bills for Zach Moss and a 6th round pick.

[The Feral Slasher]

anyone to target in waivers based on the deals that have gone down ?

[revo]

anyone to target in waivers based on the deals that have gone down ?

Lessee:
Hockenson deal — forget the new Lions TE, and Irv Smith is out for the season
Claypool deal — George Pickens if he’s available. Claypool’s value also increases since CHI will feed him targets to justify the deal
Jeff Wilson deal — this means Elijah Mitchell is on track to return, and TDP should get more touches until then. This also knocks Mostert down a notch.
Edmonds deal — he may take over as RB1 in Denver. He’ll at least have more value than he had before.
Hines deal — Deon Jackson is now firmly RB2 in Indy. Hines drained any remaining value from James Cook and knocked Singletary a tad.

[Gregg]

Lessee:
Hockenson deal — forget the new Lions TE, and Irv Smith is out for the season
Claypool deal — George Pickens if he’s available. Claypool’s value also increases since CHI will feed him targets to justify the deal
Jeff Wilson deal — this means Elijah Mitchell is on track to return, and TDP should get more touches until then. This also knocks Mostert down a notch.
Edmonds deal — he may take over as RB1 in Denver. He’ll at least have more value than he had before.
Hines deal — Deon Jackson is now firmly RB2 in Indy. Hines drained any remaining value from James Cook and knocked Singletary a tad.

umm...Claypool's value increases because he steps in as the best receiver on the Bears team.

[Pauly]

So far, the Dolphins trade of Laremy Tunsil to the Texans has gotten them:
Noah Igbinoghene
Jaylen Waddle
Jevon Holland
Tyreek Hill
Bradley Chubb
2025 5th Round pick

Move over Herschel...this might be the best trade ever.