2021 NL Only Keeper List

[ThatRogue]

I wound up finishing fourth last season...my first "money" finish in several years, but a disappointment, nonetheless. If you read my 2020 Anatomy thread, you'd know I felt very good after the auction...but by the time the season began in late July, I had lost Price ($23) and Cespedes ($9) to opt-outs, Archer ($10) to TO surgery, then lost Doolittle ($21) & K.Bryant ($48) to various injuries and poor performances. The three pitchers accounted for all of my auction pitching buys ($54), and Bryant ($48) was my most expensive hitting purchase. Finishing 1st in both the saves and steals categories primarily due to cheap keepers (and the FAAB of Jeffress) was instrumental in making it onto the podium, despite getting virtually nothing for $115 out of my $280 auction budget.

So now I'm back to seek the Pen's assistance/approval in making a run at winning. My core is mostly intact, with Fried being the most significant loss from last year's squad (though Nick Ahmed was a key contributor too). Here are the league details:

NL-only, 40 man rosters (25 active, 15 reserve), $280 budget, 5x5 (OBP instead of BAvg). In addition to keeping up to 15 players, pre-auction, a team may protect an additional 3 minor league exempt players (MLE), at no salary impact (first year of contract starts when they exceed MLB rookie minimums of 130 AB/50 IP). Hitting inflation tends to run between 35% - 45%, and pitching inflation tends to run between 15% - 25%, depending on the season.


Here's what I have to evaluate, with roster freeze being two weeks away (March 19th):

			Contracts
Pos	Players	Team	Salary	Contract
PROBABLE KEEPERS
1B	Pete Alonso 1B	NYM	$8	A19
2B	Chris Taylor 2B, OF, SS	LAD	$6	A20
SS	Mauricio Dubon 2B, OF, SS	SF	$7	A20
MI	Miguel Rojas SS	MIA	$1	A19
CI	Jesus Aguilar 1B	MIA	$8	A20
OF	Ronald Acuna OF	ATL	$22	*23
OF	Sam Hilliard OF	COL	$2	A20
OF	Bryan Reynolds OF	PIT	$7	A19
OF	Victor Robles OF	WAS	$8	A19
OF	Raimel Tapia OF	COL	$5	A20
P	Adbert Alzolay P	CHC	$3	A20
P	Dylan Floro P	MIA	$1	A21
P	Drew Pomeranz P	SD	$1	A19
P	Daniel Hudson P	WAS	$3	A19
MLE OPTIONS
SS	Jose Garcia SS	CIN	$7	A20
SS	Ronny Mauricio SS	NYM	$8	A20
OF	Hunter Bishop OF	SF	$7	A20
P	Hunter Greene P	CIN	$2	A20
OTHER OPTIONS…BUT LEANING AGAINST KEEPING
C	Jorge Alfaro C	MIA	$12	A20
C	Stephen Vogt C	ARI	$4	A20
OF	Lewis Brinson OF	MIA	$3	A20
OF	Yoenis Cespedes OF	NYM	$9	A20
P	Rowan Wick P	CHC	$3	A19
P	Johnny Cueto P	SF	$4	A19
P	Jeremy Jeffress P	WAS	$8	A20

If things remain the same, I'd have room for one additional keeper, unless I pull off a trade. I'm leaning towards extending both Alonso and Robles by two years, to $18 apiece. Part of the reason is that we have a Dynasty Prize, based on your aggregate finish over a rolling four year period, so I'd like to have the core of Acuna, Alonso and Robles together during all four seasons of this planned run. I don't plan to extend M.Rojas, and will take whatever he produces as a nice profit on his $1 price. I'm torn on what to do with Reynolds...and am leaning slightly towards extending him one season to $12 (though I could be swayed against doing so). Finally, I won't extend Pomeranz or Hudson, and just hope for decent saves from them at relatively cheap prices.

This plan would give me fourteen keepers for $107, leaving me $173 to purchase eleven more. I'll need two catchers, a third baseman, two utility players and six pitchers. I could easily afford two solid ~$35 - $40 hitters, two ~$25 starting pitchers, a ~$20 closer, two additional starting pitchers for ~$15 - 20 total and have ~$8 - $18 to spread among my final four players (two of which could be cheap catchers). Alternately, there will definitely be some decent catchers available in the draft (Realmuto, Contreras, McCann), so I could spend there, buy a solid 3B, and have reasonable funds left for more solid purchases at UT and SP.

