Judge Jude's 2021 Anatomy of an Auction

[ThatRogue]

...Enjoyed the draft room stories about technological and diplomatic challenges!

Made me lol a few times. Did you ever find your glasses?

Indeed! This line in particular made me lol:

"in the pre-game, the 1980s called and asked for one owner's modem back."

Classic burn!

[Gregg]

As usual I enjoyed the read. Thank you for posting it.

A little suprised Thor is not on your team.

I look forward to reading your updates. Best of luck.

[ThatRogue]

That doesn't look anything like a Stars and Scrubs team...that looks like a traditional Judge Jude roster, with Nola taking the place of the aging Max Scherzer.

At first glance the majority of the prices seem reasonable considering the league parameters. Snell 33 seems expensive because he never pitches the innings volume of the true aces, Corbin 24 seems a bit high coming off of last season, and Paddack's 2020 & spring results would make me wary above 15. Walker 10 feels like a good buy at that price...but I'm biased in his favor. And Price at 3 should be a bargain for this season, although he'll be 36 as a potential keeper in 2022.

I like Owings but 10 seems pricey absent a full time role. However, he has a reasonable chance to carve out a Chris Taylor like path to 400+ ABs and earn the investment. And I know SB are scarce but in an OBP league I wouldn't want to buy S.Marte 40 at the same price as Harper 40.


Thanks for posting...an interesting and informative read, as always!

[Judge Jude]

That doesn't look anything like a Stars and Scrubs team...that looks like a traditional Judge Jude roster, with Nola taking the place of the aging Max Scherzer.

it stings because it's true, lol

Everyone has a plan until they punch themselves in the mouth, as Mike Tyson once didn't say.

fwiw traditional 5x5 here means AVG not OBP

yeah, I got driven up the ladder early on Carrasco. got him for 16 while Thor went later at 15 at a bad sequence for me. oh well
and one guy "trap-door spider-ed" Clevenger. waited until no one could bid more than 5 - which is what he had left - and sprung up and grabbed Clevenger at that price. if he opened at less, another owner could have jumped to 5 first. this way he locked him up.

both my squad and the one whose June pick (well, it's July this year) that I also own are projected near the bottom (I am strong in AVG and SB but stink in power. savvy Moms are not buying their kids Nola or Blackmon Bren-moor jerseys, basically.

so have HRamos, Baty, and on April 15 add Luciano plus have the 7th and 12th picks. the midseason farm picks both are liable to be top 4 selections. and if UCLA star McClain is picked by an NL team, I keep his rights also.

for April 2022, I have to finish 6th again to get the first pick. but if contenders want to blow me away with cheap talent...

[joncarlos]

SP Snell 33, Nola 32, Hendricks 25, Corbin 24, Morton 23, Burnes 20, Paddack 20, Gausman 18, Stroman 17, Carrasco 16, SGray 16, THOR 15, Mahle 15, Davies 11, Erlin 10, TWalker 10

Burnes is an absolute heist at that price. Thor is crazy high. That can't really be Robbie Erlin? I really like Nola at value.

RP EDiaz 28, Jansen 25, Hand 23, McGee 18, Kimbrel 17, Melancon 17, Rodriguez 17, AReyes 14, Bard 11, Gallegos 11, Bass 10

I like Bass at those prices, and Kenley/Diaz. The rest are just risky enough that I wouldn't be excited about them. I still believe in Kimbrel but he's not making me feel good about it.

C d'Arnaud 13, Posey 12
1B Goldschmidt 31, Hosmer 30, Rizzo 27, Hiura 27, Bell 26, Cron 23, Aguilar 13, Votto 10
3B Suarez 30, JTurner 26, Bryant 26, Escobar 16, Moran 13, Fuentes 13

Catchers are solid, 1Bs are solid - Hosmer is a bit high. Fuentes is crazy high. Maybe being Nolan's cousin makes him immune to the Rox' stupid roster decisions but his K:BB was atrocious lastr year. 3Bs seem fine.

2B Albies 31, KMarte 30, Cronenworth 19, Segura 17, Hampson 14, India 10, Owings 10
SS Baez 30, Gregorius 17, DeJong 15, Swanson 14

Love, love, love Swanson at that price. Owings is very high (see Fuentes comment). Segura probably my other fave on this list. Cronenworth is nice too.

OF SMarte 40, Harper 40, Pham 32, Blackmon 32, Ozuna 31, Myers 25, Schwarber 20, DomSmith 18, Nimmo 18, Pollock 17, Peralta 15, Polanco 14, Cain 14, Senzel 13, ADickerson 11

Ozuna is great at that price, like the Schwarber pick and probably Pollock. None are really bad. Dom could be a steal but there's just too many Mets. Cain seems like a scary risk right now.

