Midterm Election Thread

[fuhrdog]

Latest 4 Generic Congress polls on RCP:

Economist/YouGov	Republicans 40, Democrats 43	Democrats +3
Quinnipiac	Republicans 44, Democrats 45	Democrats +1
Politico/Morning Consult	Republicans 41, Democrats 45	Democrats +4
CNN	Republicans 46, Democrats 46	Tie

I'm still not hopeful, but it seems like Roe v. Wade being overturned has spurred the Dem cause.

Despite all the things the Democrats have been given that should help them I'm fairly confident they will find a way to screw it up.

[revo]

The GOP takeover is far from a slam dunk in the Senate -- clowns like that quack Dr Oz and Lyin' Herschel Walker, who apparently has taken too many hits to the noggin, are blowing their races. Psycho JD Vance is also losing to Tim Ryan, who has outraised him by 9-1.

[revo]

Wow

[revo]

Abortion rights was on the ballot in Kansas and pro-choice won by a staggering 59-41 margin (TFG won the state in '20 by 15 points, assuming he didn't cheat). The motivation of abortion rights drove a turnout of 940,000 Kansans, which is remarkable for that state in a non-general election, which in 2018 was about 1.05m. Primary and referendum elections usually get a fraction of the turnout of a mid-term.

Abortion rights are now a major lightning rod for Dems, especially in states where governors could overturn the state's abortion rights (in PA for example), and this doesn't bode well for the GOP in what should be a walkover in November.



538.com now gives Dems a 58% likelihood of keeping the Senate. Last month it was as high as 60% for the GOP.

[revo]

August 3rd, and still, Dems outpolling Reps in multiple polls:

2022 Generic Congressional Vote	Economist/YouGov	Republicans 39, Democrats 44	Democrats +5
2022 Generic Congressional Vote	InsiderAdvantage	Republicans 45, Democrats 44	Republicans +1
2022 Generic Congressional Vote	Politico/Morning Consult	Republicans 43, Democrats 45	Democrats +2
2022 Generic Congressional Vote	Monmouth	Republicans 46, Democrats 49	Democrats +3