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Some that stood out to me. While some of these were accomplished last year, injuries or inconsistencies make them solid bets IMO:
HRs
Too High
Duvall 33.5 - everything went right for him, but he still hit .228. Never topped 33 in any other year.
Seager 26.5 - never topped this number. Can't stay healthy.
Suarez 34.5 - hit 31 last year while hitting .198, but had tenure with Cincy. Seattle will pull the plug early if he's hitting under the Mendoza line.
Renfroe 31.5 - probably will be around this number, but also is prone to extended slumps
Gallo 38.5 - has hit .194 over the last 2 seasons. Can still hit this number, but would need to improve the BA
Olson 39.5 - has never hit >39
Sano 32.5 - only topped this is 1 of 7 seasons. Is injury prone.
Acuna 36.5 - obviously, if healthy this is a slam dunk. But could miss 20+ games.
SPerez 34.5 - had 48 last year, but never topped 27 in any other season of his 10-year career
YAlvarez 39.5 - 7 higher than last season. Vegas loves Yordan this year.
O'Neill 35.5 - hit 34 in his breakout year. Iffy.
Buxton 30.5 - career high was 19 last year. Obviously Vegas is banking on him being healthy, but he can't seem to.
Happ 27.5 - career high 25 last year. This number seems generous.
Wisdom 28.5 - Could easily find himself on the bench or in the minors.
Trout 37.5 - could crush this if healthy. Big if.
Too Low
Soto 35.5 - career high is 34, but is durable and the huge spike is coming
Semien 32.5 - rarely misses any games. Had 45 and 33 his last two full seasons.
Muncy 32.5 - 35, 35 & 36 his last 3 full seasons. Vegas must think he's not 100%.
Hits
ARosario 163.5 -hit .282 last season and still missed this number by 9.
JP Crawford 152.5 - beat this total by 17 last year, but hit a career high .273 and missed only 2 games.
Arraez 155.5 - not sure he's a full-timer. If he is, he hits this easily with his batting skills
YAlvarez 158.5 - 149 hits last season, with a .277 BA in 537 ABs. Vegas is banking on a .285ish season.
RBIs
Too High
Duvall 110.5
Seager 91.5 - career high of 87
Walsh 104.5 - had 98 last season in his breakout year. Vegas is banking on a better year.
Suarez 98.5 - whaaaaaat
Bell 100.5 - had a good season (.261, 27 HRs). Still only had 88 RBIs, and the offense stinks.
Muncy 99.5 -with Freddie in town, Muncy may not be in RBI positions as often
Alonso 112.5 - this seems very generous
Too Low
Riley 96.5 - 11 under last year, and he's a rising superstar
Baez 81.5 - 87, 85 & 111 his last 3 full seasons. Vegas must still think Detroit stinks.
Wins
Too High
Means 10.5 - Baltimore may not win more than 60 games, is Means really winning 11?
Verlander 13.5 - easy if healthy, but.....
Stroman 12.5 - career high of 13 in 2017. And the Cubs stink.
Corbin 11.5 - whaaaaat
Too Low
Urias 13.5 - won 20 last season
Strikeouts
Cease 205.5 - 226 last year in 166 IP
Rogers 170.5 - 157 in 133 IP. If he gets 150 IP, which is very likely, this number easily comes down
Rodon 187.5 - Vegas banking on 150+ IP, which he's done just once (2016)
HRs
Too High
Duvall 33.5 - everything went right for him, but he still hit .228. Never topped 33 in any other year.
Seager 26.5 - never topped this number. Can't stay healthy.
Suarez 34.5 - hit 31 last year while hitting .198, but had tenure with Cincy. Seattle will pull the plug early if he's hitting under the Mendoza line.
Renfroe 31.5 - probably will be around this number, but also is prone to extended slumps
Gallo 38.5 - has hit .194 over the last 2 seasons. Can still hit this number, but would need to improve the BA
Olson 39.5 - has never hit >39
Sano 32.5 - only topped this is 1 of 7 seasons. Is injury prone.
Acuna 36.5 - obviously, if healthy this is a slam dunk. But could miss 20+ games.
SPerez 34.5 - had 48 last year, but never topped 27 in any other season of his 10-year career
YAlvarez 39.5 - 7 higher than last season. Vegas loves Yordan this year.
O'Neill 35.5 - hit 34 in his breakout year. Iffy.
Buxton 30.5 - career high was 19 last year. Obviously Vegas is banking on him being healthy, but he can't seem to.
Happ 27.5 - career high 25 last year. This number seems generous.
Wisdom 28.5 - Could easily find himself on the bench or in the minors.
Trout 37.5 - could crush this if healthy. Big if.
Too Low
Soto 35.5 - career high is 34, but is durable and the huge spike is coming
Semien 32.5 - rarely misses any games. Had 45 and 33 his last two full seasons.
Muncy 32.5 - 35, 35 & 36 his last 3 full seasons. Vegas must think he's not 100%.
Hits
ARosario 163.5 -hit .282 last season and still missed this number by 9.
JP Crawford 152.5 - beat this total by 17 last year, but hit a career high .273 and missed only 2 games.
Arraez 155.5 - not sure he's a full-timer. If he is, he hits this easily with his batting skills
YAlvarez 158.5 - 149 hits last season, with a .277 BA in 537 ABs. Vegas is banking on a .285ish season.
RBIs
Too High
Duvall 110.5
Seager 91.5 - career high of 87
Walsh 104.5 - had 98 last season in his breakout year. Vegas is banking on a better year.
Suarez 98.5 - whaaaaaat
Bell 100.5 - had a good season (.261, 27 HRs). Still only had 88 RBIs, and the offense stinks.
Muncy 99.5 -with Freddie in town, Muncy may not be in RBI positions as often
Alonso 112.5 - this seems very generous
Too Low
Riley 96.5 - 11 under last year, and he's a rising superstar
Baez 81.5 - 87, 85 & 111 his last 3 full seasons. Vegas must still think Detroit stinks.
Wins
Too High
Means 10.5 - Baltimore may not win more than 60 games, is Means really winning 11?
Verlander 13.5 - easy if healthy, but.....
Stroman 12.5 - career high of 13 in 2017. And the Cubs stink.
Corbin 11.5 - whaaaaat
Too Low
Urias 13.5 - won 20 last season
Strikeouts
Cease 205.5 - 226 last year in 166 IP
Rogers 170.5 - 157 in 133 IP. If he gets 150 IP, which is very likely, this number easily comes down
Rodon 187.5 - Vegas banking on 150+ IP, which he's done just once (2016)
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