[Gregg]

SP Snell 33, Nola 32, Hendricks 25, Corbin 24, Morton 23, Burnes 20, Paddack 20, Gausman 18, Stroman 17, Carrasco 16, SGray 16, THOR 15, Mahle 15, Davies 11, Erlin 10, TWalker 10

Burnes is an absolute heist at that price. Thor is crazy high. That can't really be Robbie Erlin? I really like Nola at value.

RP EDiaz 28, Jansen 25, Hand 23, McGee 18, Kimbrel 17, Melancon 17, Rodriguez 17, AReyes 14, Bard 11, Gallegos 11, Bass 10

I like Bass at those prices, and Kenley/Diaz. The rest are just risky enough that I wouldn't be excited about them. I still believe in Kimbrel but he's not making me feel good about it.

C d'Arnaud 13, Posey 12
1B Goldschmidt 31, Hosmer 30, Rizzo 27, Hiura 27, Bell 26, Cron 23, Aguilar 13, Votto 10
3B Suarez 30, JTurner 26, Bryant 26, Escobar 16, Moran 13, Fuentes 13

Catchers are solid, 1Bs are solid - Hosmer is a bit high. Fuentes is crazy high. Maybe being Nolan's cousin makes him immune to the Rox' stupid roster decisions but his K:BB was atrocious lastr year. 3Bs seem fine.

2B Albies 31, KMarte 30, Cronenworth 19, Segura 17, Hampson 14, India 10, Owings 10
SS Baez 30, Gregorius 17, DeJong 15, Swanson 14

Love, love, love Swanson at that price. Owings is very high (see Fuentes comment). Segura probably my other fave on this list. Cronenworth is nice too.

OF SMarte 40, Harper 40, Pham 32, Blackmon 32, Ozuna 31, Myers 25, Schwarber 20, DomSmith 18, Nimmo 18, Pollock 17, Peralta 15, Polanco 14, Cain 14, Senzel 13, ADickerson 11

Ozuna is great at that price, like the Schwarber pick and probably Pollock. None are really bad. Dom could be a steal but there's just too many Mets. Cain seems like a scary risk right now.

Kimbrel with 3k's in a non save yesterday, 2k's and Save today. Pretty good start.

[chancellor]

some PRICES in the auction which look most out of line?

SP Snell 33, Nola 32, Hendricks 25, Corbin 24, Morton 23, Burnes 20, Paddack 20, Gausman 18, Stroman 17, Carrasco 16, SGray 16, THOR 15, Mahle 15, Davies 11, Eflin 10, TWalker 10
Really like Corbin at 24 and Gray at 16. Don't see any terrible buys there.
RP EDiaz 28, Jansen 25, Hand 23, McGee 18, Kimbrel 17, Melancon 17, Rodriguez 17, AReyes 14, Bard 11, Gallegos 11, Bass 10
I wouldn't go near Jansen at premier closer prices. McGee at 18 seems...optimistic.
C d'Arnaud 13, Posey 12
Like the former, don't like the latter
1B Goldschmidt 31, Hosmer 30, Rizzo 27, Hiura 27, Bell 26, Cron 23, Aguilar 13, Votto 10
Hosmer at 30...no thanks. Aguilar at 13...sure!
3B Suarez 30, JTurner 26, Bryant 26, Escobar 16, Moran 13, Fuentes 13
Moran at 13 looks good. Fuentes at 13...nope.
2B Albies 31, KMarte 30, Cronenworth 19, Segura 17, Hampson 14, India 10, Owings 10
There's no way Owings should come close to earning 10, but he's on the Rockies, so who knows?
SS Baez 30, Gregorius 17, DeJong 15, Swanson 14
Swanson = steal. Wow.
OF SMarte 40, Harper 40, Pham 32, Blackmon 32, Ozuna 31, Myers 25, Schwarber 20, DomSmith 18, Nimmo 18, Pollock 17, Peralta 15, Polanco 14, Cain 14, Senzel 13Ozuna seems like a really good price. Senzel is a big risk, but he has a lot of upside. Dom Smith is a win at 18.

[Judge Jude]

I noted that I took TTurner in our one-round draft on Thursday, then grabbed Gregorius in Saturday's second round so owned 2 for 61. I almost passed on Gregorius because I wanted Swanson, but at 17 he was a rare uninflated value buy.

so of course Swanson comes right up and I am facing losing my UT slot with 20 players to go. in retrospect I should have price-enforced to 15 and 17 and maybe 19, and then been able to sigh and move on. no idea what the rest of the league was thinking.

