RHD's Latest Top 150 Roto Prospects ("Mid-Season" Edition)

[Teenwolf]

Thanx for the response, SM.

Muncy and Santos werent particularly close. I was unfamiliar w Mena. After looking him up, I added him to my list. FG gave him a 35+ FV rating and he didnt appear on BA's updated team Top 30 prospects list. So he also is pretty far down.

I like Christian Mena quite a bit among this year's breakout pitchers. Teenagers playing well in full season ball will always get my attention, and he kinda dominated low-A, will spend half a season in A+, turns 20 in December. Especially when they're already showing strong command (30.7% K, 7.0% BB in low-A).

Wish I'd snagged him, though I did manage to get Gordon Graceffo, and I love the elite command profile guys (Musgrove, Kirby). Starting with 60+ grade command really helps raise the ceiling on pitchers, and the floor too when you consider how much good command lowers bullpen risk.

[Gregg]

Travis Swaggerty was called up by the Pirates and then got sent down (1-9). He is 5F in our NL only league. Since he was activated by the owner and remains on his active roster he can trade him. If he reserves him he cannot be traded until after the All Star Game.

Our rules allow us to activate rookies but they do not lose their rookie status unless they get 125 abs.

He seems like a pretty good gamble for 5 bucks (or free). But I do not see him on your list?

I would appreciate any thoughts on this 2018 first round draft pick that is still only 24 years old.

[rhd]

Travis Swaggerty was called up by the Pirates and then got sent down (1-9). He is 5F in our NL only league. Since he was activated by the owner and remains on his active roster he can trade him. If he reserves him he cannot be traded until after the All Star Game.

Our rules allow us to activate rookies but they do not lose their rookie status unless they get 125 abs.

He seems like a pretty good gamble for 5 bucks (or free). But I do not see him on your list?

I would appreciate any thoughts on this 2018 first round draft pick that is still only 24 years old.

Thanx for the response, Gregg.

I dont hold out much hope for Swaggerty being anything significant in MLB at this point. He'll be 25 y/o next month. Some excerpts from his BA report: "Although Swaggerty’ s defense in center field is excellent, he has yet to prove he can hit for either average or impact." And "He has the ceiling of a second-division starter if he can demonstrate more consistent hitting ability." I would project him as a possible extra OFer.

[Sharky]

Rhd, you are a machine!! (In the best way, of course). Thanks for sharing your views. Always so helpful and interesting.

[rhd]

Rhd, you are a machine!! (In the best way, of course). Thanks for sharing your views. Always so helpful and interesting.

Thanx, as always, for the response, Sharky. And for the props.

[rhd]

Nice thanks rhd!

Holy crap Andruw Jones seems suuuuper high

Just thought I'd post this. FG has listed where the new draftees would be likely to be placed on their top 100. They would slot Jones at #10 (after G-Rod and before Volpe). So apparently, I was too conservative w him .

They indicate that 7 other new draftees would likely be on their top 100: J Holliday (#20), Lee (#25), T Johnson (#27), Z Neto (#54), K Parada (#67), D Lesko (#78), J Berry (#93).

5 of these 8 new draftees are on my top 150. Parada is not and probably will not be moving on any time soon, mainly because he is a catcher. Lesko is not because he is HS pitcher who has a major arm injury. Neto is the other one missing and I would consider moving him on and may do so before the end of the year. 3 draftees were on my list that wouldnt make their top 100: Elijah Green, Cam Collier and Chase Delauter. All 3 were taken in the top 18 picks so I'm feeling good about keeping them about where I have them. ranked. I'm very surprised that Green would not make the FG Top 100, as early on he was considered the favorite to go #1 overall.

[Ken]

Just thought I'd post this. FG has listed where the new draftees would be likely to be placed on their top 100. They would slot Jones at #10 (after G-Rod and before Volpe). So apparently, I was too conservative w him .

They indicate that 7 other new draftees would likely be on their top 100: J Holliday (#20), Lee (#25), T Johnson (#27), Z Neto (#54), K Parada (#67), D Lesko (#78), J Berry (#93).

5 of these 8 new draftees are on my top 150. Parada is not and probably will not be moving on any time soon, mainly because he is a catcher. Lesko is not because he is HS pitcher who has a major arm injury. Neto is the other one missing and I would consider moving him on and may do so before the end of the year. 3 draftees were on my list that wouldnt make their top 100: Elijah Green, Cam Collier and Chase Delauter. All 3 were taken in the top 18 picks so I'm feeling good about keeping them about where I have them. ranked. I'm very surprised that Green would not make the FG Top 100, as early on he was considered the favorite to go #1 overall.

Green is boom or bust. The way he was striking out against HS competition is very concerning, if he can't correct that he's a bust. But if he can, he could easily be the jewel of this draft class.

