The new COVID thread

[nullnor]

I'm an expert. I just watched an animal husbandry marathon on Sling TV.

Stand back everyone, this mare has covid toe! I am going to need some toenail clippers, smooth udder cream and a tuna on rye.

[The Feral Slasher]

We both know that any kind of prior infection to a virus provides a degree of protection. The more your immune system is familiarized with a virus, the easier it will fight it off.

South Africa is the prime example. Vaccine uptake in SAF prior to Omicron was poor - average (lot's of vaccine skepticism). But they had 3 previous waves of Covid that caused widespread natural immunity - and the Omicron wave just bounced off SAF.

The resistance we saw in SAF to Omicron, despite its incredible infectiousness, came primarily from natural infection immunity. We have now seen that replicated in countries with high vaccine uptake and lower natural immunity.

Basically both vaccines and natural infection are providing similar degrees of protection - and although i'm not an expert, both vaccines and natural infection have their own particular ways of tutoring you immune system. They aren't exclusive.

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Like I mentioned previously in this thread, there is a partisan mindset that has developed over the course of this pandemic (vrs the anti-science lobby) that is now a part of the problem.

Prior to Omicron:

Wear masks in public please vrs "aint no-one gonna make me do anything I don't want to"
Some restrictions to help protect our vulnerable vrs "you aint takin' away mah freedumb"
Vaccines will provide protection against the virus vrs "what virus? I don't know anyone who died from covid"
Any restrictions are temporary vrs "it's a global illuminati conspiracy to take all the power!!!!!!"
etc. etc.

It was annoying for all of us dealing with this imbecility. Problem is, after Omicron, many of those arguments we used are redundant. Once Omicron displaces Delta:

We shouldn't be wearing masks to prevent spread
We shouldn't have restrictions to stop infection, except in certain medical circumstances
Vaccine isn't our only solution / protection. With Omicron we now have a viable natural route to acquiring herd-immunity that will be faster and perhaps as (more?) effective than vaccines.
We therefore don't need restrictions in the same way as prior waves.

However, because of pride, stubbornness, pride, an overly conservative mindset, pride, a lack of courageousness, pride, conditional partisan herd behavior etc. etc. - most of us don't seem to be able to extricate ourselves from this partisan conditionality.

AND - we could miss this window of opportunity for fast and effective herd-immunity if another wave comes along and we haven't allowed Omicron the freedom it needs (a) to infect the dumbasses and (b) give additional protection to the vaccinated.

I understand that Omicron will provide some level of immunity. It is impossible to define how much and for long it will last. I also know that based on age, poor health, unvaccinated, etc Omicron will kill some people and send many to the hospital. So not being able to define the benefit that some people would receive makes me reluctant to recommend actions that will have very real and immediate costs. There are also costs to the restrictions/shut downs on normal activities such as school, restaurant, entertainment, etc. I don't think there is an obvious answer as to what is the right thing to do in terms of closures/school shut downs, etc..for areas that are experiencing extreme Omicron spread. I do think we need a functioning healthcare system and Omicron has the potential to create lots of issues there.

EDIT: added link below. Discusses the potential benefits and uncertainty related to Omicron

https://www.seattletimes.com/nation-world/omicron-could-boost-immunity-some-experts-say-but-dont-bet-on-it/

[nullnor]

I was looking at these graphs and the anti-vaccine side is trying to say vaccine efficacy is negative but I don't see it. what it looks like to me is since there are more vaccinated ppl they will represent more cases of testing positive. we learned this earlier from Israel since they had a higher uptake. same thing with <18 representing a larger chare of positive since more are unvaccinated. but in the last graph you can see that the unvaccinated represent the greater proportion of deaths. thus, it is a pandemic of the unvaccinated. even though I dislike that term.

[Kevin Seitzer]

COIVD hospitalizations are near their peak from last January. Deaths have not risen that much yet, but we know from previous waves that the rise in deaths lags the rise in hospitalizations by a couple weeks.

[johnnya24]

I understand that Omicron will provide some level of immunity. It is impossible to define how much and for long it will last. I also know that based on age, poor health, unvaccinated, etc Omicron will kill some people and send many to the hospital. So not being able to define the benefit that some people would receive makes me reluctant to recommend actions that will have very real and immediate costs. There are also costs to the restrictions/shut downs on normal activities such as school, restaurant, entertainment, etc. I don't think there is an obvious answer as to what is the right thing to do in terms of closures/school shut downs, etc..for areas that are experiencing extreme Omicron spread. I do think we need a functioning healthcare system and Omicron has the potential to create lots of issues there.

EDIT: added link below. Discusses the potential benefits and uncertainty related to Omicron

https://www.seattletimes.com/nation-...ont-bet-on-it/

(not trying to be argumentative, but) you seem to be trapped in a negative mindset. Most vaccine and infection immunity is beneficial against further infection. Should the question not be: what evidence do you have that this will be any different?

