The new COVID thread

[johnnya24]

I've seen several articles that offer hope that Omicron will be less severe, but again, I don't think that has been established or widely accepted at this point.

https://www.ft.com/content/020534b3-...1-167a5db50786

Ferguson said that the data provided “no strong signal of an intrinsically reduced severity of Omicron versus Delta”. But he added that a “much more definitive judgment” could be made “within a week” as more data emerge on Omicron-related admissions, which are increasing “quite sharply” in London and Manchester.

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-03794-8

Early results suggest a glimmer of hope. Reports from South Africa have consistently noted a lower rate of hospitalization as a result of Omicron infections compared with infections caused by the Delta variant, which is currently responsible for most SARS-CoV-2 infections globally. On 14 December, the South African private health insurer Discovery Health in Johannesburg announced that hospitalization risk has been 29% lower among people infected with Omicron, compared with people infected with a previous variant.

This has fuelled suggestions that Omicron causes milder disease than previous variants. But researchers say it is too early to be sure, and key methodological details of that study have not yet been published. Such details are crucial when interpreting data on disease severity, which can be confounded by factors such as hospital capacity, the age and overall health of those initially infected, and the extent of previous exposure to coronavirus.

But the results from Discovery Health are in keeping with other studies in the country, says Waasila Jassat, a clinician and public-health specialist at the National Institute for Communicable Diseases in Johannesburg. “There are many caveats and disclaimers around early severity data,” she says. “But the picture is very consistent.”

It will take time for a consistent picture to emerge from countries that currently have fewer Omicron infections. On 13 December, Denmark released data showing that hospitalization rates for people infected with Omicron seemed to be on a par with those for people infected with other variants. But this comparison was based on only about 3,400 cases of Omicron infection and 37 hospitalizations.

Similarly, a 16 December report from Imperial College London found no evidence of diminished hospitalizations from Omicron infections compared with Delta in England, although this was again based on relatively few cases. Overall, the numbers are still too small to draw firm conclusions about the severity of disease caused by Omicron, says Troels Lillebęk, an infectious-disease specialist at the University of Copenhagen.

The SA data is overwhelmingly indicative of milder symptoms and a lower hospitalization rate despite many more infections. That's the data we have, and that data is based on massive infections for about 1 month. If we get overwhelmed in the UK, it will be because of our ping / isolation protocols could (will) cripple our health service with no-shows.

What you quoted are the double standards I'm taking about. These people (Neil Ferguson and other highly conservative government experts) are more concerned with creating and following a public narrative that will ultimately make sure they are insulated from any blame if their predictions / suggestions go wrong. Before, cautiousness before felt right ... even deceptive double speak at times felt right - in order to cajole people in the right direction.

But now it feels wrong. Enough is enough. At some point we have to face up to this virus. That was what the vaccine program was for. Time to bite the bullet IMO. Get everyone boosted and let's go. I get my booster on the 22nd.

I had to wait 6 months in order to book my booster ... then on the 15th December, the day i was due to book, they changed it to 3 months

[The Feral Slasher]

The SA data is overwhelmingly indicative of milder symptoms and a lower hospitalization rate despite many more infections. That's the data we have, and that data is based on massive infections for about 1 month. If we get overwhelmed in the UK, it will be because of our ping / isolation protocols could (will) cripple our health service with no-shows.

What you quoted are the double standards I'm taking about. These people (Neil Ferguson and other highly conservative government experts) are more concerned with creating and following a public narrative that will ultimately make sure they are insulated from any blame if their predictions / suggestions go wrong. Before, cautiousness before felt right ... even deceptive double speak at times felt right - in order to cajole people in the right direction.

But now it feels wrong. Enough is enough. At some point we have to face up to this virus. That was what the vaccine program was for. Time to bite the bullet IMO. Get everyone boosted and let's go. I get my booster on the 22nd.

I had to wait 6 months in order to book my booster ... then on the 15th December, the day i was due to book, they changed it to 3 months

It may turn out that Omicron is milder than Delta. The non government scientists I read are on the whole optimistic, but I don't see them making definitive statements yet. We'll find out soon enough, long before any American federal or state government will take any significant action, that is certain. May be different elsewhere.

[johnnya24]

It may turn out that Omicron is milder than Delta. The non government scientists I read are on the whole optimistic, but I don't see them making definitive statements yet. We'll find out soon enough, long before any American federal or state government will take any significant action, that is certain. May be different elsewhere.

