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Thread: Week 18 Thread

  1. #41
    Administrator Ken's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mithrandir View Post
    Logic? Let's see:

    Choice 1: kneel down and tie means 100% in playoffs. Or

    Choice 2: Attempt FG and 99.99999998% chance to make playoffs (blocked kick run back for TD although very unlikely still a possibility)

    So yeah, I'm dumb taking the 100% option.

    Sigh.
    Why are you just blatantly ignoring information? We're not just talking about "making the playoffs". Are you so "dumb" that you think the season is over and all teams just give up now and flip coins and choose a winner? Do you think once teams mathmatically make the playoffs they just stop playing the regular season (the Packers could have had a nice long vacation)?

    The football season is not JUST about making the playoffs. There is seeding involved which, based on the evidence, many teams actually care about. And rightfully so, they aren't just trying to make the playoffs, the goal is moving forward in the playoffs, and making the superbowl, and winning the superbowl.

    This isn't hard.

  2. #42
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    For demonstration purposes, lets use the Bill Parcell's method of evaluating teams and go with "You are what your record says you are". The Chiefs won 70.6% of their games, and the Bengals won 58.8% of their games. That's probably a fair indicator of the relative odds of beating each team, a 20% difference in odds (70.6/58.8 = 1.2).

    The Raiders have the same record as the Bengals (although due to that kick), so lets give them a 50% chance of beating the Bengals and a 40% chance of beating the Chiefs (too high in my opinion, Vegas has it closer to 20%, but lets go with it).

    And lets put the "value" in going to two playoff games as 2x the "value" of going to 1. This is subjective, but just counting the games seems pretty fair.

    Lets put the odds of Carlson making the kick at 93%, his rate for the 2021 season.

    So you have two statistical valuation tables

    Scenario (1) Kneel down.

    100% of the time you play the Chiefs which is worth 1.4 playoff games.

    Scenario (2) kick a fieldgoal.

    Based on your odds posted above .00000002% of the time you don't make the playoffs - that's worth 0 playoff games.
    In the other 99.99999998% of the time, you MISS your FG 7% of the time and tie, so you face the Chiefs still, providing 1.4 playoff games * 99.99999998% * 7% = a net 0.09799999998 playoff games
    And in the other 93% of that scenario you make the FG providing 1.5 playoff games (since you play the Bengals instead) --> 1.5 playoff games * 99.99999998% * 93% = 1.39499999972

    In total, Scenario (2) is worth 1.39499999972 + 0.09799999998 = 1.4929999997

    So given that 1.4929999997 is more than 1.4 playoff games, statistics would say to kick the FG.



    If you have a different set of numbers feel free to provide them and we'll plug them in.

  3. #43
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ken View Post
    For demonstration purposes, lets use the Bill Parcell's method of evaluating teams and go with "You are what your record says you are". The Chiefs won 70.6% of their games, and the Bengals won 58.8% of their games. That's probably a fair indicator of the relative odds of beating each team, a 20% difference in odds (70.6/58.8 = 1.2).

    The Raiders have the same record as the Bengals (although due to that kick), so lets give them a 50% chance of beating the Bengals and a 40% chance of beating the Chiefs (too high in my opinion, Vegas has it closer to 20%, but lets go with it).

    And lets put the "value" in going to two playoff games as 2x the "value" of going to 1. This is subjective, but just counting the games seems pretty fair.

    Lets put the odds of Carlson making the kick at 93%, his rate for the 2021 season.

    So you have two statistical valuation tables

    Scenario (1) Kneel down.

    100% of the time you play the Chiefs which is worth 1.4 playoff games.

    Scenario (2) kick a fieldgoal.

    Based on your odds posted above .00000002% of the time you don't make the playoffs - that's worth 0 playoff games.
    In the other 99.99999998% of the time, you MISS your FG 7% of the time and tie, so you face the Chiefs still, providing 1.4 playoff games * 99.99999998% * 7% = a net 0.09799999998 playoff games
    And in the other 93% of that scenario you make the FG providing 1.5 playoff games (since you play the Bengals instead) --> 1.5 playoff games * 99.99999998% * 93% = 1.39499999972

    In total, Scenario (2) is worth 1.39499999972 + 0.09799999998 = 1.4929999997

    So given that 1.4929999997 is more than 1.4 playoff games, statistics would say to kick the FG.



    If you have a different set of numbers feel free to provide them and we'll plug them in.
    Or you could just read my post #40 where I answered your (Mith) questions Cliff Note Style fixed.

