The new COVID thread

[heyelander]

My wife just tested positive this morning. She'd been feeling crappy the last week and had a cough (which is unusual for her), but had three negative tests (two at home and one PCR) all last week. She was still feeling kinda bad today so took an at-home and tested positive this morning. She actually feels a little better than a few days ago, so that's good. Doesn't seem to be too bad, all things considered.

glad she is doing better already

[heyelander]

Apparently local schools will be opening in person today/tomorrow. From what I've read it may become difficult to continue in person with the expected amount of cases impacting teachers, students, bus drivers, families, etc. Hard to fathom that some schools won't require masks and have inadequate ventilation at this point. I guess the plan is to deal with it until we can't. If you consider that a plan.

thoughts and prayers.

[chancellor]

Sure seems to me that he was talking specifically about COVID and omicron, not tertiary issues regarding food security and the like. Obviously the safest place for our children is not in a school building when it comes to COVID transmission. There are certainly other issues that play into the concept of "safety", like mental health concerns, food security, and domestic violence, though.

the last sentence is my point - you can't claim "safety" without taking those critical factors into account when it comes to the assessment of whether to keep kids in school or not. And, I believe the new mayor and his staff did that assessment before making the public statement he did.

[Ken]

the last sentence is my point - you can't claim "safety" without taking those critical factors into account when it comes to the assessment of whether to keep kids in school or not. And, I believe the new mayor and his staff did that assessment before making the public statement he did.

Seems a little disingenuous. You can absolutely claim safety as it relates to the topic at hand, COVID. This is a semantics argument.

If we have a long discussion about COVID and I say that the people in my family have been pretty cautious, I'm referring to safety as it relates to COVID. I'm not saying my kid is cautious when using scissors. To suggest otherwise is ridiculous IMO.

Your argument is akin to saying that schools in New Orleans can never say they are safe because of the hurricane risk.

Risk topics can absolutely be compartmentalized and are often discussed in that fashion. You can claim "safety" as it relates to a particular topic. And it's clear that many interpreted this statement in that way. Maybe the mayor meant it in a more broad sense - if so he definitely should have clarified it. At minimum he did a terrible job of communicating.

[Bene Futuis]

Florida Surgeon General, standing behind a lectern that says "EARLY TREATMENT SAVES LIVES" tells the poor rubes of Florida not to get tested. I guess this may go in the "do you want to live in a regressive shithole" thread, but Florida is just awful. State-operated testing sites have been closed since May and video is emerging of hours' long waits to obtain a test. Just a complete dereliction of duty down there. That same surgeon general just waltzed into a hospital with no mask. The worst people.

[GwynnInTheHall]

Florida Surgeon General, standing behind a lectern that says "EARLY TREATMENT SAVES LIVES" tells the poor rubes of Florida not to get tested. I guess this may go in the "do you want to live in a regressive shithole" thread, but Florida is just awful. State-operated testing sites have been closed since May and video is emerging of hours' long waits to obtain a test. Just a complete dereliction of duty down there. That same surgeon general just waltzed into a hospital with no mask. The worst people.

Meh, most of them will be underwater in 10 years--Prep for the refugees...

[rhd]

Johns Hopkins' site lists the current 7-day moving average positivity rate at 32.72%. Never seen it nearly that high thruout the entire pandemic. For perspective, in order to indicate that the pandemic may be ending this rate needs to be below 5.0% for something like 14 days straight (I read this a while ago - I couldnt find any figures on this in a brief search).

[Sour Masher]

Johns Hopkins' site lists the current 7-day moving average positivity rate at 32.72%. Never seen it nearly that high thruout the entire pandemic. For perspective, in order to indicate that the pandemic may be ending this rate needs to be below 5.0% for something like 14 days straight (I read this a while ago - I couldnt find any figures on this in a brief search).

The spike is unprecedented, but a lot of sources are saying that the upside of it is the peak may have already been reached, or will be soon, and then it should get better soon. It wasn't possible to flatten the Omicron curve much at all, but thankfully it has been relatively mild and hopefully the numbers fall as rapidly as the rose.


