2K21 Battle: Zac Gallen v. Pablo Lopez

[cavebird]

The idea for this came from a different thread, but it is interesting, at least to me. How do these former Marlins farmhands compare? Let's go to the tale of the tape.

We can start with the helium boy, Zac Gallen. He went for $7 more in LABR NL ($19-$12).

He's 25 yrs., 7 mo., 4 days old. His major league career line, all in 2019 and 2020 is: 152 IP, 6 W, 2.78 ERA, 3.64 FIP, 3.90 xFIP, 178 K, 61 BB, 1.17 WHIP, 12.5 swinging strike %. 93.1 MPH on the FB, large pitch mix.

Projections for 2021:

Steamer: 10 W, 4.01 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 186 K
The BAT: 10 W, 3.77 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 174 K
ATC: 10 W, 3.66 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 192 K
ZIPS: 12 W, 3.74 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 193 K

The last two projections project over 180 IP, which I find interesting for a team with a young, good pitcher that is not expected to be in a pennant race.


Now, let's look at the challenger, the birthday boy, exactly 25 years old today, Pablo Lopez. Major league career goes back to 2018, despite his being younger. 227.1 IP, 4.47 ERA (but 3.61 in 2020), 4.03 FIP (3.09 in 2020), 4.15 xFIP (3.73 in 2020), 200 K (big uptick in K/9 in 2020), 63 BB (but uptick in BB/9 in 2020), 1.23 WHIP, 10.7 swinging strike % (12.1 in 2020). 93.3 MPH on the fastball, large pitch mix.

Projections for 2021:

Steamer: 10 W, 3.85 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 152 K
The BAT: 8 W, 3.80 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 137 K
ATC: 10 W, 3.80 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 153 K
ZIPS: 10 W, 4.15 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 129 K


So, are these guys similar, as they look to me, or is Gallen just far better?

[Bene Futuis]

Gallen by fatality.

[cavebird]

Let me ask the more appropriate question: which is better in a 5x5 16 tm. mixed, $300 budget league: $22 Gallen or $ 6 Lopez. Bene, your answer is already obvious.

[Bene Futuis]

Lol I actually do like Pablo Lopez pretty well

[chancellor]

I think Gallen's better. Not $16 better as in your league. But better.

[Sour Masher]

I think Gallen's better. Not $16 better as in your league. But better.

In a 16 mixed league, I'd still go with Gallen. There is more money with 16 teams, and it is still deep enough that it is generally good to just go with the best keeper, even at the higher price, especially with inflation factored in, which tends to be higher for the better players, so that $16 spread in a 16 team mixed league isn't out of line, given their projections. I do like Pablo and it is close, given the prices, so if you are pretty much broke with your keeper list and have to free up some funds for other needs, (I recall another thread suggesting as much), I could see going with Pablo. But man, do pundits love Gallen. Orel even said he reminded him of Maddux.

[joncarlos]

Gallen's 28.2% k rate is a little bit on the high end for someone with a 12.8% swinging strike rate. He's a pitcher with a capital P, but will the Ks always be there? They're both in good parks. I think Gallen reminds me a lot more of Greinke - I'm not ready to throw down a Maddux comp just yet, even though I really do like him. His zone % was only 46.1% which is kind of middling, but his first pitch strike % was 64.9 which was 9th best among qualified pitchers. Which is why I'd say more Greinke than Maddux - he's throwing more pitches out of the zone on purpose, so his walk rate isn't going to be in the 1 BB/9 range. He'll generally have a solid defense behind him and his bullpen isn't bad. It's not great, but it's not bad. He's in a really good park for pitchers now that they've humidified it. Even though he's young, he's efficient and his IP/G will be high, so I don't have a problem projecting him for a good number of
innings.

Lopez had a 12.1% SwStr% and a 24.6% K rate that matches it pretty well. His zone percentage was 48.3% which was pretty good, but his first pitch strike % was lower than Gallen at 59.6%. He's also in a good park. His bullpen is also pretty good, though not great. I think Gallen has a lot more upside, and in a redraft league I could take either at their price. (15 team draft champions on NFBC, from 2/15 to 3/8, Gallen is pitcher 14 and Pablo is pitcher 52)

But given a huge difference in price like your league, I'd lean slightly towards Lopez.