Are we done (ish) with Mike Trout?

[Gregg]

Obviously Mike Trout has value, but at what cost.

He is on the trading block in our AL only 5x5 OBP instead of ave. 12 team keeper $260 budget. His contract is $53C. This means play him out or give an extension as $5 per year. He has lost massive money for his current owner. He is being offered for a reserve draft pick upgrade (13 picks in the reserve round).

I do not think anyone will make that trade. Trout will be back in the auction. FanGraphs has him at $34.2 I find myself thinking that seems low. So what would I pay? Not $40. Don't think I would pay $39. If bidding stalled at $34 would I say $35? I think I would. $36 maybe. $37 gives me the sweats and I am not sure. $38 nope. With this thinking he will maintain his active streak of never having been on my roster.

I would think Spring Training might have a lot to say about his value going into auctions and drafts this year. He is still only 30 years old so age is not much of a factor.

So how much would you pay for Mike Trout this coming year?

If you own him will you keep him and at what cost?

If you could pick him basically free but cost you $53 if kept. Or maybe to hold him to see what happens in Spring Training would you do it?

[revo]

He's the Christian McCaffrey of MLB, the fantasy baseball version of russian roulette. One year he will throw in his final complete, healthy season, and some momo will get lucky, but that won't be me. Or you, I presume.

[Gregg]

He's the Christian McCaffrey of MLB, the fantasy baseball version of russian roulette. One year he will throw in his final complete, healthy season, and some momo will get lucky, but that won't be me. Or you, I presume.

Not unless he goes "too cheap."

I am curious if any of our RJ brethren are still in and at what cost.

[DMT]

He still goes for obscene amounts in my 12-team mixed league, last year $76. There is no chance he'll be on my team, as I think he'll still go for >$50.

[Bene Futuis]

Hmm, maybe I'll be targeting Trout this year if no one else is!

What has he earned over the last several years? Relatedly, what's the best site to find that info?

[revo]

Not unless he goes "too cheap."

I am curious if any of our RJ brethren are still in and at what cost.

He's not going to be cheap, that's the issue. Not yet at least. When healthy, he still performs at a 1st rd level.

[Gregg]

He's not going to be cheap, that's the issue. Not yet at least. When healthy, he still performs at a 1st rd level.

I think "too cheap" for me is $35. That would be Trout cheap.

[Teenwolf]

I think the name carries too much inflation to be a good auction value.

As the industry has largely shifted to stars-and-scrubs as a popular strategy, the competition for stars often boosts prices beyond the inflation rate, often reaching 100% inflation. I prefer to wait out the top players, almost never going over $40, as I feel the odds of a $30ish guy breaking out and hitting the higher tier are approximately equal to a $50+ stud falling off. Also, the highest priced guys are tougher to work with in leagues with strict salary caps.

For all those reasons, I'm out at auction.

[Bene Futuis]

I mean, we would all buy the hell out of Mike Trout at $35 in most any league, wouldn't we? I would. But yeah, not at $50+ anymore.

[Ken]

For those willing to pay for Trout, I'm curious what you'd pay for Yordan Alvarez or Giancarlo Stanton.

This number surprised me. Games played since the start of the 2017 season (5 years, not a small sample):

Trout -- 477
Stanton -- 497

[Bene Futuis]

For those willing to pay for Trout, I'm curious what you'd pay for Yordan Alvarez.

I would pay Josh Fields, no more.

[Bene Futuis]

Fangraphs auction dealio thingamabob has Trout at $25 and Alvarez just three spots below him at $24 for a 12 team mixed. Maybe, depending on inflation, $35 could be too rich for ol' Fish Boy. I'd still do it.

[Ken]

For those willing to pay for Trout, I'm curious what you'd pay for Yordan Alvarez or Giancarlo Stanton.

This number surprised me. Games played since the start of the 2017 season (5 years, not a small sample):

Trout -- 477
Stanton -- 497

I edited my previous post too late, I should have posted a followup. I think the games played data point was surprising.

[Ken]

Fangraphs auction dealio thingamabob has Trout at $25 and Alvarez just three spots below him at $24 for a 12 team mixed. Maybe, depending on inflation, $35 could be too rich for ol' Fish Boy. I'd still do it.

Would you pay $33 for Alvarez? It seems like you may be applying inflation, and if so that's likely a fair value in keeper leagues- so I'd agree with you. If not, and you are referring to what you'd pay in a redraft or startup, what stats are you paying for that weren't accounted for in the $25?

[Bene Futuis]

I edited my previous post too late, I should have posted a followup. I think the games played data point was surprising.

Yeah, last year killed him games-wise. Clearly you're paying for the insane upside, which admittedly is less than it once was in his stolen base heyday. Still, 2019 Trout at $35 would be a-ok by me (or '17, '16, '15 etc.)

Edit: I'd pay more for Trout than for Yordan because I think Trout has a higher upside and both have significant injury concerns, although Yordan's knee problems seem to be chronic. To be fair, I haven't researched that very much at all.