I welcome your thoughts, feedback and suggestions. I definitely need help figuring out which three less-than-spectacular players to keep as MLE (especially since Alzolay also qualifies, so he's another option).

[BigJonEmpire]

I think you have the keepers right but I wouldn't extend Robles more than a year if at all. He'll steal bases and hit a few homers but he'd have to dramatically improve his discipline and approach to get me to spend $18 on him while expecting to win.

[Hornsby]

I think that BJE has it spot on. Wick might be worth keeping an eye on in case (better than 50/50 chance) Kimbrel is a mess again.

[chancellor]

I'd definitely extend Alonso for two years, and Robles for one. I can see the argument for two years - everything I see has him valued at $14-18, add in 40% inflation, and that puts him at a buy value of $19-24. And steals in a league as deep as yours might be hard to find. However, if I look at the chess board for next year, you have two players you may well want to extend - Aguilar and Hilliard, especially Hilliard. I'd not want Robles to tie up $18 especially if Hilliard goes all beast mode in Colorado this year.

Per your MLE options, I'd throw over Garcia. There's tools there, but the man seems to be morally incapable of taking a walk. I wouldn't even argue with throwing over Hunter Bishop and sliding Alzolay back into your MLE list, more for creating the opportunity for another value pitcher in the $2-5 range. The opportunity this year to get great values out of inexpensive Ps might be unmatched, with some teams talking six-man SP staffs, and others talking innings limits.

Per Reynolds, he's likely a $10-15 value player. I'd not extend.

Per Wick, you know I was high on him last year and have little to no confidence in Kimbrel. However, Wick is already fighting an oblique or intercostal injury (depending on who you read) and will not be ready for the start of the season. And oblique injuries scare me - so I'd toss him back in, and if he seems to be making good progress, he's someone you can consider re-buying in the endgame.

I like your strategy Plan A (cheap catchers late) versus Plan B (Pricey catcher early/mid). Realmuto just getting out of his thumb cast and Contreras with a trade threat hanging over his head just don't appeal to me. If McCann comes at a good value, maybe go there.

[umjewman]

Dump Acuna. Then I can bid on him.

[cavebird]

I'd definitely extend Alonso for two years, and Robles for one. I can see the argument for two years - everything I see has him valued at $14-18, add in 40% inflation, and that puts him at a buy value of $19-24. And steals in a league as deep as yours might be hard to find. However, if I look at the chess board for next year, you have two players you may well want to extend - Aguilar and Hilliard, especially Hilliard. I'd not want Robles to tie up $18 especially if Hilliard goes all beast mode in Colorado this year.

Per your MLE options, I'd throw over Garcia. There's tools there, but the man seems to be morally incapable of taking a walk. I wouldn't even argue with throwing over Hunter Bishop and sliding Alzolay back into your MLE list, more for creating the opportunity for another value pitcher in the $2-5 range. The opportunity this year to get great values out of inexpensive Ps might be unmatched, with some teams talking six-man SP staffs, and others talking innings limits.

Per Reynolds, he's likely a $10-15 value player. I'd not extend.

Per Wick, you know I was high on him last year and have little to no confidence in Kimbrel. However, Wick is already fighting an oblique or intercostal injury (depending on who you read) and will not be ready for the start of the season. And oblique injuries scare me - so I'd toss him back in, and if he seems to be making good progress, he's someone you can consider re-buying in the endgame.

I like your strategy Plan A (cheap catchers late) versus Plan B (Pricey catcher early/mid). Realmuto just getting out of his thumb cast and Contreras with a trade threat hanging over his head just don't appeal to me. If McCann comes at a good value, maybe go there.

That high on Hilliard? Interesting. I just see Dahl mach 2. Of course, we just don't know about the health yet. But still, the contact issues matter, even in Coors. All the tools in the world don't do it if you don't have the hit tool.

[chancellor]

That high on Hilliard? Interesting. I just see Dahl mach 2. Of course, we just don't know about the health yet. But still, the contact issues matter, even in Coors. All the tools in the world don't do it if you don't have the hit tool.

