Buying low - slow starts

[Bene Futuis]

Tyler Mahle is another buy low target thus far.

[Gregg]

Tucker is at the very top of the buy low list.

Other higher tier guys include Luis Robert and Jesse Winker, both of whom have nice underlying peripherals that would belie their poor starts.

Roberts has 5 sbs. That alone would take him off the buy low list. Certainly could try, but as a Roberts owner, I will wait for him to heat up.

[Ken]

Roberts has 5 sbs. That alone would take him off the buy low list. Certainly could try, but as a Roberts owner, I will wait for him to heat up.

Agree, no one that bought Roberts in any of my leagues would want to sell him, he's fine. Same for Tucker -- 3 HR, 2 SB, .305 xBA, .612 xSLG, .403 xwOBA

Is it really a buy low these days if a guy is obviously doing fine but the surface stats don't match? I guess if you lucked into being in a league where the guy drafting Tucker doesn't understand the underlying skills of his own player you can try.

[Bene Futuis]

I see it every year. It's not rational, but it happens all the time.

Ok, Ken.

[Ken]

Ok, Ken.

Touche!

I wasn't talking about 1st round talents who are actually still showing 1st round skills, I was referring to selling your 4th starting outfielder because of a 1 week slump.

I also think there's a difference between selling a guy who is actually playing poorly in a short sample (which I still think is irrational) and selling one who is just clearly BABIP unlucky and still getting you HR and SB (which is just incredibly stupid).

But your point is fair.

[revo]

Yeah, the "buy low" likely applies to those who are attainable. Luis Robert, Kyle Tucker, probably not. But certainly someone may be frustrated enough with a Christian Yelich or Justin Turner now.

[Pauly]

I am pretty damn willing to dump Trent Grisham right now.

[Gregg]

What will you give me for a 25B Charlie Morton?

[revo]

AL Buy Low Batters
Gleyber Torres - .212, 1 HR
Joey Gallo - .161, 2 HR, 26 Ks in 56 ABs
Mike Zunino - 83 cent
Randy Arozarena - .203, 0 HR+SB....might cost a bit more, but maybe he's now attainable
Josh Lowe- overmatched, probably could be had for a song in redraft leagues
Bobby Dalbec - .161, 1 HR
Miguel Sano - 96 cent, 1 HR
Carlos Correa - .167, 1 HR
Yasmani Grandal - .163, 1 HR
Amed Rosario - .222, 0 HR, 1 SB
Franmil Reyes - buck fitty two, 30 Ks in 66 ABs
Whit Merrifield - can he be had? doubt it, but at .136 with just 2 runs, maybe now's the time to ask
Jonathan Schoop - .154, 1 HR
Akil Baddoo - I bet his owners are dying to get rid of him
Jarred Kelenic - when we he get it going? .148/.217/.315
Julio Rodriguez - obviously in redrafts only, but .188 with 0 HRs
Marcus Semien - .167, 0 HR. Still would be pricey, but maybe those fingers are getting looser.....

[Bene Futuis]

Yeah, the "buy low" likely applies to those who are attainable. Luis Robert, Kyle Tucker, probably not. But certainly someone may be frustrated enough with a Christian Yelich or Justin Turner now.

I think you guys are way off base with this stuff. Luis Robert has had exactly one half of one year of above average production that was inflated by unsustainable underlying stats. I guess I wouldn't sell low, but the dude isn't in some otherworldly realm or something. Equal chance that he is just not as good as those who burned a top pick on him thought he was. Tucker is, at least to me, a significantly better bet, but also has a very short track record. I am a Kyle Tucker owner and will certainly not sell low on him but thinking these guys are "unattainable" doesn't track with me at all. I would try to buy low on Kyle Tucker on the chance that someone else recognizes that. I guess I'd try to buy low on Robert but it's not like he's some untouchable luminary. Either way, never know until you try.

[Pauly]

I think you guys are way off base with this stuff. Luis Robert has had exactly one half of one year of above average production that was inflated by unsustainable underlying stats. I guess I wouldn't sell low, but the dude isn't in some otherworldly realm or something. Equal chance that he is just not as good as those who burned a top pick on him thought he was. Tucker is, at least to me, a significantly better bet, but also has a very short track record. I am a Kyle Tucker owner and will certainly not sell low on him but thinking these guys are "unattainable" doesn't track with me at all. I would try to buy low on Kyle Tucker on the chance that someone else recognizes that. I guess I'd try to buy low on Robert but it's not like he's some untouchable luminary. Either way, never know until you try.

I might be late to the party here, but it has only been a few weeks since you spent a first or second rounder on either of these guys. I cant see someone giving up and taking quarters (or worse) on the dollar this soon. If anything people would have to overpay for these guys relative to what they are doing. Sorry if this has already been said!

[Bene Futuis]

I might be late to the party here, but it has only been a few weeks since you spent a first or second rounder on either of these guys. I cant see someone giving up and taking quarters on the dollar this soon. If anything people would have to overpay for these guys relative to what they are doing. Sorry if this has already been said!

I wouldn't and generally don't favor selling low, but take a look at the history of the free agent league to see all sorts of gems that get outright dropped after poor starts. Happens all the time, even if it's irrational - at least that's what I've heard.

Probably more of a small league thing, though, since you can't wait too long for players to come around when there's great talent on the wire.

[Ken]

I wouldn't and generally don't favor selling low, but take a look at the history of the free agent league to see all sorts of gems that get outright dropped after poor starts. Happens all the time, even if it's irrational - at least that's what I've heard.

Probably more of a small league thing, though, since you can't wait too long for players to come around when there's great talent on the wire.

This is going to come off harsh, but... I don't consider those posts in the free agent league to be indicative of fantasy baseball. That's an entirely different sport. IMO it's akin to comparing mlb to tee-ball.

They are free leagues so the owners aren't truly invested, they are shallow leagues so valuations matter less since there's good players available as free agents.

It's just a different game. Could we all have fun with it an easily win those leagues. Sure. But Mike Trout could dominate against tee-ball competition with his eyes closed too. The question is what's the point?

[Pauly]

This is going to come off harsh, but... I don't consider those posts in the free agent league to be indicative of fantasy baseball. That's an entirely different sport. IMO it's akin to comparing mlb to tee-ball.

They are free leagues so the owners aren't truly invested, they are shallow leagues so valuations matter less since there's good players available as free agents.

It's just a different game. Could we all have fun with it an easily win those leagues. Sure. But Mike Trout could dominate against tee-ball competition with his eyes closed too. The question is what's the point?

I 100% agree and dont think it's harsh. To judge what an invested fantasy manager would do vs. a person who fired up a freebie league to do a draft would be apples and oranges at best.

[Gregg]

I think you guys are way off base with this stuff. Luis Robert has had exactly one half of one year of above average production that was inflated by unsustainable underlying stats. I guess I wouldn't sell low, but the dude isn't in some otherworldly realm or something. Equal chance that he is just not as good as those who burned a top pick on him thought he was. Tucker is, at least to me, a significantly better bet, but also has a very short track record. I am a Kyle Tucker owner and will certainly not sell low on him but thinking these guys are "unattainable" doesn't track with me at all. I would try to buy low on Kyle Tucker on the chance that someone else recognizes that. I guess I'd try to buy low on Robert but it's not like he's some untouchable luminary. Either way, never know until you try.

Would you trade Tucker straight up for Ohtani who is done this year. Daily moves can play both ways. Tucker you get to keep this year and next at 20 no extensions.