Realistically the only thing we can do is manage the scale of work absences during the peak, and keep the wheels turning. That is what is causing most of the pressure, not admissions as a consequence of the virus itself. Everything is happening around the world as predicted - mirroring South Africa ... sadly also the lackadaisical response of our governing agencies.

It would be unfortunate if countries/regions yet to go through this Omicron phase of the pandemic (hopefully the final phase) don't learn from the UK, Netherlands etc and other early waves. We have only recently reduced isolation time to 5 days ... this could have been done 3 weeks ago.

[johnnya24]

Are you talking to me or someone else?

No, I was referring to everyone. i'm just jaded by this Pandemic fetishization - it's gotten out of hand.

People just seem unable to shift their positions these days - they become so invested in vitriolic partisan interactions - that ends up mattering more than the issue at hand. The issue then gets twisted to suit the partisan interaction. So the pro-science lobby are very content to ignore the scientific data, and I have my (anti-science) brother-in-law sending me quasi-scientific links about new super-strains that will kill everyone.

For 2 years I've had to listen to this guy babbling about the fake pandemic, his freedom bollocks, Government conspiracies, power grabs by elites - now he's just like you guys ... any sign that the pandemic might end, with normality returning, throws all his arguments in the trash. So he's desperately looking for any shred of evidence to keep his position alive.

Just annoyed, ignore me.

[johnnya24]

Well, you didn't answer to the children. Kind of an important part of the equation.

Kids under 5 should all be forcibly given Covid, only the strong survive. They don't have a choice to get a vaccine, so what the fuck? You condemn them to a dice-roll?

I disagree with your approach.

Really? If you have to lie and deceive to support your argument, that says a lot. Where did I say kids under 5 should be forcibly given Covid? Where did I say anyone should forcibly be given Covid? Who/what are you appealing to here?

We have a virus we cannot stop (only manage). We will all catch it at some point. Do you have some other information that I haven't seen?

[The Feral Slasher]

(not trying to be argumentative, but) you seem to be trapped in a negative mindset. Most vaccine and infection immunity is beneficial against further infection. Should the question not be: what evidence do you have that this will be any different?

Realistically the only thing we can do is manage the scale of work absences during the peak, and keep the wheels turning. That is what is causing most of the pressure, not admissions as a consequence of the virus itself. Everything is happening around the world as predicted - mirroring South Africa ... sadly also the lackadaisical response of our governing agencies.

It would be unfortunate if countries/regions yet to go through this Omicron phase of the pandemic (hopefully the final phase) don't learn from the UK, Netherlands etc and other early waves. We have only recently reduced isolation time to 5 days ... this could have been done 3 weeks ago.

1) I'm not disputing it will be beneficial. I've just noted that we have no idea how beneficial and how to compare that to cost/risks of death, cognitive impairment, long covid,etc

2) The US is certainly not mirroring South Africa or the UK. We have set records for hospitilizations and deaths have increased greatly, now over 2000 per day. Certainly it is not as bad as if we had 1 million cases of delta every day, but deaths and hospitilizations are more of an issue here, likely due to lower percentage of people with vaccinations and boosters, and possibly also due to worse health of the population overall.

3) Recommendations to try to catch Omicron and increase immunity end up with more significant downsides in the US for the reasons I noted above. Regardless, I am fairly confident in saying it would be easy to catch if anyone in the US wants to do so. We really have very few shutdowns or restrictions of significance. No doctor or public health official is likely to recommend trying to get Omicron for obvious reasons, some that you have noted. But if an individual wants to get it, probably won't be much of a problem. And that will provide some level of immunity in the future, and also have some near term consequences. I don't think it is an obvious conclusion that trying to get Omicron is the right decision for most people, but maybe that's just my negative mindset

[Teenwolf]

Canadian hospitals have been overwhelmed once again. When this happens, many urgent surgeries are put off and people die as a result. I've been double-masking lately because we need time to mass produce the anti-viral pills that claim to have 89% efficacy. I'm quite optimistic that we can transition to a point where new medications, vaccines, etc, can make Covid enough of a minor threat that we can go back to life as it was before. I have quite a positive mindset that there will be a shift to normalcy. But the pattern has been that Covid spreads much more in winter, especially in colder climates as people gather more indoors. So now is not the time to fuck around without a mask, hoping to catch the virus. Now is the time to shelter in place, waiting for the next phase when the hospitalizations subside, and new highly effective treatments are (likely) stockpiled by the richest countries to bring back some sense of normalcy.

[Teenwolf]

I should say, I'm still taking a few calculated risks myself. I have tickets to a seated show for late Feb, which requires a government issued "vaccine passport" to enter, and everyone needs to be masked at all times. It will likely be postponed, and I'm okay with that. I also booked a trip to Puerta Vallarta, Mexico in Feb with my wife, which we booked a few days before news of Omicron started to surface. I'm still planning to go, getting passports sorted now. But my wife recently had Covid, which I may have had, and we'll both be getting our 3rd vax before the trip. So those are mitigating factors for us. Annoying covid tests required before we can return, but its a small sacrifice for the week in Mexico.

