ADP: Buy, Sell, Hold

[chancellor]

This is great stuff, thanks Jason!

[Moonlight J]

I've been playing with XLOOKUP in Office 365 and its greatly accelerated my ability to put these tables into action.

I was able to download 2021 ADP from FantasyPros: https://www.fantasypros.com/mlb/adp/overall.php and then pull the ADP report from NFBC. Put each one on its own tab, and then do the formula to generate the desired column on a single page.

I just sent in my annual Value from Scrap Heap piece at Rotowire and used the overall report to generate some potential targets that have seen their market value severely decline since this time last year.

[Moonlight J]

I see that some have moved up.

Varsho makes sense. He was decent but only had 300 PA.
Rodrigues is interesting. In his case a strong 2nd half seems the reasonable explanation.
Vaughn is a name I have not considered in some time and now I will keep an eye on him. If Steamer projections play out, he's worth more than his current ADP.

Rodriguez getting out of Fenway & the ALE and into the AL Central is a big plus. Vaughn's current market value is a tremendous discount given where he was last winter. That isn't going to last long as we get closer to peak draft season.

[heyelander]

I've been playing with XLOOKUP in Office 365 and its greatly accelerated my ability to put these tables into action.

I was able to download 2021 ADP from FantasyPros: https://www.fantasypros.com/mlb/adp/overall.php and then pull the ADP report from NFBC. Put each one on its own tab, and then do the formula to generate the desired column on a single page.

I just sent in my annual Value from Scrap Heap piece at Rotowire and used the overall report to generate some potential targets that have seen their market value severely decline since this time last year.

xlookup is so much nicer than vlookup!

[onejayhawk]

Rodriguez getting out of Fenway & the ALE and into the AL Central is a big plus. Vaughn's current market value is a tremendous discount given where he was last winter. That isn't going to last long as we get closer to peak draft season.

I assumed as much but my draft starts the first week of February, so ... Still, it's going to be interesting watching these early rankings move as we get closer to show time.

Apropos of nothing, I always liked that the American League East is an alcoholic beverage.
Here's to you Bhob. Still remembering you with the Red Sox logo as an icon.

[chancellor]

Rodriguez getting out of Fenway & the ALE and into the AL Central is a big plus. Vaughn's current market value is a tremendous discount given where he was last winter. That isn't going to last long as we get closer to peak draft season.

I'd love to get Vaughn in an auction since he'll probably come well below value. But in a redraft, I'm not so sure. It was nice to see his contact rate improve and K rate go down in the second half, but so did the power.

[Moonlight J]

top 15 pitchers by ADP movement in NFBC Draft Champions leagues to date:

PITCHER	ADP CHANGE	2022 ADP	2021 ADP	2022 MIN PICK	2022 MAX PICK
Ranger Suarez	592	158	750	97	196
Justin Verlander	579	113	692	21	206
Shane Baz	575	126	701	104	150
Alek Manoah	560	84	644	56	105
Camilo Doval	552	143	696	90	288
Joe Barlow	532	199	731	133	290
Shane McClanahan	498	103	601	82	122
Logan Webb	486	54	541	37	99
Joe Ryan	480	190	670	151	241
Dylan Floro	479	208	686	159	314
Aaron Ashby	473	256	729	168	326
Bailey Ober	451	271	723	202	395
Ken Giles	451	235	685	163	305
Huascar Ynoa	449	238	687	155	300
David Bednar	443	181	624	127	305

[Gregg]

top 15 pitchers by ADP movement in NFBC Draft Champions leagues to date:

PITCHER	ADP CHANGE	2022 ADP	2021 ADP	2022 MIN PICK	2022 MAX PICK
Ranger Suarez	592	158	750	97	196
Justin Verlander	579	113	692	21	206
Shane Baz	575	126	701	104	150
Alek Manoah	560	84	644	56	105
Camilo Doval	552	143	696	90	288
Joe Barlow	532	199	731	133	290
Shane McClanahan	498	103	601	82	122
Logan Webb	486	54	541	37	99
Joe Ryan	480	190	670	151	241
Dylan Floro	479	208	686	159	314
Aaron Ashby	473	256	729	168	326
Bailey Ober	451	271	723	202	395
Ken Giles	451	235	685	163	305
Huascar Ynoa	449	238	687	155	300
David Bednar	443	181	624	127	305

I currently have Verlander, Webb, and Ynoa as keepers in my only leagues. Kind of excited about that.

[Moonlight J]

I posted that table to show a number of guys that were discovered very late in draft and holds that are now becoming key parts of rotations and bullpens. Verlander and Giles are the only guys on that list that made a jump to to recovery from injuries, and I still want no part of Giles myself given he's only 16 months from TJ and his recovery has been stunted by this lockout.

[Gregg]

I posted that table to show a number of guys that were discovered very late in draft and holds that are now becoming key parts of rotations and bullpens. Verlander and Giles are the only guys on that list that made a jump to to recovery from injuries, and I still want no part of Giles myself given he's only 16 months from TJ and his recovery has been stunted by this lockout.

If you could have 3 guys off that list, who would yours be?

[Moonlight J]

If you could have 3 guys off that list, who would yours be?

Joe Ryan (drafted him in so many places last winter)
Huascar Ynoa
Aaron Ashby

They're not the best of the 3 talent wise, but I like them the best at their current market price

[onejayhawk]

These are the P that fall from #250 to #350. I did not remove the RP since a lot of these guys will qualify for both.

Which do you like as strict upside plays?

252.62 Jon Gray TEX
254.04 Steven Matz STL
254.38 Aaron Ashby MLW
255.69 Andrew Kittredge TB
256.19 Bailey Ober MIN
265.81 Drew Rasmussen TB
266.31 German Marquez COL
267.12 Aaron Civale CLE
269.58 Cal Quantrill CLE
279.96 Jake McGee SF
280.19 Kyle Hendricks CHC
282.38 Casey Mize DET
283.00 Josiah Gray WAS
283.42 Rowan Wick CHC
290.65 Andrew Heaney LAD
291.69 Tylor Megill NYM
297.31 Jesus Luzardo MIA
301.27 Luis Patino TB
301.65 Devin Williams MLW
304.77 Paul Sewald SEA
309.58 Jameson Taillon NYY
310.00 Michael Fulmer DET
310.04 Carlos Carrasco NYM
312.35 Ian Kennedy PHI
314.04 Marco Gonzales SEA
314.35 Tony Gonsolin LAD
316.23 Eric Lauer MLW
320.19 Cristian Javier HOU
324.50 Trevor Bauer LAD
328.50 Zach Plesac CLE
329.42 Elieser Hernandez MIA
339.62 Tanner Rainey WAS
340.12 James Kaprielian OAK
340.19 Stephen Strasburg WAS
341.62 Adbert Alzolay CHC
345.65 Yusei Kikuchi SEA
346.85 Sixto Sanchez MIA
348.73 Alex Reyes STL

[ThatRogue]

I don't understand why he (Ohtani) can't close games when he's getting his work in in-between starts.

Yeah…between pitching as an upper level SP and hitting at an elite level, that guy’s just not doing enough to help his team. What a slacker.

[whalewang]

These are the P that fall from #250 to #350. I did not remove the RP since a lot of these guys will qualify for both.

Which do you like as strict upside plays?

The question should be who don't we like from this list. This is a tier that I'm overbuying in.

[harmon]

The question should be who don't we like from this list. This is a tier that I'm overbuying in.

Bauer