The new COVID thread

[umjewman]

Simple. Bene can vent all he wants. Absolutely, there's a segment of the right-wing that opposes the COVID vaccines and detests mask mandates and they're using all the Alinsky tools they've learned the past twenty years or so to fight the Biden administration. But the numbers don't lie. Older adults vote much more conservative than younger adults, yet are vaccinated in far higher numbers. African Americans vote overwhelmingly Democratic, yet are by far the lowest vaccinated racial group. And that's CDC data.

We can speculate on the reasons all we want. Media personalities and stations that are right-of-center have a notably older skew to their viewers. Media that is left-of-center has a mostly younger skew to their viewers, except for CNN, which has bled so many viewers that it's tough to tell what's left. Social media has taken an aggressive anti anti-vax stance, with Facebook and Twitter in particular censoring anti-vax postings. Again, younger adults get more of their news from social media than older adults.

So, unless, little white guys like Tucker Carlson suddenly have Darth Sidious-like mind control powers, the odds of the right-of-center media significantly influencing the most liberal age and racial demographics - who, by the way, watch them the least - is exceedingly slim to me. I mean, c'mon, seriously, do you think Tucker Carlson is influencing Nikki Minaj?

So, I'll throw my highly cynical POV out there. If I were the governor of a deep red state with a significant African American population, but I've had little success getting votes from that population, what position could I take that both a decent to high number of my base likes AND would appeal to the African American population?

I'll just say that answer is as obvious as a poke in the arm.

You can drill down deeper into these numbers though. Yes, older people are getting more vaccinated and yes older people tend to skew more conservative by nature. Older people are also more likely to get seriously ill and die from Covid, of course, so logic would dictate that they would be the first to get it (and indeed they were prioritized). But the portion of older people who are not getting vaccinated strongly skews conservative. From what I saw, Alabama, Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, North Carolina, Tennessee, Georgia, Idaho, Missouri, West Virginia, and Wyoming are the states where 20% or more of those 65 and older are not vaccinated. All of those states went for Trump in the 2020 election....even Georgia which actually went for Trump but was STOLEN BY DOMINION BASED ON A FORESNIC AUDIT BY A PILLOW SALESMAN. Reasonably certain what channel those TVs are tuned to in those states.

[chancellor]

Love ya, Chance, but you are really cherry picking when you claim numbers don't lie here. Revo is right, there are three anti-vaxxer camps, and you are right, that two of those camps, AAs and young people skew left. However, there is another number you are ignoring here. All of the same polling data very clearly and significantly indicates that Dems are far more likely to be vaccinated and get vaccinated than Repubs. It is not close.

Oh, I pretty much agree with revo on the three groups. Thought I'd made that clear by saying "Absolutely, there's a segment of the right-wing that opposes the COVID vaccines and detests mask mandates and they're using all the Alinsky tools they've learned the past twenty years or so to fight the Biden administration." Umjewman is likely correct that many of the 50+ age group that are not vaccinated will be strongly conservative. It's a significant part of that population.

However, where I differ is that, somehow, only right-wingers are the sole anti-vaxxers out there. The age demographics just don't work. As age goes up, vaccination rate clearly goes up, and at 65+, very significantly. Younger adults strongly lean liberal.

And of course there's politics in play. Did you not read that I said "If I were the governor of a deep red state with a significant African American population, but I've had little success getting votes from that population, what position could I take that both a decent to high number of my base likes AND would appeal to the African American population?" I underlined it this time for emphasis.

[umjewman]

Umjewman is likely correct

This is pretty much a good default position for anyone to have.

[chancellor]

You were doing fine up until here. It is absurd to think that governors of deep red states give a damn about what could appeal to African Americans. The same governors who are doing their best to get voter restriction laws passed that would impact them the most, right?

That's pure foolishness. Every politician of every stripe cares about what appeals to every voter group in their state or district, and has polling to carve out just about any demographic you can think about on just about every major topic that is out there. Every politician of every stripe yearns for the opportunity to find topics that will keep their base happy while potentially carving out votes from demographics that typically oppose them.

So, yes, absolutely, every red state governor gives a damn about what appeals to African Americans.