Contact issues are a legit concern. But the power speed combo is pretty impressive and his minor league numbers sure support them.

[cavebird]

Contact issues are a legit concern. But the power speed combo is pretty impressive and his minor league numbers sure support them.

Yeah, but the minor league contact numbers are really bad, too. Maybe he can do a Springer, but I have to see it first. Of course, he has time to decide. If he gets full playing time in a full year this year, we'll know a lot more. The other tools are completely legit.

[chancellor]

Yeah, but the minor league contact numbers are really bad, too. Maybe he can do a Springer, but I have to see it first. Of course, he has time to decide. If he gets full playing time in a full year this year, we'll know a lot more. The other tools are completely legit.

Agree - given that Colorado will probably be dumping, I think he'll get a lot of PT. And it won't take a miracle improvement, but just a modest improvement gets him to something resembling Teoscar Hernandez with a little less power but more SBs.

[ThatRogue]

Thanks for the responses, insight and advice guys! A few of my thoughts:

Robles: He's locked into the CF position, the Nats want him to hit leadoff ahead of Turner and Soto, he's taken two walks and stolen two bases in the first three ST games, and there isn't an advanced CF prospect in the Nats system. If he's serious about taking more walks and the Nats are serious about hitting him leadoff, he has the talent to be a 15 HR/25 SB/100 Runs .330 OBP threat during the next three years. It's a gamble, but releasing LT contract players in our league "ONLY" costs you $25 real dollars, with no impact on your future roster. Considering most MLB teams are focusing less on SBs than ever, identifying cheap speed in deeper leagues isn't easy (as Chance noted). Thus, I don't mind overpaying a little on the extension (the valuation systems I've run have him at $14 - $16 in my league format, with an OBP ranging from .291 to .317). Splitting the difference and taking a small profit by extending him only one season at $13 is an option that I'll consider, depending on his walk rate during the next couple of weeks.

Wick: I want to keep him, especially after Kimbrel was a disaster yesterday. But the oblique/intercostal injury is a problem, especially considering Wick ended last season with a similar injury (is there an undiagnosed tear that will require surgery?). If he has a miraculously quick improvement in his health AND Kimbrel is back to being a train wreck, I'll keep him...otherwise I'll probably toss him back. But I've been burned holding guys with spring training injuries that took much longer than expected to recover.

Hilliard: I am SOOOOOOO hoping I have the good problem of having to fit in a Hilliard salary extension next season (Tapia too). Who doesn't enjoy taking chances on cheap Rockies hitters, even though relatively few of them have worked out recently? We enjoyed the glory years of Helton, Holliday, Tulo, Cargo, Blackmon and Arrenado...but with the exception of Story, their recent hyped youngsters like Parker, Herrera, Dahl, McMahon, Hampson and Rodgers haven't developed into roto superstars (though for Dahl, he just couldn't avoid injury...his performance when actually healthy was solid). But, like I said, I am hopeful. Hilliard has tools, he appears to have the opportunity...can he get his contact and walk rates high enough to turn into a truly productive player.

Acuna: umjewman, if I did dump him, you couldn't fit his $60+ salary into your draft budget, so it would be pointless for you. Seriously, my only problem with Acuna is that I didn't listen to Chance and extend him to $27 last season (well...that, and he plays for Cavebird's beloved Braves).

Cueto: umjewman mentioned he was surprised I wasn't keeping him. Does he go for more than $4 in a deep NL-only league? Should he?

Garcia: Seems to have a little bit of power and a lot of speed. But MLB shutting down the minors due to COVID-19 really hurt his development time. Plus, his defense combined with the Reds desperation to find a long-term answer at SS means he might be rushed. He needs extended time in the minors to learn plate discipline to develop into a better hitter, but I'm unsure as to whether it will happen.

Bishop: Clearly I have a type. Bishop is somewhat similar to Sam Hilliard, just without the potential benefit of Coors Field (although Bishop doesn't mind talking walks). Having Alzolay slide into that MLE slot is very tempting...so unless I make a trade, figuring out the MLEs is going to be a struggle right up until freeze date.


Thanks again to everyone for the feedback! I have a few trade flyers out there, and have received a couple of offers. I'll let you know how things go...