But even so, let's play hypothetical ... let's say it's not milder, let's say it's the same. We aren't controlling the spread of this variant. That is clear, so any measures will be half measures. And what? Are we going to keep stumbling from one variant to the next and tanking our economy every time?

I just think it's time ... this is about as good as it gets if we are to, once and for all, face up to this virus. Get boosted, and let's roll the dice ... the odds won't get any better.

[revo]

The NHL is looking to potentially pause its season due to covid, and is now likely to pull the plug on allowing its players to play in the Winter Olympics in February.

[johnnya24]

Jake Paul is back again with some Omicron science ... where does he find the time? Basically, new research from Hong Kong finds that Omicron is 70x more infectious in the respiratory tract, and 10x less infectious in the lung tissue - hence cold-flu-like symptoms, rather than chronic lung disease.

Also, some other interesting corroborating data: 50% of new UK Covid patients in London are incidental just like South Africa (that is, they were being admitted for something else, and found to have Omicron incidentally).

Moreover, Sajid Javid, our Heath Minister today stated:

"There's about 10 percent of the population that remain unvaccinated.
"We know in hospital, when you look at hospitalisations, they make up a disproportionate amount of those that are severely ill.
"In fact, if we look at those most ill in hospital, needing the most care and attention, around 9 out of 10 of them are unvaccinated.
"This is a really important issue. People have had almost a year now to get vaccinated."

[The Feral Slasher]

But even so, let's play hypothetical ... let's say it's not milder, let's say it's the same. We aren't controlling the spread of this variant. That is clear, so any measures will be half measures. And what? Are we going to keep stumbling from one variant to the next and tanking our economy every time?

I just think it's time ... this is about as good as it gets if we are to, once and for all, face up to this virus. Get boosted, and let's roll the dice ... the odds won't get any better.

I can understand this sentiment, I don't think I'm quite onboard yet, although I suspect that will be the eventual path. Overwhelming the hospitals and healthcare workers is a big concern for me right now, especially until it is confirmed that Omicron is less severe, and even if it is less severe given how rapidly it spreads. Hopefully we will get approval of drugs that are effective treatment soon which would be a big help. I wish the US made it a priority to have free masks and rapid tests available. And free/affordable health care and sick leave from work. Seems like there is more we could do if it was a priority. Having a large minority of people who are living an alternate reality makes it a more difficult problem.

[johnnya24]

I can understand this sentiment, I don't think I'm quite onboard yet, although I suspect that will be the eventual path. Overwhelming the hospitals and healthcare workers is a big concern for me right now, especially until it is confirmed that Omicron is less severe, and even if it is less severe given how rapidly it spreads. Hopefully we will get approval of drugs that are effective treatment soon which would be a big help. I wish the US made it a priority to have free masks and rapid tests available. And free/affordable health care and sick leave from work. Seems like there is more we could do if it was a priority. Having a large minority of people who are living an alternate reality makes it a more difficult problem.

The point is, we can't control the spread. It's too infectious. And previously the vaccine makers were talking about 3-6 month timescale for any Omicron specific vaccine roll-out, so forget about treatments ... although I hear sunlight and bleach are good

A change of mindset for Omicron is desperately needed IMO. We can't keep with the same pre-vaccine mindset.

If there are largescale Omicron lockdowns, we will see massive widespread civil disturbance.

[The Feral Slasher]

The point is, we can't control the spread. It's too infectious. And previously the vaccine makers were talking about 3-6 month timescale for any Omicron specific vaccine roll-out, so forget about treatments ... although I hear sunlight and bleach are good

A change of mindset for Omicron is desperately needed IMO. We can't keep with the same pre-vaccine mindset.

If there are largescale Omicron lockdowns, we will see massive widespread civil disturbance.

I believe there are already apparently effective treatments being studied or in the approval process (though not sure how they would work with Omicron). I'd have to do some more digging to confirm, but pretty confident that is the case. I think throwing up your hands and calling for a free for all at this moment might not be the best decision, although we may decide soon that we have no other option. I'm relatively certain we won't have large scale lockdowns in the US, at least until/unless Omicron takes a heavy, heavy toll, but it sounds like that is more likely in the UK and Europe.