[Judge Jude]

we have that dreadful Bidmeister now, which makes trying to manage your roster between Thursday mornings utterly useless.

my squad has cooperated, so I'll get my pick of FAs tomorrow. at least we limit FA pickups to replace active players to six per year, or the poor bastards who make the mistake of having a good team would never get a chance to add a player who can fog a mirror.

Soria to DL, so I have my pick of the lemons with no move needed (also an option to add farmhand Neidert for 5, but can wait a week on that).

looking for a, well, "gray swan" - pick up a RP who, if we all squint hard enough, might possssibly have a closer gig to open 2022 and thus be worth keeping for 10 units.

with an 11-team league and no bench, the list is seemingly endless. whittling it down to:
Bedrosian, GCabrera, Curtiss, Devenski, Doolittle, Givens, DanHudson, Knebel, Matzek, Treinen, Weathers....

yeesh

if nothing appeals, could add Devenski and package him with a 4-unit, 36-year-old Soria - maybe to the 1-unit Ginkel owner

[chancellor]

I'd go with Devenski and follow up as you noted, or whichever of the Dodger RPs listed. Treinen sure seemed the likely bet at the start of the year, but someone in the Dodger org sure seems to have a mancrush on Knebel. Of that list, if you're looking for most likely closer for 2022, I think it'll come from that pair of Dodgers.

[Judge Jude]

thanks, chance. I also have Graterol on the DL, so I have already wet my beak there - and yes, I first "asked my doctor if Graterol is right for me."

(did same with Solano and Casali)

[cavebird]

A great read as always. Welcome back and condolences for the passing of your leaguemate. I am with the Owings went for more than a buck??? crowd rather than the one who thinks he was a good price---the guy has a .654 career OPS in a longish career. I don't see any upside here--only in Colorado does he have a half-time job. Your team is interesting for a rebuilder---not the normal stars and scrubs, but enough that you could get something very helpful for your stars on top of the stuff you got for moving all your keepers. Good luck!

[bryanbutler]

Good stuff. As others have said, condolences on the loss of your league-mate. We lost one of our long-timers (joined in our 4th year) to a kayaking accident last spring - it really sucks.

[Judge Jude]

MAY DAY UPDATE

started with

ROSTER

SP Aaron Nola 32
SP Sonny Gray 16 (IL)/Luke Weaver CUT
SP Carlos Carrasco 16 (IL)/Josh Lindblom CUT
SP Taijuan Walker 10
SR David Price 3
SR John Gant 2
SR STL Kim 2 (IL)/Rainey CUT
RP Soria 4
RP Graterol (IL) 2/Minter CUT

Price, Soria, Knebel on IL, replaced by AWood, Doolittle, Floro

C Stallings 2
C Casali 1
1B Votto 10
3B Fuentes 13
CI Segura 17
2B Solano 2
SS TTurner 44
MI Gregorious 17
OF Blackmon 32
OF Pollock 17
OF Cain 14
OF Daza 1
OF Bader 1 (IL)/PIT Fowler CUT
UT Rios 2

Segura, Cain, Solano on IL, replaced by Maton, Brinson, Ruf

BAD NEWS: 25 points, last place by 17
GREAT NEWS: Standings: 77, 76, 75.5, 71, 68.5, 65 (57.5, 52.5, 49, 43, 25)

6 teams, 12 points = tremendous seller's market
Team 43 Points tends to be reluctant to sell

SP staff looks intriguing both for 2021 AND 2022 (except for Nola), adding Carrasco and AWood to the list
still fishing for SV
no better than 8th in any category

BIGGEST DISASTERS (Cost minus Production)
OF Blackmon 32/3
SP Nola 32/13
SP SGray 16/-7
SP Carrasco 16/0
OF Cain 14/6
3B Fuentes 13/5
CI Rios 2/-5

TTurner at 44 my most interesting potential hitting keeper in a pile of mostly uninteresting hitters
Bader and Daza, maybe, for a buck and Stallings for 2. yawn
I'll probably move Nola and Blackmon for hitting keepers
Segura, Gregorius can be sweeteners to replace bums

the key to this rebuild, of course, is the farm:
Luciano, Carroll, HRamos, Baty, McLain (if in NL), Marquez
1st pick on July 15 and pacing for the 7th pick as well

[Sharky]

With Luciano coming up, consider dealing Turner if you can get a great return. He won’t speed up as he ages.