[Sharky]

I think BJE nailed it. Remember it’s a balance between keepers and auction dollars. I probably wouldn’t extend Robles. If you extend, do you have to keep him? What’s the penalty to get out?

Btw, LGM 2021!!!

[ThatRogue]

I think BJE nailed it. Remember it’s a balance between keepers and auction dollars. I probably wouldn’t extend Robles. If you extend, do you have to keep him? What’s the penalty to get out?

Btw, LGM 2021!!!

I don't have to keep him, but I have to pay $25 into the prize pool ( with no impact to draft budget or lineup slots). It's more about what I'd be able to do with the extra draft dollars this season than any concern over future impact.

And yes...LGM!!!

[ThatRogue]

Sooooooooo...I did something a little risky. I spent some auction dollars before the auction. First, I traded Jorge Alfaro ($12, second year) for Kole Calhoun ($18, second year). Calhoun was priced right at my full season projected value...but assuming he misses the first month (his projected return is early-to-mid April, but it's better to be conservative), he's probably priced at 20% over value. Adding another outfielder gave me the depth to trade Reynolds ($7, option year) to umjewman for Eugenio Suarez ($39, option year). Reynolds is priced at 50% below my projected value whereas Suarez is priced at 50% above my projected value, which is not really a smart trade, under normal circumstances.

However, I did it because I surveyed the 3B landscape, and the best projected 3B in the auction are Kris Bryant, Brian Anderson, Evan Longoria and (probably) Arenado ($50, so I doubt he's kept at that price). Bryant probably goes mid $30s (100% more than my projected value), Anderson probably goes mid-to-high $20s (100% more than my projected value) and Arenado probably goes high $30s to low $40s (100% more than my projected value). If the bidding gets crazy for all of the top three available 3B, then someone gets stuck buying Longoria, who's suffering from Plantar Fasciitis and probably goes for around $10.


My probable keepers look like this:

CI: Alonso $18, Suarez $39, Aguilar $8
MI: C.Taylor $6, M.Dubon $7, M.Rojas $1
OF: Acuna $22, V.Robles $18 or $13, K.Calhoun $18, Tapia $5, Hilliard $2
P: Alzolay $3, Pomeranz $1
MLE: R.Mauricio, H.Bishop, H.Greene (Jose Garcia SS Reds is also an option, but not likely)

That's 13 keepers for either $148 or $143, depending on how long I extend Robles. And I have room for two more keepers from the following list:

Hitting options: Vogt (C) $4, Brinson (OF) $3, Cespedes (OF) $9
Pitching options: Hudson $3, Wick $3, Floro $1, Cueto $4, Jeffress $8

I'm leaning towards keeping Hudson and Floro...but if Cueto has a strong spring, I may keep him and choose between Hudson and Floro. Alternately, I could keep Hudson, Floro and Cueto...place Alzolay in an MLE slot, and toss back one of my minor leaguers. Or toss all three and just buy eight pitchers during the draft.

Keeping Hudson and Floro puts me at 15 keepers for $152, leaving me $128 for ten players. I'd need two catchers, two UT players and six pitchers. That really narrows my focus to building a pitching staff, but leaves me room to opportunistically purchase a couple of hitters that are bid below their projected value.

I think I have the makings of a solid offense that has a decent mix of power, speed and plenty of players who should see everyday at-bats for their teams. But, did I do too much here? Should I have not traded Alfaro for the injured Calhoun? Should I have forgone Suarez, kept Reynolds and just taken my chances on trying to get one of the available 3B for a reasonable price? What says the Pen?

[Teenwolf]

I think there comes a point at which owners prioritize team needs over value, and I think you may have done that here. In an Only league, why would a $1 flyer at 3B be a bad thing to start the season (unless you see zero low-cost 3B targets)? If all the available 3B seem likely inflated above value, why not pivot the money to a position you have more targets and keep 3B open for a trade upgrade?

I don't hate the Alfaro for Calhoun swap as much as the Reynolds for Suarez one. It just seems like siphoning profit before the draft unnecessarily.

That said, every league has its tendencies, and you know them better than I do. Good luck.

[umjewman]

You may also want to add that we both had UT spots filled in Suarez (me) and Reynolds (you). This allowed us both to free up a UT spot.