"Two to three weeks seems to be what it takes for it to peak and then to rapidly decline," said Dr. Amesh Adalja with Johns Hopkins University, "not because it's infecting everyone but because it's infecting those people who are most susceptible to get infected … and then everybody else starts to change their behavior and then it collapses."

"One model from Columbia University suggests the peak could come next week."

[The Feral Slasher]

The spike is unprecedented, but a lot of sources are saying that the upside of it is the peak may have already been reached, or will be soon, and then it should get better soon. It wasn't possible to flatten the Omicron curve much at all, but thankfully it has been relatively mild and hopefully the numbers fall as rapidly as the rose.


"Two to three weeks seems to be what it takes for it to peak and then to rapidly decline," said Dr. Amesh Adalja with Johns Hopkins University, "not because it's infecting everyone but because it's infecting those people who are most susceptible to get infected … and then everybody else starts to change their behavior and then it collapses."

"One model from Columbia University suggests the peak could come next week."

I've seen some stuff indicating London likely peaked...somewhat hard to trust case counts with test availability and holiday impacts to reporting. It will peak at different times in different locations. Hopefully NY to DC area peaks soon. Anyway, it does appear to be killing a much lower of percent infected people to this point, and less ICU admissions...so lots of hopeful news in spite of the high case counts. I still can't help but be concerned by the high number of cases, hopefully we don't overwhelm the health care system and get thru this better than previous waves.

[Sour Masher]

And already a new variant has emerged: https://amp.dw.com/en/new-corona-var...nce/a-60329823

"As long as the vaccination campaign isn't advanced globally, new variants will always develop somewhere. Sometimes they are more harmless, sometimes more dangerous. It remains to be seen what this new variant will be. "

[johnnya24]

I've seen some stuff indicating London likely peaked...somewhat hard to trust case counts with test availability and holiday impacts to reporting. It will peak at different times in different locations. Hopefully NY to DC area peaks soon. Anyway, it does appear to be killing a much lower of percent infected people to this point, and less ICU admissions...so lots of hopeful news in spite of the high case counts. I still can't help but be concerned by the high number of cases, hopefully we don't overwhelm the health care system and get thru this better than previous waves.

The biggest problem we are having with the Omicron wave is logistics, and the fact that we didn't prepare properly for it (surprise surprise). We have also run out of rapid test kits, which are now prioritized for healthcare. Our hospitals and care homes are suffering from severe staffing issues, but severe illness and death is low - and in fact we don't know how low precisely, because there are so many incidental Covid cases in our hospitals: an admission with Covid is regarded as a "Covid admission" even if was incidental; the same with oxygen administration and ICU placement; a death with Covid is regarded as a "Covid Death" even if Covid was incidental.

With regard the statistics (lies, damned lies etc):

- Infection is high, but in reality the infection rate is much much higher because so many people have it without even realizing - thanks to the success of the vaccine program + gradual natural immunity.

- Severe illness / death is low, but in reality is lower (much lower?) because the statistics determining the rate of severity are muddled in with already existing conditions, admissions, treatments and deaths.

The high number of Omicron cases is clearly a good thing. Omicron is bouncing off our population (as it did previously in South Africa), and leaving behind even more natural immunity in its wake.

We need to be leaning into Omicron, not running away.

[johnnya24]

The SAF data is noteworthey. Severity low or lower?

https://pasteboard.co/yGSOonJXzSsc.png

Can't embed images for some reason.

[chancellor]

And already a new variant has emerged: https://amp.dw.com/en/new-corona-var...nce/a-60329823

"As long as the vaccination campaign isn't advanced globally, new variants will always develop somewhere. Sometimes they are more harmless, sometimes more dangerous. It remains to be seen what this new variant will be. "

The French sure as heck won't settle for some mere Greek symbol to name a variant from their fine country. I suspect a name like Pomme du Delta.

[Sour Masher]

The French sure as heck won't settle for some mere Greek symbol to name a variant from their fine country. I suspect a name like Pomme du Delta.

My bet is they just name it a fleur-de-lis symbol.

[Moonlight J]

CPS canceled classes today as 72% of the CTU voted not to return to the buildings. CPS does have a very robust remote learning system for those with the resources to access it.