Manaea and FAA B?

[rhd]

What level player do you need available at the trade deadline to be worth a full season of Manaea in this format where there are 0 starters available in free agency?

That's difficult to answer because it depends on circumstances. If I already have what I think is a solid pitching staff, I'm not as interested. If I'm light in SPing and maybe a little worried about innings, I might be tempted to spend big on someone like Manaea. But to try to address the point that you're evidently trying to drive at, I dont know but I suppose I might need to get a true ace like Cole or Scherzer to get what might be called "equivalent" value. But your question is very abstract. It takes at least about 6 weeks of the season to determine what your team's needs are. If you need hitting and not pitching, you might be doing yourself a disservice by spending big FAAB early on pitching and not having enough to get hitting later. One year, I picked up Shane Bieber for something like $5 FAAB and he probably pitched as well or better that 1st year than Manaea will this year. And I could keep him at $10, so I did. A while back, Tim Hudson was similar. So one can sometimes pick up solid SPs early w/o blowing your FAAB. You can take quite a few flyers on pitching prospects for $5 or less and some of them turn out to be studs. That's what I llke to do.

[harmon]

That's difficult to answer because it depends on circumstances. If I already have what I think is a solid pitching staff, I'm not as interested. If I'm light in SPing and maybe a little worried about innings, I might be tempted to spend big on someone like Manaea. But to try to address the point that you're evidently trying to drive at, I dont know but I suppose I might need to get a true ace like Cole or Scherzer to get what might be called "equivalent" value. But your question is very abstract. It takes at least about 6 weeks of the season to determine what your team's needs are. If you need hitting and not pitching, you might be doing yourself a disservice by spending big FAAB early on pitching and not having enough to get hitting later. One year, I picked up Shane Bieber for something like $5 FAAB and he probably pitched as well or better that 1st year than Manaea will this year. And I could keep him at $10, so I did. A while back, Tim Hudson was similar. So one can sometimes pick up solid SPs early w/o blowing your FAAB. You can take quite a few flyers on pitching prospects for $5 or less and some of them turn out to be studs. That's what I llke to do.

Someone is probably going to "break the bank" for Manaea. You don't want to or feel you need to be that guy. Fair enough.

I think Manaea for the full season is worth a solid bid unless you have a full roster of pitchers you love, but it's good we all don't think alike.

[Ken]

That's difficult to answer because it depends on circumstances. If I already have what I think is a solid pitching staff, I'm not as interested. If I'm light in SPing and maybe a little worried about innings, I might be tempted to spend big on someone like Manaea. But to try to address the point that you're evidently trying to drive at, I dont know but I suppose I might need to get a true ace like Cole or Scherzer to get what might be called "equivalent" value. But your question is very abstract. It takes at least about 6 weeks of the season to determine what your team's needs are. If you need hitting and not pitching, you might be doing yourself a disservice by spending big FAAB early on pitching and not having enough to get hitting later. One year, I picked up Shane Bieber for something like $5 FAAB and he probably pitched as well or better that 1st year than Manaea will this year. And I could keep him at $10, so I did. A while back, Tim Hudson was similar. So one can sometimes pick up solid SPs early w/o blowing your FAAB. You can take quite a few flyers on pitching prospects for $5 or less and some of them turn out to be studs. That's what I llke to do.

We have very different experiences in deep only leagues apparently. For every team in every league of that format I’ve ever seen, the primary need is “guy who plays regularly”. There simply aren’t enough of them to go around in a league this size. If somehow you have a “full” staff (and I use that term lightly because in this format that’s almost impossible), you have a hole somewhere else and someone is more than happy to trade just for a guy who gets them innings, much less positive value innings

Assessing needs isn’t really a thing in a deep format, you can see your needs pretty apparently when you are starting a middling infielder who gets 1 game a week for example. And that’s if you are lucky and don’t have to start someone on IL.

In some ways “would you pick up average player off FAAB” in this format is akin to “would you want an ace off FAAB” in other formats.

Definitely understand if you just like having faab dollars for later but in the end I don’t think that’s the best play. I can see where you are coming from though

[CC2022]

I'm in an 11 team, NL only redraft auction league with $100 faab and he went for $53 last night. I bid $24. The guy who got him at least had terrible pitching and really needed a boost but damn, $53!

[Gregg]

The problem is that this question incorporates several disparate questions.

1) How much should you bid on Manaea? In a deep league in an Only format, it's unlikely you'll have many more similarly valued players available, and combined with the fact that you get Manaea ALL year, he's a great pickup.
2) Given the format, what will other people bid? In this scenario it's obvious that several people will bid 24. They are incentivized to do so because of the odd rules that make 24 special. So a bid of 21 in my opinion makes zero sense. You know you will not win the bid. And a bid of 24 means you will likely tie another team
2a) So what are the tiebreaking rules?
3) How likely is Manaea to be worth keeping at the price bid upon? At >=25 it seems unlikely that he's a keeper, so you will likely be dropping him.
4) How good is your team otherwise? If this leads you to winning your league maybe it's worth throwing the extra $
5) And, this is one I dislike, how much extra $ are you willing to spend on fantasy baseball? If it's nothing to you to throw extra $ into the pot because this price point means nothing then we should analyze this question without caring about the "real money" part of the question. If, instead, this amount of money makes it so that you feel like you are wasting money on a hobby, then that's a consequential part of the equation.

