Keeper League Strategy?

[Sharky]

In our longstanding “only” league, a ton of talent was kept this year. We allow a fixed number of keepers, but inflation will be a bit higher than normal because of the relationship between keeper expected production and prices.

In typical “only” leagues, it is critical to accumulate playing time / ABs. Stars and scrubs can be a challenging approach because you may not accumulate enough volume. But when inflation is high and a lot of the best talent is off the board before the auction, what do you do? Thoughts and recommendations appreciated.

Chase the top players and backfill via trades? Pursue “balance” even more than normal?

Also, any thoughts on nominating strategy would be helpful. Nominate players you want early? Nominate positions you’ve largely covered or are “deep” on already?

[joncarlos]

This is 12to every year (our NL only league). I haven't really figured out the strategy, but paying 60+ for Yelich or Mookie seems smarter than paying 45 for Castellanos or 30 for Jean Segura. Eventually the warm bodies are bargains in the 10 dollar range but it takes forever to get there. It seems to be better to go somewhat stars and scrubs and just hope to hit on your cheap guys.

[chancellor]

Depends on my keeper list. If I have a strong keeper list, and feel like I can compete, I'm figuring out my biggest weakness and going after it with a premier player. I tend to avoid players with high perceived trade risk since my only leagues lose players traded out of the league. I'll go for another upper tier player and then value shop after that.

If I have a good keeper list, but there's clearly 2-3 better keeper lists, then I'll take more risk in the auction. Players this year that come to mind are Kris Bryant, Rizzo, Thor, Hiura, Story and Blackmon.

If my keeper list is an absolute train wreck, I go full-on stars and scrubs.

[Redbirds Fan]

Depends on my keeper list. If I have a strong keeper list, and feel like I can compete, I'm figuring out my biggest weakness and going after it with a premier player. I tend to avoid players with high perceived trade risk since my only leagues lose players traded out of the league. I'll go for another upper tier player and then value shop after that.

If I have a good keeper list, but there's clearly 2-3 better keeper lists, then I'll take more risk in the auction. Players this year that come to mind are Kris Bryant, Rizzo, Thor, Hiura, Story and Blackmon.

If my keeper list is an absolute train wreck, I go full-on stars and scrubs.

What's the reasoning here?

[Sharky]

Super helpful. Thanks! I have strong keepers and a lot of auction $ this year. The idea of going a few extra to address your weakness is sound and a good suggestion. I also like JC’s idea of spending more for top talent (A) instead of next tier (B/B+) talent.

[chancellor]

What's the reasoning here?

Goal is two-fold. Most likely outcome with a really bad keeper list is the team won't be competitive for a top slot, so the S/S will be the start of a rebuilding process. Hold the stars for ransom over the top teams to trade for keepers and hope I hit on some scrubs as quality keepers. On the unlikely outcome that my team is competitive - say, I misjudged how bad my keeper list was, or was unusually fortunate on my scrubs buys - then I have good "scrubs" keepers that I can trade near the deadline for top players.

[Gregg]

Depends on my keeper list. If I have a strong keeper list, and feel like I can compete, I'm figuring out my biggest weakness and going after it with a premier player. I tend to avoid players with high perceived trade risk since my only leagues lose players traded out of the league. I'll go for another upper tier player and then value shop after that.

If I have a good keeper list, but there's clearly 2-3 better keeper lists, then I'll take more risk in the auction. Players this year that come to mind are Kris Bryant, Rizzo, Thor, Hiura, Story and Blackmon.

If my keeper list is an absolute train wreck, I go full-on stars and scrubs.

This is pretty much how I play it.

[Redbirds Fan]

Goal is two-fold. Most likely outcome with a really bad keeper list is the team won't be competitive for a top slot, so the S/S will be the start of a rebuilding process. Hold the stars for ransom over the top teams to trade for keepers and hope I hit on some scrubs as quality keepers. On the unlikely outcome that my team is competitive - say, I misjudged how bad my keeper list was, or was unusually fortunate on my scrubs buys - then I have good "scrubs" keepers that I can trade near the deadline for top players.

Thanks!

[cavebird]

If people are keeping high priced keepers (and your keeper list isn't garbage--if it is, I agree with chancellor) I'd go with boring production---zig if they zag, and they have already zagged.

[Ken]

If people are keeping high priced keepers (and your keeper list isn't garbage--if it is, I agree with chancellor) I'd go with boring production---zig if they zag, and they have already zagged.

In a keep 15 league with 15 teams there's a bit of everything - Harper is being kept at $50, possibly Lindor at $45, Machado at $42, Story $45. But lots of cheap stars too Acuna $15 option ($25 or $30), Soto $10 option ($25?), Bellinger $15, and Darvish $10. And lots and lots of "boring production"

[ssmallz]

Super helpful. Thanks! I have strong keepers and a lot of auction $ this year. The idea of going a few extra to address your weakness is sound and a good suggestion. I also like JC’s idea of spending more for top talent (A) instead of next tier (B/B+) talent.

$ value is really all relative to the amount of talent and inflation around the league so don't tie yourself to a specific number. What does everyone else normally do? You should be keeping track of past auctions. If past auctions are anything like this one, you should get a feel for what the market will be and what other teams will do. Find the pockets of value and attack from there

[cool hand]

$ value is really all relative to the amount of talent and inflation around the league so don't tie yourself to a specific number. What does everyone else normally do? You should be keeping track of past auctions. If past auctions are anything like this one, you should get a feel for what the market will be and what other teams will do. Find the pockets of value and attack from there

This.

[Sharky]

Interesting. We have two only leagues. In the first auction, people waited for bargains and I cleaned up by buying steadily in the first half; then the others had money but no targets left worth acquiring. In the second, everyone adjusted and it was more evenly spread. Fascinating how it can change. Well, also much more talent available in the second auction.

So thanks - good points! What do you track specifically about past auctions?