2K22 Noah Syndergaard

[Gregg]

It would seem that the high risk high reward Noah Syndergaard might come at the lowest price we have had in years and maybe going forward as well. Certainly less risk in mixed leagues than only.

What would you be willing to pay at auction this year?

[Ken]

Certainly less risk in mixed leagues than only.

huh? he has the same risk regardless of what type league you are in, and his relative risk is scaled identically to the relative risk of other players

[Bene Futuis]

I have him at $7 in a mixed league and probably will not keep him. His ADP right now is around 220, so you're definitely right that his value has bottomed out. I wouldn't pay very much for him right now, honestly. We're coming up on four years since he's been elite and last year he'd lost something like 4 mph off of his fastball, which at one point was the best in baseball.

[Sour Masher]

huh? he has the same risk regardless of what type league you are in, and his relative risk is scaled identically to the relative risk of other players

I think Gregg is talking about how replacement level is higher in a mixed league so if you use a late pick or spend a buck or two on Thor, if he sucks or is hurt, you can cut bait and pick someone else up that won't be much different from the late rounder you could have picked instead of Thor. In an only league, his price will be more and replacement level is lower, so deciding to invest in Thor is a more dangerous move.

Depending on ST reports, I'd take a flyer on him in a mixed league on the cheap, but I would not pay up what it would probably take in an Only league.

[Ken]

I have him at $7 in a mixed league and probably will not keep him. His ADP right now is around 220, so you're definitely right that his value has bottomed out. I wouldn't pay very much for him right now, honestly. We're coming up on four years since he's been elite and last year he'd lost something like 4 mph off of his fastball, which at one point was the best in baseball.

26 pitches from last year doesn't really tell us much. Should know more in spring training.

[Todd Zola]

26 pitches from last year don't really tell us much. Should know more in spring training.

The fact none of them were anything other than fastballs and changeups is concerning. After a May setback, the Mets told Syndergaard not to throw sliders or curves.

I can't imagine the Angels would sign him without checking on whether he can throw his breaking pitches, but it adds a layer of uncertainty until we see Syndergaard on the mound in the spring.

[Gregg]

huh? he has the same risk regardless of what type league you are in, and his relative risk is scaled identically to the relative risk of other players

He is on a one year contract. If he is lights out mixed leagues get to keep him. If he signs in the NL AL only leagues lose him.

I also agree with Sour that his price/risk is higher in only leagues.

[Ken]

I think Gregg is talking about how replacement level is higher in a mixed league so if you use a late pick or spend a buck or two on Thor, if he sucks or is hurt, you can cut bait and pick someone else up that won't be much different from the late rounder you could have picked instead of Thor. In an only league, his price will be more and replacement level is lower, so deciding to invest in Thor is a more dangerous move.

Depending on ST reports, I'd take a flyer on him in a mixed league on the cheap, but I would not pay up what it would probably take in an Only league.

Ah, if so probably the wrong term, you are referring to the depth of the league not the universe. An 8 team Only league is roughly equivalent to a 16 team mixed in depth.

[Ken]

If he signs in the NL AL only leagues lose him.

Careful, many leagues don't work like that.

[The Feral Slasher]

you are referring to the depth of the league not the universe.

I think we have some ufo/alien thread to talk about the depth of the universe