[Kevin Seitzer]

While this is a popular media-driven illusion, the data driven facts sure don't support the point, overall. Sure, there's a fair number of loudmouths on the right that oppose vaccines and mask mandates. But overall? The oldest age groups - 65+ are both more conservative than the norm AND about 84% vaccinated. 50-64 is over 70% vaccinated. Young adults - who lean more liberal than the norm - are much less vaccinated. The age 25-39 age group is only about 54% vaccinated, age 18-24 notably less.

The African-American population, overwhelmingly Democratic voters, have the lowest vaccination rate by racial demographic. And it's not really close.

Data source, in case you're wondering, is the CDC itself: https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tra...raphics-trends

You keep bringing this up, and you keep drawing an incorrect conclusion. The numbers show that Republicans and Trump voters are far more vaccine hesitant than Democrats. The fact that some groups that lean Democratic are also more vaccine hesitant does not prove the point that you keep claiming it proves. It's highly likely that among each of those Democratic-leaning groups, the Republicans and Trump voters in that group are far more vaccine hesitant than the Democratic voters. Studies that have controlled for all those factors find that being Trump voter is the single most statistically significant indicator of vaccine hesitancy, and that the factors you mention don't actually come into play in a statistically meaningful way. I gave the link to that study last time you brought this up.

[chancellor]

You keep bringing this up, and you keep drawing an incorrect conclusion. The numbers show that Republicans and Trump voters are far more vaccine hesitant than Democrats. The fact that some groups that lean Democratic are also more vaccine hesitant does not prove the point that you keep claiming it proves.

And, naturally, I disagree. Here's the point I differed with Teenwolf on:

That's it. It's more about a fear of change than anything else, and Conservative mindset fearing change forces them to dig in instead of confronting reality.

Yet, voter preference relative to age is inversely proportional to vaccine rate. The 18-29 age group is only 46% fully vaccinated, but yet, based on 2018 figures by Pew, are 27% more Dem/liberal than GOP/conservative (59-32). The 50-64 age group is 71.4% vaccinated, and leans slightly GOP/conservative. I'll grant I may be allowing personal belief to color my view on fear of change - I'm more fearful of change now than when I was in my early 20s, by a wide margin. Perhaps the age 18-29 age group is more fearful of change than the 50-64 age group, overall. But there's clearly a much more Conservative mindset politically among the age 50-64 group than the age 18-29 group, and yet the age group that's roughly 30% more Dem/liberal is more than 25% less vaccinated.

So, yeah, making the claim that a vastly greater Dem/liberal age group is vastly less vaccinated is due to fear of change and a Conservative mindset isn't something that I'm going to agree with. Or, making the claim that the age group that's least vaccinated and most liberal (by far) is somehow significantly influenced by Tucker Carlson or OAN is pretty, um, interesting.

[heyelander]

This is pretty much a good default position for anyone to have.

i still remember him when he was a boy...

[The Feral Slasher]

And, naturally, I disagree. Here's the point I differed with Teenwolf on:



Yet, voter preference relative to age is inversely proportional to vaccine rate. The 18-29 age group is only 46% fully vaccinated, but yet, based on 2018 figures by Pew, are 27% more Dem/liberal than GOP/conservative (59-32). The 50-64 age group is 71.4% vaccinated, and leans slightly GOP/conservative. I'll grant I may be allowing personal belief to color my view on fear of change - I'm more fearful of change now than when I was in my early 20s, by a wide margin. Perhaps the age 18-29 age group is more fearful of change than the 50-64 age group, overall. But there's clearly a much more Conservative mindset politically among the age 50-64 group than the age 18-29 group, and yet the age group that's roughly 30% more Dem/liberal is more than 25% less vaccinated.

So, yeah, making the claim that a vastly greater Dem/liberal age group is vastly less vaccinated is due to fear of change and a Conservative mindset isn't something that I'm going to agree with. Or, making the claim that the age group that's least vaccinated and most liberal (by far) is somehow significantly influenced by Tucker Carlson or OAN is pretty, um, interesting.

I agree with you that fear of change is not a big driver in why people don't get vaccinated. The real reasons are much worse unfortunately

[ironfist]

That's pure foolishness. Every politician of every stripe cares about what appeals to every voter group in their state or district, and has polling to carve out just about any demographic you can think about on just about every major topic that is out there. Every politician of every stripe yearns for the opportunity to find topics that will keep their base happy while potentially carving out votes from demographics that typically oppose them.

