2K22: Humidor Effect

[revo]

MJ noted that Runs/Gm is way down over previous Aprils.

HR% is also WAY down, from 3.3% in 2021 to 2.4% through 4/25/22, a 27% decrease.

[Ken]

Yes, it seems pretty evident now with the data.

Questions going forward are - how sticky is this - will they keep the ball/humidor the same?

If it sticks, who benefits and who suffers? It seems like guys who suffered in the past with the longball, like Kyle Wright and Dylan Bundy, approve.

[revo]

Yes, it seems pretty evident now with the data.

Questions going forward are - how sticky is this - will they keep the ball/humidor the same?

If it sticks, who benefits and who suffers? It seems like guys who suffered in the past with the longball, like Kyle Wright and Dylan Bundy, approve.

Yup - who benefits? Who doesn't? I would assume guys who didn't hit the ball far in '21 but had a decent amount of HRs would be the most susceptible to loss, and the reverse for the pitchers, such as the two you mentioned.

I would love to see a list of those who had 20+ HRs in '21 ranked by Avg Distance per Flyball, if such a stat exists

[Ken]

Yup - who benefits? Who doesn't? I would assume guys who didn't hit the ball far in '21 but had a decent amount of HRs would be the most susceptible to loss, and the reverse for the pitchers, such as the two you mentioned.

I would love to see a list of those who had 20+ HRs in '21 ranked by Avg Distance per Flyball, if such a stat exists

This may help on the HR side?

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/leaderboard/home-runs?player_type=Batter&year=2021&team=&min=20&sort=4&sortDir=asc

[Ken]

also this one:

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/leaderboard/statcast?type=batter&year=2021&position=&team=&min=q&sort=11&sortDir=desc

[revo]

This may help on the HR side?

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/leade...=4&sortDir=asc

Ha, was just looking at that exact stat for '21.

Doubters 2021
Castellanos 21
Harper 20
Harrison 19
Albies19
Edman 17

So far it hasn't affected two of those 5, lol.

[Ken]

also this one:

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/leade...1&sortDir=desc

Grisham and Semien scare me.

[revo]

The leaguewide BA through yesterday was .231.

That would be the lowest in MLB history, beating 1968, the year pitching so dominated that they had to lower the mound, by SIX POINTS.

[GwynnInTheHall]

Is MiLB using the same kind of balls (humidored)?

[Ken]

What changes when mlb teams lose 2 relievers next week? Make any difference?

[revo]

What changes when mlb teams lose 2 relievers next week? Make any difference?

Good question: less fresh arms is a negative, but two less borderline MLB pitchers is a positive? I’d guess it’s an overall negative for pitching.

[Ken]

Good question: less fresh arms is a negative, but two less borderline MLB pitchers is a positive? I’d guess it’s an overall negative for pitching.

Agree.

I dont think the talent curve for middle relievers is very steep. The guys that are going back and forth between MLB and AAA (the 24th-28th guy on your roster) are very similar. That part of the curve is basically flat.

Like you alluded to above, it's not quality that's the factor it's quantity. Managers can afford to switch out their pitchers more and keep everyone fresh in the bullpen.

We will see slightly more runs in May IMO

[Sharky]

We will see slightly more runs in May IMO

Let’s hope so, Ken. This is brutal. I don’t need football scores, but this is not great.

[rhd]

In my 3 leagues:

League 1: My .2523 BA leads the league
League 2: My .248 BA is 2nd. .255 leads the league
League 3: Offensive explosion! I lead the league w a .2726 BA. Very wide distribution, tho. Last place is .1941 and 3 others are below .220.

[revo]

What changes when mlb teams lose 2 relievers next week? Make any difference?

I actually just read that the 14-pitcher max was extended to May 29 (from May 2).

So maybe not?