I'll restate, I dislike #5. I don't like rules that punish you for playing the game monetarily. It sets it up so that some people are less likely to put in a FAAB bid because they got fired at work last week and $ is tight and you can't justify to your wife spending $102 on a hobby. This is a game and it shouldn't go there. Perhaps I'm being too dramatic, but hopefully that sheds some light on it.

But in summary, it's really hard to answer this question because there are so many variables in play. Is there a guy in your league who has a yacht, a vacation house and 3 sportscars in his garage? If so I might answer differently than if you play with a bunch of guys who are barely getting by. Which is a really weird thing for a fantasy baseball forum.

Gregg, do you care about the $ you'd end up throwing away if you cut him? If not, then we can answer this as if that rule didn't exist! And you can just money whip your league mates

Wow you all were busy while I was out last night.

Ken This is a great post. And what I was looking for when I posted.

As far as the real money goes I would like it if it didn't matter to anyone in our league. But I suspect it does for some. Not because they cannot afford it but because they don't want to spend it. I look at the total cost of this hobby and divide it by 12. It is a good entertainment value. My wife sends the funds and never complains.

My biggest concern is that I will have used up a sizeable portion of my FAAB in the first week. This will drastically alter how I have played the game my whole entire time.

There is no way for me to get a real read on how the bidding will go. It has been all over the board over the years with the exception of a handful of players. There are two or three that sit on their FAAB until the end to grab players coming over.. I do not do that as i want maximum stats early. I suspect it will take 40-50 to win Manaea. So if I really want to win the bid I think I have to bid 51. The fear is that I end up spending 20 bucks too much. I know I should not look at it this way. Another reason for posting.

I do think I have a pretty competitive team. It would not hurt to keep Manaea off other rosters. I would feel better spending the money on offense but that is just how I feel and not necessarily what I would do.

I appreciate you taking the time to ask the questions as it makes me think and helps come to a conclusion. I also appreciate the advice.

[Gregg]

Yeah, I refrained from answering, as I just do not know enough about how the rules in your league affect bidding, so my input would be an uneducated guess. I can say that my first impression was that $51 seemed high. I'd be surprised if you did not land him at that bid, and my assumption is you could probably get him for less. I would only bid him up to a cost that I could see keeping him at if he had a good year, personally. I would not want to pay real dollars to cut him, unless this is a big money league and the real money cost gives you a competitive advantage to win a lot more money than his cost.

I expect the bid to be higher than his worth as a keeper. It is hard to win the league and Flags fly forever.

This is new ground to have someone come into the league this early.

[Gregg]

Thinking about what the 400th best nl player is like I think 50 might be too low of a bid

hmm...you may be right. I was thinking 51, if I go.

[Gregg]

Yes, and in this case very different because if you bid over $24, you're bidding real money. My way is just the way I do it for a similar scenario and I've had reasonably good success w it. Straight FAAB is a completely different story. And, obviously, the bid depends on a lot of circumstances, like how badly you need pitching and at what point of the season it is. I just dont value Manaea as highly as many others do.

I do not value him that high either. But this is the best of the best until later in the year. I think I have to capitalize on the opportunity.

[Gregg]

Sure, I account for that in my FAAB spending. But I just wouldnt spend as much early FAAB on Manaea as evidently a lot of others would. I understand your point and you're welcome to spend big on him, if you want.

Which is why I posted in the first place.

All posts have been helpful.

[Gregg]

I'm in an 11 team, NL only redraft auction league with $100 faab and he went for $53 last night. I bid $24. The guy who got him at least had terrible pitching and really needed a boost but damn, $53!

That is a lot and not surprising to me.

I would be interested to know what the second highest bid was.

[Gregg]

Just want to say thank you to all who gave input.

It is very helpful in my decision making process.

[CC2022]

That is a lot and not surprising to me.

I would be interested to know what the second highest bid was.

You and me both brother.

[Gregg]

So now with Taylor Rogers coming over and named the closer, this puts a new wrinkle in the ol FAAB bid.

If Taylor actually gets the closer job and keeps it for most of the season, he can and will be worth more points than Manaea right?

I have a good closer in Diaz, but the only other pitcher that might get me some saves is Ottivino.

Does the Taylor signing lower the bids on Manaea.

Does it make more sense for me to pass on him and drop some cash on Taylor?

My starting pitching is:

Charlie Morton
Carlos Rodon
Adam Wainwright
Logan Webb
Huascar Ynoa

[Pauly]

So now with Taylor Rogers coming over and named the closer, this puts a new wrinkle in the ol FAAB bid.

If Taylor actually gets the closer job and keeps it for most of the season, he can and will be worth more points than Manaea right?

I have a good closer in Diaz, but the only other pitcher that might get me some saves is Ottivino.

Does the Taylor signing lower the bids on Manaea.

Does it make more sense for me to pass on him and drop some cash on Taylor?

My starting pitching is:

Charlie Morton
Carlos Rodon
Adam Wainwright
Logan Webb
Huascar Ynoa

You have two 40-year old pitchers, a guy who gets hurt every year, and a guy on an innings limit....manaea all the way. Closers come and go.

[Ken]

You have two 40-year old pitchers, a guy who gets hurt every year, and a guy on an innings limit....manaea all the way. Closers come and go.

Man, I wrote up the same post earlier and didn't hit send.

Two >37 year old guys whose arm could fall off, 1 guy who we thought his arm did fall off.

I swear I had that typed out.



And I completely agree with your conclusion. Manaea and it isn't particularly close. Gregg is 100% going to need a guy like Manaea at some point, if not multiple.