So, yes, absolutely, every red state governor gives a damn about what appeals to African Americans.

I disagree. Most politicians will chalk up certain voter blocs as a "lost cause" or whatever. It's why Republican candidates don't bother to campaign in California or New York. I'm sure they'll pay lip service and pretend they want their vote, but I doubt they care much what they think until polls show that they have a real chance to win any of their votes. Maybe I'm just more cynical than you are about this though...

[Gregg]

I have heard that Illinois is a very large Democratic state. The Gov has a mask mandate and yet I see that the vast majority of people are ignoring the mask mandate. Why would this be such an issue.

I do have Repub friends that are anti mask as well as anti vax. This is confusing to me as well.

I have had covid, I have been vaccinated twice I am wearing a mask when out in public. How hard is that?

[Kevin Seitzer]

And, naturally, I disagree. Here's the point I differed with Teenwolf on:



Yet, voter preference relative to age is inversely proportional to vaccine rate. The 18-29 age group is only 46% fully vaccinated, but yet, based on 2018 figures by Pew, are 27% more Dem/liberal than GOP/conservative (59-32). The 50-64 age group is 71.4% vaccinated, and leans slightly GOP/conservative. I'll grant I may be allowing personal belief to color my view on fear of change - I'm more fearful of change now than when I was in my early 20s, by a wide margin. Perhaps the age 18-29 age group is more fearful of change than the 50-64 age group, overall. But there's clearly a much more Conservative mindset politically among the age 50-64 group than the age 18-29 group, and yet the age group that's roughly 30% more Dem/liberal is more than 25% less vaccinated.

So, yeah, making the claim that a vastly greater Dem/liberal age group is vastly less vaccinated is due to fear of change and a Conservative mindset isn't something that I'm going to agree with. Or, making the claim that the age group that's least vaccinated and most liberal (by far) is somehow significantly influenced by Tucker Carlson or OAN is pretty, um, interesting.

I partly misunderstood the point you were making. But I think I still disagree with you?

I mean, the "fear of change" part, I don't know what I think about whether that is what drives conservatives, and maybe that was the main point you were trying to address? But "conservative" does seem to correlate with vaccine hesitancy, at least insofar as a Republican voting history in presidential elections is a good proxy for conservative. Being a Republican voter was the second strongest factor after being a Trump voter for vaccine hesitancy. Clearly, Trump loyalty is the biggest factor, and perhaps that speaks to other things beyond a conservative mindset like susceptibility to conspiracy theories, anti-science skepticism, distrust of authority, racist/xenophobic beliefs, lack of education, and so on. But conservative political beliefs are also a marker for vaccine hesitancy, and you have implied in the past, and I thought you were implying here, that a liberal political mindset (as measured by Democratic voting history) is actually correlated with vaccine hesitancy in the U.S., which is not borne out by the data.

[Kevin Seitzer]

Yet, voter preference relative to age is inversely proportional to vaccine rate. The 18-29 age group is only 46% fully vaccinated, but yet, based on 2018 figures by Pew, are 27% more Dem/liberal than GOP/conservative (59-32). The 50-64 age group is 71.4% vaccinated, and leans slightly GOP/conservative. I'll grant I may be allowing personal belief to color my view on fear of change - I'm more fearful of change now than when I was in my early 20s, by a wide margin. Perhaps the age 18-29 age group is more fearful of change than the 50-64 age group, overall. But there's clearly a much more Conservative mindset politically among the age 50-64 group than the age 18-29 group, and yet the age group that's roughly 30% more Dem/liberal is more than 25% less vaccinated.

So, yeah, making the claim that a vastly greater Dem/liberal age group is vastly less vaccinated is due to fear of change and a Conservative mindset isn't something that I'm going to agree with. Or, making the claim that the age group that's least vaccinated and most liberal (by far) is somehow significantly influenced by Tucker Carlson or OAN is pretty, um, interesting.

One way to get to the numbers you are quoting would be like this, imagining that there are 100 people in each group you reference.

18-29 age group
59 Dem of whom 36 are vaccinated (61%)
32 Repub of whom 10 are vaccinated (31%)

50-64 age group
45 Dem of whom 37.4 are vaccinated (83%)
55 Repub of whom 34 are vaccinated (62%)

That's one way for it to be true that both younger age and Republican voting preference are correlated with vaccine hesitancy, and yet the more Democratic age grouping has a lower vaccination rate.

