2k22 Tyler Mahle

[Bene Futuis]

Moderately heralded prospect finally turned in a great year last year. Upward trajectory? Bound for regression? Something else?

[chancellor]

Moderately heralded prospect finally turned in a great year last year. Upward trajectory? Bound for regression? Something else?

He had a solid short season in 2020, too. I like him for a series of reasons:

- He ditched the curve that wasn't working at all and has worked hard to make his split a good pitch.
- He's had solid upticks in velocity; he now sits in the 94-95 MPH area
- His slider improved and he's throwing it now about 30% of the time
- His spin rate has gone up three years running, and if you look at the pre-Spider Tack spin rate numbers and compare them to the post-Spider Tack spin rate numbers, they look very close. So if he was using sticky stuff, not using it didn't appear to impact him a lot, though his spin rate and ERA and K rate did worsen a bit post-Spider Tack.

I do think between his park and stuff, he's not going to jump another tier, but he's a solid 3.60 - 3.80 ERA, mid 1.2s WHIP, 10 K/9 guy.

[Sour Masher]

He is basically a good Coors pitcher, like Marquez. His home/road splits are brutal. If you are in a league set up where you can afford to just start him on the road, he is gold. But overall, I think Chance's line is probably his ceiling.

[Bene Futuis]

I think Chance's line is probably his ceiling.

That line is essentially what he did last year with a little regression in K/9 and WHIP, no?

[Sour Masher]

That line is essentially what he did last year with a little regression in K/9 and WHIP, no?

Ceiling may be overstating, but yeah, I think last year is the best was can expect from Mahle unless he can figure out his home starts. Maybe he does--the park is bad for him, but it shouldn't be that bad. Some of it must be mental. His era at home was 5.63 with a 1.48 whip. Gave up bombs, but was just worse overall by a lot at home. Really, really good on the road. I don't see him getting dealt, so to me the only path he has to getting better is figuring out how to pitch in his home park.

[Ken]

He is basically a good Coors pitcher, like Marquez. His home/road splits are brutal. If you are in a league set up where you can afford to just start him on the road, he is gold. But overall, I think Chance's line is probably his ceiling.

His 2020 and 2021 numbers were better than his ceiling?


** Edited -- sorry I see now you amended your ceiling statement. I think his true ceiling is much higher than this, but we throw around that word way too much in the fantasy industry.

[Sour Masher]

His 2020 and 2021 numbers were better than his ceiling?


** Edited -- sorry I see now you amended your ceiling statement. I think his true ceiling is much higher than this, but we throw around that word way too much in the fantasy industry.

I meant his ceiling next year, but yeah, I misused the term. What I meant was that I would not bid him up expecting any better than that line in 2022, unless I could find some reason to believe he would be better at home. His career splits are not much better. He does have a higher K rate at home, but overall, the results at home have held him back. It is the barrier to him taking things to the next level, which is why I think of him as a talented Coors pitcher. For his career, his home era is over 5 and his whip is 1.4.

[Gregg]

I meant his ceiling next year, but yeah, I misused the term. What I meant was that I would not bid him up expecting any better than that line in 2022, unless I could find some reason to believe he would be better at home. His career splits are not much better. He does have a higher K rate at home, but overall, the results at home have held him back. It is the barrier to him taking things to the next level, which is why I think of him as a talented Coors pitcher.

You mean like if he had a sore arm and a good cutter...oh wait wrong thread...just kidding.

[Sour Masher]

I feel like I am coming across like I don't like him. I do. I just wish I could understand the extent of his home/road splits, and because i play in weekly leagues, not daily leagues, Mahle is much more frustrating. In a different league, talented pitchers like him and Marquez are much more interesting (although, Mahle's home/road splits are actually more extreme than Marquez and many other Rockies pitchers), as long as you are able to bench them for at least some home starts.

[Sour Masher]

You mean like if he had a sore arm and a good cutter...oh wait wrong thread...just kidding.

If Gallen's arm is still sore, this deep into the offseason, I don't want to waste a roster spot on him either!

[ThatRogue]

Rumor is that the Mets are trying to trade a position player to acquire him. But what position players do the Reds need, aside from SS? The Mets already traded their major league ready SS to acquire Lindor.

[harmon]

Rumor is that the Mets are trying to trade a position player to acquire him. But what position players do the Reds need, aside from SS? The Mets already traded their major league ready SS to acquire Lindor.

Reds might be feeling it's time to move on from Eugenio and may be interested in JD Davis.

[mgwiz22]

The Reds also have Moustakas. Unless some other salary, like Moustakas or Suarez goes to the Mets, this really makes little sense.

[Sour Masher]

Reds might be feeling it's time to move on from Eugenio and may be interested in JD Davis.

Why would they trade a really good pitcher for JD Davis? It would take a lot more, I assume.

[harmon]

Why would they trade a really good pitcher for JD Davis? It would take a lot more, I assume.

Not saying straight up, but I could see where JD could be of interest to them.