  4. #44
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    Quote Originally Posted by Pauly View Post
    Im not going to beat a dead hose anymore but the argument isnt a fallacy. Better to be there than not 😀
    You likely misunderstood, I was noting that your last post was literally what is known as Anecdotal fallacy. Making a choice because of an experience or anecdote rather than the actual statistical data. It wasn't my subjective valuation of your argument, I'm noting the fact that it is the method that you were using, and it is a known fallacy in argument.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Argument_from_anecdote

  5. #45
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    Quote Originally Posted by Gregg View Post
    Or you could just read my post #40 where I answered your (Mith) questions Cliff Note Style fixed.
    I read it, but mine had more details

    We've already reminded him that the FG changed the opponent and he didn't seem to understand that it mattered (since he omitted that from later replies). So I was showing my work.

  6. #46
    All Star Mithrandir's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ken View Post
    Why are you just blatantly ignoring information? We're not just talking about "making the playoffs". Are you so "dumb" that you think the season is over and all teams just give up now and flip coins and choose a winner? Do you think once teams mathmatically make the playoffs they just stop playing the regular season (the Packers could have had a nice long vacation)?

    The football season is not JUST about making the playoffs. There is seeding involved which, based on the evidence, many teams actually care about. And rightfully so, they aren't just trying to make the playoffs, the goal is moving forward in the playoffs, and making the superbowl, and winning the superbowl.

    This isn't hard.
    It seems hard for you to comprehend.


    It's about making the playoffs. End of story. Sure teams might think ahead, but every team thinks that the can beat every other team. Stop being so damn smart and just face the fact that 100% is the best option.

    Make the playoffs FIRST!

    We know you're so intelligent, but stop playing this ridiculous game of statistics. Kneel and you're in 100%. END OF STORY. Anything else is a risk.
    "I lingered round them, under that benign sky: watched the moths fluttering among the heath and harebells, listened to the soft wind breathing through the grass, and wondered how any one could ever imagine unquiet slumbers for the sleepers in that quiet earth."

  7. #47
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ken View Post
    You likely misunderstood, I was noting that your last post was literally what is known as Anecdotal fallacy. Making a choice because of an experience or anecdote rather than the actual statistical data. It wasn't my subjective valuation of your argument, I'm noting the fact that it is the method that you were using, and it is a known fallacy in argument.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Argument_from_anecdote
    The actual statistical data shows that if the Raiders knelt and tied they make the playoffs. END OF STORY> It really is that simple. For someone so obsessed with statistics, you just can't get that 100% is the best option?????
    "I lingered round them, under that benign sky: watched the moths fluttering among the heath and harebells, listened to the soft wind breathing through the grass, and wondered how any one could ever imagine unquiet slumbers for the sleepers in that quiet earth."

  8. #48
    All Star Mithrandir's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ken View Post
    I read it, but mine had more details

    We've already reminded him that the FG changed the opponent and he didn't seem to understand that it mattered (since he omitted that from later replies). So I was showing my work.
    Do opponents matter to the teams or is it the fans or the bettors.? Playing the Bengals of Chiefs is immaterial IF YOU DON'T MAKE THE PLAYOFFS. And the bengals look just as dangerous an opponent as the Chiefs.
    "I lingered round them, under that benign sky: watched the moths fluttering among the heath and harebells, listened to the soft wind breathing through the grass, and wondered how any one could ever imagine unquiet slumbers for the sleepers in that quiet earth."

  9. #49
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mithrandir View Post
    It seems hard for you to comprehend.


    It's about making the playoffs. End of story. Sure teams might think ahead, but every team thinks that the can beat every other team. Stop being so damn smart and just face the fact that 100% is the best option.

    Make the playoffs FIRST!

    We know you're so intelligent, but stop playing this ridiculous game of statistics. Kneel and you're in 100%. END OF STORY. Anything else is a risk.
    You are kidding right?

    It's not all about making the playoffs. If it was, then a lot of teams would have stopped playing weeks ago. We know 100% that what you posted above is incorrect. You cannot possibly be this ignorant of the reality of NFL football. Intentionally obtuse is the only reasonable explanation.

    There were entire shows on the last weekend of the season dedicated to playoff seedings and the different scenarios and what each team was trying to do. This is not news. If you have your head out of the sand paying attention to NFL football for even a second over the last 10+ years of football you'd already know this.

  10. #50
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mithrandir View Post
    Do opponents matter to the teams or is it the fans or the bettors.? Playing the Bengals of Chiefs is immaterial IF YOU DON'T MAKE THE PLAYOFFS. And the bengals look just as dangerous an opponent as the Chiefs.
    It does matter to the teams. They want the best/easiest way to the Super Bowl. Evidenced by trying to earn the bye week.

    In hindsight the Raiders made the best call possible.

    I am just curious do you have a favorite team that has a rival? As a fan how important is it to you to beat them?

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