I'd have to go back and find that study to see the actual numbers, but it has to be something similar to this to produce the effect you're seeing.

[Ken]

One way to get to the numbers you are quoting would be like this, imagining that there are 100 people in each group you reference.

18-29 age group
59 Dem of whom 36 are vaccinated (61%)
32 Repub of whom 10 are vaccinated (31%)

50-64 age group
45 Dem of whom 37.4 are vaccinated (83%)
55 Repub of whom 34 are vaccinated (62%)

That's one way for it to be true that both younger age and Republican voting preference are correlated with vaccine hesitancy, and yet the more Democratic age grouping has a lower vaccination rate.

I'd have to go back and find that study to see the actual numbers, but it has to be something similar to this to produce the effect you're seeing.

This reminds me of those questions you'd get on standardized tests.

If most quibbles are quabbles, and most quabbles are quizzles, then most quibbles are quizzles.

a) True
b) False
c) Not enough information

Lots of people fall for the false equivalence.

[Bene Futuis]

The results of the California recall vote mirror very closely the heat map for COVID cases in California.

[Sour Masher]

Oh, I pretty much agree with revo on the three groups. Thought I'd made that clear by saying "Absolutely, there's a segment of the right-wing that opposes the COVID vaccines and detests mask mandates and they're using all the Alinsky tools they've learned the past twenty years or so to fight the Biden administration." Umjewman is likely correct that many of the 50+ age group that are not vaccinated will be strongly conservative. It's a significant part of that population.

However, where I differ is that, somehow, only right-wingers are the sole anti-vaxxers out there. The age demographics just don't work. As age goes up, vaccination rate clearly goes up, and at 65+, very significantly. Younger adults strongly lean liberal.

And of course there's politics in play. Did you not read that I said "If I were the governor of a deep red state with a significant African American population, but I've had little success getting votes from that population, what position could I take that both a decent to high number of my base likes AND would appeal to the African American population?" I underlined it this time for emphasis.

I wasn't trying to put Revo's claims in direct opposition of yours, but merely giving credit to Revo's desription of something we all seemed to agree on. I understood that you understood that there are Republican antivaxxers. What it seemed you were doing was using the two other vaccine hesitant populations (and based on polling, AAs and young people are more hesitant or indifferent than passionately against) to minimize just how clear the left vs right divide there is on vaccination and mask wearing in this country. You seemed to me to be suggesting that because lots of young people and AAs also don't like COVID vaccines or masks that it wasn't true that vastly more Democrats than Republicans are vaccinated and in favor of vaccination than Republicans. My point was the same KS and Ken were were making with the numbers and false equivalence. There is no denying that more old people are getting vaccinated than young people, and there is no denying that younger people as a whole lean more to the left than older people, but those facts do not, in this case, lead to the conclusion that politics are not a driving factor on this issue. It is, by a wide margin.

Now, if you are saying that right-wingers are not the only anti-vaxxers out there, of course you are right about that. There is no denying that young people as a group and AAs as a group are vaccinated less than other age groups or ethnicities. But the right has made the anti-vax and anti-mask positions a political one, perhaps in reaction to the left touting these things. And they are both by far the largest group of anti-vaxxers and the most outspoken group of anti-vaxxers. That is both dangerous and dumb.

My issue is that I really don't understand why and I'd love know why. I understand why young people are not getting vaccinated. As ironfist said, it is because they think they are not really at a major risk from this disease (and, to an extent, they are right). It makes total sense to me that the population that is at a much higher risk of dying or being severely impacted by COVID are also the most likely to be vaccinated. And if you look at the history of how our government has lied to and betrayed the AA community, it also makes sense to me that they have more hesitancy than other groups to get vaccinated. But I see no reason why vaccination should be a left/right issue. I really don't get it and I'd love for someone to explain it to me. I did see TW's theory on this, and it makes sense to an extent, but I can't buy that it is just or primarily about an aversion to change in this case. Maybe that is part of it, and maybe a general antagonism to absolute faith in scientific consensus is a part of it...I really can't get a good handle on it. But I hope we can all agree what seems patently obvious to me--that more people on the left are pro-vaccine and masking and more people on the right are anti-vaccine and masking.