2k22 Zac Gallen

[Bene Futuis]

Well, he's a tough decision for me (leaning against, maybe) as a keep at $5 in a 12 team mixed. I'd keep him at that price in an only league without a second thought, honestly.

[Sour Masher]

Responding to Gregg and Chance: I hear ya both, but to me the fact that they emphasized there was no tear PLUS the fact that they let him come back and while he was not as effective, the arm held up, I think it is reasonable to be cautiously optimistic that the time bomb won't go off soon. I recall Daisuke actually having an identified partial tear and pitching for years on it at a high level. And I think Sale had a fore arm strain early on and coupled with his mechanics, people waits for many years for his ligament to snap before it actually did. I do agree he is riskier than many, but how do you both feel about the fact that he came back and pitched much of the year after the strain and the ligament held up? Doesn't the show he could stay healthy this year too?

Given the possibility he stays healthy, his proven talent, and the addition of Brent Strom, I'd have a hard time taking more than 40 pitchers ahead of him in a mixed league. My risk aversion would be higher in an Only league, but I'd still take the risk after the first 20 or so arms.

[Sour Masher]

Maybe a comparison is useful here to see if you folks are just averse to any level of arm risk, or think Gallen represents more risk than I do.

Who would you take first or spend more money on--Gallen or Kershaw? Kershaw is one of my all-time favorite pitchers, but I'd take Gallen at this point. I think he is less risky. Or rather, the risk is different. Gallen has a better shot at 30 starts than Kershaw, but a better shot at missing 30 starts too. Still, if I had to pick one to start more games, I'd pick Gallen.

[Gregg]

Maybe a comparison is useful here to see if you folks are just averse to any level of arm risk, or think Gallen represents more risk than I do.

Who would you take first or spend more money on--Gallen or Kershaw? Kershaw is one of my alltime favorite pitchers, but I'd take Gallen at this point. I think he is less risky. Or rather, the risk is different. Gallen has a better shot at 30 starts than Kershaw, but a better shot at missing 30 starts too.

It is funny that you mention Kershaw. I was actually comparing them. I am getting leery of Kershaw, yet I would easily take him over Gallen for this coming year. He is in the last year of his $29 contract in our NL only league. If he was back in this year I would probably go $22ish.

[Bene Futuis]

I would also take Kershaw pretty easily over Gallen, even though I am apparently higher on Gallen than many others. However, that comes with a huge caveat, as Kershaw missed the postseason with injuries and I haven't heard much since then about how he's doing.

[Sour Masher]

It is funny that you mention Kershaw. I was actually comparing them. I am getting leery of Kershaw, yet I would easily take him over Gallen for this coming year. He is in the last year of his $29 contract in our NL only league. If he was back in this year I would probably go $22ish.

Yeah, it is just so surprising to me that you'd go to $22 for Kershaw but not even roster Gallen when, to me, he represents just as much risk as Gallen does at this point. At least until we learn more about how he is doing. I mean, I can see ranking Kersahw ahead of Gallen for sure, but they are close to me. Certainly not $22 apart.

[Gregg]

I would also take Kershaw pretty easily over Gallen, even though I am apparently higher on Gallen than many others. However, that comes with a huge caveat, as Kershaw missed the postseason with injuries and I haven't heard much since then about how he's doing.

Great point!

What do the Dodgers know that we don't. If they wouldn't go one year $18M, maybe I should pump the brakes a bit.

[Bene Futuis]

Great point!

What do the Dodgers know that we don't. If they wouldn't go one year $18M, maybe I should pump the brakes a bit.

Pretty sure they didn't extend the QO out of respect for Kershaw more than anything else. I wouldn't read much into that, honestly.

[Sour Masher]

From what I have seen from early rankings, many places have them close together and some have Gallen ahead of Kershaw. Here are a couple of rankings that break that way:

Our old friend Sporer likes Gallen, ranking him at 31: https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/paul-s...2-sp-rankings/

The Fantrax consensus has Gallen higher as well:
https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/paul-s...2-sp-rankings/

ETA: Sporer really likes Sale too, ranking him 10th.

[Gregg]

Yeah, it is just so surprising to me that you'd go to $22 for Kershaw but not even roster Gallen when, to me, he represents just as much risk as Gallen does at this point. At least until we learn more about how he is doing. I mean, I can see ranking Kersahw ahead of Gallen for sure, but they are close to me. Certainly not $22 apart.

I am going to be very angry if you all talk me into Gallen and he needs TJ.

[Sour Masher]

I am going to be very angry if you all talk me into Gallen and he needs TJ.

Ha, that is not my intent. If you had said you were not touching Kershaw either, it would have all made sense to me--it would mean you want to avoid as much pitching risk as possible this year. I could get that. But not wanting to spend anything on Gallen and saying you'd go $22 on Kershaw, I didn't get. Both are risky.

[Ken]

I am going to be very sad at you if you all talk me into Gallen and he needs TJ.

Fixed that for you.

[Gregg]

Fixed that for you.

This is awesome! Thank you.

[revo]

Most of you are shockingly low on Gallen. He is risky, but the idea that he isn't worth a roster spot, even in a shallow mixed league, is crazy to me. He could end up winning people leagues if he is taken in the late rounds or dollar days.

To be fair, his ADP is 135, which means you'd have to take him in the 8th-9th rd of a 15-16tm mixed league -- that's not chump change. So I think they're looking at risk/reward, and I agree, if you need to use an 8th rd pick on Gallen to land him, he's probably not worth the risk (both injury risk and ineffectiveness risk).

Other SPs going around his ADP seem like much better values.

If he were 3-4 rounds cheaper, that would be another story.

[Sour Masher]

To be fair, his ADP is 135, which means you'd have to take him in the 8th-9th rd of a 15-16tm mixed league -- that's not chump change. So I think they're looking at risk/reward, and I agree, if you need to use an 8th rd pick on Gallen to land him, he's probably not worth the risk (both injury risk and ineffectiveness risk).

Other SPs going around his ADP seem like much better values.

If he were 3-4 rounds cheaper, that would be another story.

Yeah, I have to agree with that, at least for a couple of names around him. But I think it is a missed opportunity for significant upside to completely write him off the ol draftt/auction list.