[johnnya24]

I believe there are already apparently effective treatments being studied or in the approval process (though not sure how they would work with Omicron). I'd have to do some more digging to confirm, but pretty confident that is the case. I think throwing up your hands and calling for a free for all at this moment might not be the best decision, although we may decide soon that we have no other option. I'm relatively certain we won't have large scale lockdowns in the US, at least until/unless Omicron takes a heavy, heavy toll, but it sounds like that is more likely in the UK and Europe.

I'm kinda shocked by the amount of wrangling I'm reading in these Covid threads about treatments, Ivermectin etc etc. What's the point ... the vaccines are the way out, not reactive treatments.

It's not a throwing up of the hands ... we have a massively successful and effective vaccine program - we have 90% vaccine uptake and huge booster demand. That's the treatment.

[The Feral Slasher]

I'm kinda shocked by the amount of wrangling I'm reading in these Covid threads about treatments, Ivermectin etc etc. What's the point ... the vaccines are the way out, not reactive treatments.

It's not a throwing up of the hands ... we have a massively successful and effective vaccine program - we have 90% vaccine uptake and huge booster demand. That's the treatment.

well if the hospitals get overwhelmed wouldn't it be nice to have some good treatment option? Or even if they don't, seems like it would be prudent to identify possible treatment that could help if future variants are resistant to vaccines, and to treat the unvaccinated. I can't understand at all why spending money on effective treatment would be a bad idea.

[The Feral Slasher]

I'm kinda shocked by the amount of wrangling I'm reading in these Covid threads about treatments, Ivermectin etc etc. What's the point ... the vaccines are the way out, not reactive treatments.

It's not a throwing up of the hands ... we have a massively successful and effective vaccine program - we have 90% vaccine uptake and huge booster demand. That's the treatment.

anyway, at this point Omicron is upon us and hopefully it is mild and vaccines are effective. Not much we can do at this point short of a complete lock down - not happening in the US, your experience in the UK is different, I'm sure that would lead to a different perspective.

[TranaGreg]

...
It's not a throwing up of the hands ... we have a massively successful and effective vaccine program - we have 90% vaccine uptake and huge booster demand. That's the treatment.

same thing here - it's all about getting boosters into people asap. Got mine on Saturday. I figure we've got roughly 4-6 weeks - by then pretty much everyone will have been exposed except for the hermits.

[Sour Masher]

I'm kinda shocked by the amount of wrangling I'm reading in these Covid threads about treatments, Ivermectin etc etc. What's the point ... the vaccines are the way out, not reactive treatments.

It's not a throwing up of the hands ... we have a massively successful and effective vaccine program - we have 90% vaccine uptake and huge booster demand. That's the treatment.

Are you referring to a country or region for 90% fully vaccinated? That is a lot higher than anywhere in the US. When I look up North Ireland, the UK, London, I'm not seeing numbers that high online, but that is great if it is. It certainly bolstered the ride it out argument if the vaccination rate is that high. Here, I fear it is gonna cause a lot of deaths, but folks have certainly had their chances to get vaxxed here. It is just too politicized here.

[The Feral Slasher]

same thing here - it's all about getting boosters into people asap. Got mine on Saturday. I figure we've got roughly 4-6 weeks - by then pretty much everyone will have been exposed except for the hermits.

I don't think you have 4-6 weeks. Look at the chart, nearly vertical. Vaccinate as fast as you can, that is the right approach...but shit is likely to hit the fan. Hope for mild Omicron.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/world/canada-covid-cases.html

Edit: probably read your post wrong, there is certainly a window for people to get vaccinated and stay home and avoid getting infected...but collectively the spike in cases is baked in at this point. Canada appears to be doing quite a bit better than the US in terms of fatalities. Hopefully fatality rate stays low.

[chancellor]

well if the hospitals get overwhelmed wouldn't it be nice to have some good treatment option? Or even if they don't, seems like it would be prudent to identify possible treatment that could help if future variants are resistant to vaccines, and to treat the unvaccinated. I can't understand at all why spending money on effective treatment would be a bad idea.

I agree. I also agree with johnny that we need to get out of lockdown mentality. These aren't mutually exclusive goals. For normal, healthy individuals, vaccinations followed by normal behavior entails extremely low risk. OTOH, there's enough non-healthy/high risk individuals that merit treatment options - cancer patients, for example, or other immune-suppressed individuals.