[rhd]

Green is boom or bust. The way he was striking out against HS competition is very concerning, if he can't correct that he's a bust. But if he can, he could easily be the jewel of this draft class.

Yeah, he is considered a hi-risk player. But lots of top prospects are hi risk. He was still considered to be in the top tier of 6-7 draftees at the time of the draft. Just surprising that FG apparently considers him so risky that they wouldnt even give him a spot in their top 100.

[Ken]

Yeah, he is considered a hi-risk player. But lots of top prospects are hi risk. He was still considered to be in the top tier of 6-7 draftees at the time of the draft. Just surprising that FG apparently considers him so risky that they wouldnt even give him a spot in their top 100.

I think he had a higher K rate than any 1st round pick in the last 3 years. Feels like "high risk" is too generic of a term, it's possible he is the most likely player of the last few years to have a 30 grade hit tool or below. I can see why someone would not want to rank him highly until they see that the contact issue is resolved. He can have the best tools in the draft but if he can't hit the ball, he's useless.

Huge talent, huge risk.

[onejayhawk]

Can you give more insight into Elly de la Cruz? He seems like a lottery ticket with Juan Soto upside and 90% downside.

[Ken]

Can you give more insight into Elly de la Cruz? He seems like a lottery ticket with Juan Soto upside and 90% downside.

He doesn’t have Soto upside

[onejayhawk]

He doesn’t have Soto upside

Fair enough. How about Edwin Encarnacion but with a glove?

J

[Teenwolf]

Can you give more insight into Elly de la Cruz? He seems like a lottery ticket with Juan Soto upside and 90% downside.

The appeal of Elly De La Cruz is that he could end up hitting 30+ HR with 30+ SB (Fangraphs has 80 power, 70 speed ceiling). As base stealers are becoming more and more rare, and many SB guys offer only 3 categories (BA, R, SB), true 5 category guys are tougher to find than ever.

The big question has always been the BA risk due to his K rate. It's the same story as Oneil Cruz, Bobby Witt or Jazz Chisholm. So he has huge upside in 4 categories with BA risk that could possibly tank the entire profile.

I love this profile, despite the huge risks involved. If I were rebuilding, he's done enough at Hi-A (20 HR, 28 SB in 73 games, 30.7% K rate) to warrant top 5-10 overall prospect status in my mind.

He's just been promoted to AA, so if he struggles at all there and it makes him available, I'd take a shot.

[rhd]

Can you give more insight into Elly de la Cruz? He seems like a lottery ticket with Juan Soto upside and 90% downside.

Thanx for the response, J.

De La Cruz certainly has tons of upside but I wouldnt say it is quite as hi as Soto's. Nor would I say that his downside is as large as you suggest, altho he is considered a hi-risk prospect because of his aggressive approach. BA says he is the rare prospect w 3 70s on his scouting report, which are speed, arm and raw power, altho his game power apparently is rated at 60. Currently, he is 1 of 2 minor leaguers w 20/20 HR/SB (Vaun Brown is the other). The power/speed combo makes him very attractive for roto. However, his K-rate this year is 31% and it was about the same last year. So far, the aggressive approach is working as his prospect status has zoomed and he has a .295 career BA and a .527 SLG. And he's improved his walk rate this year to a more or less normal 7.9%. The concern is that as he get promoted to higher levels w better pitching whether he'll continue to have similar success w the aggressive hitting approach. No one knows but BA rates his hit tool at 50, which is encouraging. I would call him a borderline elite prospect at this point and I think where I have him ranked (currently #27) reflects an appropriate mix of potential reward and risk.

[onejayhawk]

Thanx for the response, J.

De La Cruz certainly has tons of upside but I wouldnt say it is quite as hi as Soto's. Nor would I say that his downside is as large as you suggest, altho he is considered a hi-risk prospect because of his aggressive approach. BA says he is the rare prospect w 3 70s on his scouting report, which are speed, arm and raw power, altho his game power apparently is rated at 60. Currently, he is 1 of 2 minor leaguers w 20/20 HR/SB (Vaun Brown is the other). The power/speed combo makes him very attractive for roto. However, his K-rate this year is 31% and it was about the same last year. So far, the aggressive approach is working as his prospect status has zoomed and he has a .295 career BA and a .527 SLG. And he's improved his walk rate this year to a more or less normal 7.9%. The concern is that as he get promoted to higher levels w better pitching whether he'll continue to have similar success w the aggressive hitting approach. No one knows but BA rates his hit tool at 50, which is encouraging. I would call him a borderline elite prospect at this point and I think where I have him ranked (currently #27) reflects an appropriate mix of potential reward and risk.

That's helpful, thanks.

Do you have any information on why he strikes out so much? Some things are more fixable than others.

His promotion to AA intrigues me. How he does will tell me how to handle his rights this winter.