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Thread: 2k22 Tyler Mahle

  1. #1
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    2k22 Tyler Mahle

    Moderately heralded prospect finally turned in a great year last year. Upward trajectory? Bound for regression? Something else?
    I think the tragedy is that we have a Congress with a Senate that has a minority of misguided senators who will use the filibuster to keep the majority of people from even voting. Dr. Martin Luther King Jr., 1963

  2. #2
    Quote Originally Posted by Bene Futuis View Post
    Moderately heralded prospect finally turned in a great year last year. Upward trajectory? Bound for regression? Something else?
    He had a solid short season in 2020, too. I like him for a series of reasons:

    - He ditched the curve that wasn't working at all and has worked hard to make his split a good pitch.
    - He's had solid upticks in velocity; he now sits in the 94-95 MPH area
    - His slider improved and he's throwing it now about 30% of the time
    - His spin rate has gone up three years running, and if you look at the pre-Spider Tack spin rate numbers and compare them to the post-Spider Tack spin rate numbers, they look very close. So if he was using sticky stuff, not using it didn't appear to impact him a lot, though his spin rate and ERA and K rate did worsen a bit post-Spider Tack.

    I do think between his park and stuff, he's not going to jump another tier, but he's a solid 3.60 - 3.80 ERA, mid 1.2s WHIP, 10 K/9 guy.
    I'm just here for the baseball.

  3. #3
    All Star Sour Masher's Avatar
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    He is basically a good Coors pitcher, like Marquez. His home/road splits are brutal. If you are in a league set up where you can afford to just start him on the road, he is gold. But overall, I think Chance's line is probably his ceiling.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Sour Masher View Post
    I think Chance's line is probably his ceiling.
    That line is essentially what he did last year with a little regression in K/9 and WHIP, no?
    I think the tragedy is that we have a Congress with a Senate that has a minority of misguided senators who will use the filibuster to keep the majority of people from even voting. Dr. Martin Luther King Jr., 1963

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    All Star Sour Masher's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bene Futuis View Post
    That line is essentially what he did last year with a little regression in K/9 and WHIP, no?
    Ceiling may be overstating, but yeah, I think last year is the best was can expect from Mahle unless he can figure out his home starts. Maybe he does--the park is bad for him, but it shouldn't be that bad. Some of it must be mental. His era at home was 5.63 with a 1.48 whip. Gave up bombs, but was just worse overall by a lot at home. Really, really good on the road. I don't see him getting dealt, so to me the only path he has to getting better is figuring out how to pitch in his home park.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Sour Masher View Post
    He is basically a good Coors pitcher, like Marquez. His home/road splits are brutal. If you are in a league set up where you can afford to just start him on the road, he is gold. But overall, I think Chance's line is probably his ceiling.
    His 2020 and 2021 numbers were better than his ceiling?


    ** Edited -- sorry I see now you amended your ceiling statement. I think his true ceiling is much higher than this, but we throw around that word way too much in the fantasy industry.

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    All Star Sour Masher's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ken View Post
    His 2020 and 2021 numbers were better than his ceiling?


    ** Edited -- sorry I see now you amended your ceiling statement. I think his true ceiling is much higher than this, but we throw around that word way too much in the fantasy industry.
    I meant his ceiling next year, but yeah, I misused the term. What I meant was that I would not bid him up expecting any better than that line in 2022, unless I could find some reason to believe he would be better at home. His career splits are not much better. He does have a higher K rate at home, but overall, the results at home have held him back. It is the barrier to him taking things to the next level, which is why I think of him as a talented Coors pitcher. For his career, his home era is over 5 and his whip is 1.4.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Sour Masher View Post
    I meant his ceiling next year, but yeah, I misused the term. What I meant was that I would not bid him up expecting any better than that line in 2022, unless I could find some reason to believe he would be better at home. His career splits are not much better. He does have a higher K rate at home, but overall, the results at home have held him back. It is the barrier to him taking things to the next level, which is why I think of him as a talented Coors pitcher.
    You mean like if he had a sore arm and a good cutter...oh wait wrong thread...just kidding.

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    All Star Sour Masher's Avatar
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    I feel like I am coming across like I don't like him. I do. I just wish I could understand the extent of his home/road splits, and because i play in weekly leagues, not daily leagues, Mahle is much more frustrating. In a different league, talented pitchers like him and Marquez are much more interesting (although, Mahle's home/road splits are actually more extreme than Marquez and many other Rockies pitchers), as long as you are able to bench them for at least some home starts.

  10. #10
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    Quote Originally Posted by Gregg View Post
    You mean like if he had a sore arm and a good cutter...oh wait wrong thread...just kidding.
    If Gallen's arm is still sore, this deep into the offseason, I don't want to waste a roster spot on him either!

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