[GwynnInTheHall]

No, I was referring to everyone. i'm just jaded by this Pandemic fetishization - it's gotten out of hand.

People just seem unable to shift their positions these days - they become so invested in vitriolic partisan interactions - that ends up mattering more than the issue at hand. The issue then gets twisted to suit the partisan interaction. So the pro-science lobby are very content to ignore the scientific data, and I have my (anti-science) brother-in-law sending me quasi-scientific links about new super-strains that will kill everyone.

For 2 years I've had to listen to this guy babbling about the fake pandemic, his freedom bollocks, Government conspiracies, power grabs by elites - now he's just like you guys ... any sign that the pandemic might end, with normality returning, throws all his arguments in the trash. So he's desperately looking for any shred of evidence to keep his position alive.

Just annoyed, ignore me.

For me, it's not partisan--I'm on the side that saves the most lives--No matter the financial cost or inconvenience. I understand it's close to impossible to have it handled in the manner I believe is best--humans just are not built to give up money/stuff or be inconvenienced for too long or in some cases at all. The fact the Pandemic wasn't handled correctly worldwide from the beginning has put mankind in this position and we really ARE in this together.

I'm hoping this slows and ends soon as you do, but I'm not ready to just give up and say let's go herd immunity, nor do I think I ever will be as to me. that process will cost lives that might be saved through stringent (inconvenient-costly) mitigation policies and measures.

I prefer the way New Zealand, Australia and even China have handled it over how the US and UK have gone about it.

BUT I don't live there so I can only handle what I can handle and that's stay home when I can, mask when I leave, get vaxxed and boostered when possible and encourage people to do the same.


No need to ignore you, just clarifying your post and we're all weary of this shit, so don't feel like you're alone--It's just some of us have given up the fight yet. I believe that's the pushback you're feeling.

Stay Safe and Be Well.

[Moonlight J]

My wife is pulling 12's and overtime at the hospital because of the volume of folks out sick. 20 people out today due to variety of illnesses, so she (normally on cardiovascular cases only) is doing a bit of everything. She's only part-time, but they're so desparate for healthy staff here at the hospital because the unvaxxed are coming in for reactive treatments rather than proactive ones plus the sick staff. It sucks

[Kevin Seitzer]

1) I'm not disputing it will be beneficial. I've just noted that we have no idea how beneficial and how to compare that to cost/risks of death, cognitive impairment, long covid,etc

2) The US is certainly not mirroring South Africa or the UK. We have set records for hospitilizations and deaths have increased greatly, now over 2000 per day. Certainly it is not as bad as if we had 1 million cases of delta every day, but deaths and hospitilizations are more of an issue here, likely due to lower percentage of people with vaccinations and boosters, and possibly also due to worse health of the population overall.

3) Recommendations to try to catch Omicron and increase immunity end up with more significant downsides in the US for the reasons I noted above. Regardless, I am fairly confident in saying it would be easy to catch if anyone in the US wants to do so. We really have very few shutdowns or restrictions of significance. No doctor or public health official is likely to recommend trying to get Omicron for obvious reasons, some that you have noted. But if an individual wants to get it, probably won't be much of a problem. And that will provide some level of immunity in the future, and also have some near term consequences. I don't think it is an obvious conclusion that trying to get Omicron is the right decision for most people, but maybe that's just my negative mindset

I admittedly have not followed every nuance of Johnny's argument on here, but trying to get Omicron on purpose seems really stupid. I understand the idea of getting your three shots and then not being paralyzed by fear in going about life, with the understanding that getting Omicron after three shots is likely way better than getting Delta with no shots. It seems like Johnny is saying that he thinks the immunity conferred from getting the disease is good for the rest of time against future variants of COVID, but the data seems to show otherwise. The vaccines confer stronger and more lasting immunity than getting the disease itself. So why would one want to choose to get both the disease and weaker immunity against getting it again? If I have to get a booster shot for COVID every 6 or 12 months for the rest of my life, it wouldn't be my favorite thing, but I'd rather do that than get COVID while unprotected by a vaccine.

[Kevin Seitzer]

There is some indication that COVID hospitalizations may have peaked in the US toward the end of last week. We probably won't get a clear picture of that until the end of this week as we come out of the holiday, but I sure hope that's the case. That probably means that deaths are going to come close to the previous surge peaks but probably (hopefully) not surpass them. But I'm pretty sure we'll cross a million COVID deaths here by the time this wave is finished.

[Bene Futuis]

Supreme Court Justice Neil Gorsuch refuses to wear a mask even though he sits next to Justice Sotomayor, who is high risk due to diabetes.