2k21: Kyle Tucker

[joncarlos]

An interesting guy who was an afterthought heading into 2020 drafts... then led the AL with 6 triples and finished with a .268-9hr-8sb season. And now he's a mid-late 2nd round pick in 15-team redraft leagues.

2020 stats: 58 games, 268/325/512, 9hr, 8sb, 42rbi, 33r, 7.9% walk rate, 20.2% K rate, .303 BABIP
Statcast: 84th percentile Exit Velo, 77th percentile hard hit rate, 58th percentile barrel rate, 70th percentile sprint speed... 94th percentile outs above average on defense (!)

Last year he hit 5th for 26 games, and the rest were spread out all over the map (6x cleanup, 5x 6th, 8x 7th, 8x 8th, 3x leadoff). The Astros' lineup is deep enough that he can produce from anywhere but right now Dusty is going to hit Miles Straw leadoff which probably makes Tucker the 7 hitter? (Straw, Bregman, Brantley, Yordan, Altuve, Correa, Tucker/Yuli?)

His projections justify the early pick but I wonder if they underrate his batting average. His speed is solid, his plate discipline is solid, and he's got plenty of power. I do worry about his runs total if he stays low in the order.

BATX: 653pa .253-27-86rbi-91r-21sb
ATC: 615pa, .260-27-93rbi-89r-20sb

[revo]

When I saw the initial ADP for him back in December, I was shocked. But his minor league stats translated well into his MLB stats, so a 25-25 season with 90+ RBIs isn't out of the question. Him and Luis Robert should put up similar stats.

[fuhrdog]

I traded for him in 2 leagues essentially giving up Eloy in both deals. Here is a more negative outlook on him for comparison.

https://razzball.com/kyle-tucker-2021-fantasy-schmohawk/

[revo]

I usually don’t put much stock into lineup order, but does it seem bizarre that a consensus 2nd rd pick is expected to bat 7th?

[madducks]

I usually don’t put much stock into lineup order, but does it seem bizarre that a consensus 2nd rd pick is expected to bat 7th?

I could see Vlad with a similar ADP also getting pushed to the 7th spot in that stacked Jays lineup.

[chancellor]

I usually don’t put much stock into lineup order, but does it seem bizarre that a consensus 2nd rd pick is expected to bat 7th?

I just can't believe that will last. I'm admittedly not the biggest Dusty Baker fan, but even I'll concede it won't take Dusty long to move him up in the lineup.

[revo]

I just can't believe that will last. I'm admittedly not the biggest Dusty Baker fan, but even I'll concede it won't take Dusty long to move him up in the lineup.

Let's assume Altuve leads off and not Straw.

Bregman is still the #2 hitter. Brantley, Correa & Alvarez all will hit before him. So I guess at best, Tucker moves up to 6th, ahead of Gurriel? Or if he really takes off, 2nd and they push everyone else back? Seems like he would need a big hot streak for that to happen.

[chancellor]

Let's assume Altuve leads off and not Straw.

Bregman is still the #2 hitter. Brantley, Correa & Alvarez all will hit before him. So I guess at best, Tucker moves up to 6th, ahead of Gurriel? Or if he really takes off, 2nd and they push everyone else back? Seems like he would need a big hot streak for that to happen.

Your confidence in Correa both hitting and staying healthy are much greater than mine. Those two things never seem to intersect with him. And Brantley's a nice hitter and all, but if Tucker hits anywhere near his projections, he's a much bigger asset at 3/4 in the lineup than Brantley is.

[Ken]

And Brantley's a nice hitter and all, but if Tucker hits anywhere near his projections, he's a much bigger asset at 3/4 in the lineup than Brantley is.

Can you show your work on this one? I don't see Tucker's projections showing a "much bigger asset". Tucker is projected for 8-10 more HR, but Brantley makes up for that in ~30 points of average. If you want to simplify and just look at 1 number, they are both projected around a .340 wOBA. Seems very similar to me, and with Dusty Baker running the show, I'd give Brantley the advantage.

[joncarlos]

Sprint speed percentiles for 2020

Myles Straw 91st
Jose Altuve 89th (which, while not strictly related to Tucker, is very interesting)
Kyle Tucker 70th
Carlos Correa 61st
Yuli Gurriel 61st
Alex Bregman 55th
Yordan Alvarez 52nd (from 2019 - and he's probably not faster)
Michael Brantley 34th


I think you'd better believe that the Astros' lineup is deep enough that Tucker still deserves a top 40 pick hitting 6th or 7th if you're picking him. I wouldn't necessarily be betting on him being at the top of the lineup. What's more interesting is how much Dusty cares about breaking up his righties and lefties.

Straw R
Bregman R
Brantley L
Altuve R
Alvarez L
Correa R
Tucker L
Yuli R

[chancellor]

Can you show your work on this one? I don't see Tucker's projections showing a "much bigger asset". Tucker is projected for 8-10 more HR, but Brantley makes up for that in ~30 points of average. If you want to simplify and just look at 1 number, they are both projected around a .340 wOBA. Seems very similar to me, and with Dusty Baker running the show, I'd give Brantley the advantage.

If we assume R/RBI are dependent on batting order, I have Tucker at 30 HR/24 SB and .325/.500, with Brantley at 19 HR/7 SB and .350/.460. Lower OBP, but more power and speed. And I like Tucker's upside potential much more than Brantley's as well.

But, yeah, it's Dusty, so odds of it happening unless he falls in love with the speed component, are low.

[DJBeasties]

I like this kid a lot I'm just having trouble pulling the trigger on him in mock drafts so far. Power, speed, exit velocity, launch angle, SB%, decent plate skills, age, park, MiLB track record. It all looks good. He's just expensive and it's tough for me to take him in the late 20's, early 30's.

[joncarlos]

For all this talk about runs and RBIs, even given where he's going in drafts, I think most owners would be very happy to get 25/25 even if he hits .265 and only gets 160 R+RBI.

The question for auctions is whether you'd rather have someone like Starling Marte or Whit Merrifield for a little cheaper, with a bit more AVG and a bit less power.

[DJBeasties]

For all this talk about runs and RBIs, even given where he's going in drafts, I think most owners would be very happy to get 25/25 even if he hits .265 and only gets 160 R+RBI.

The question for auctions is whether you'd rather have someone like Starling Marte or Whit Merrifield for a little cheaper, with a bit more AVG and a bit less power.

Yeah some risk tolerance in there, too. Marte and Merrifield are both BA/SB combo guys so probably just depends on the drafter's strategy and approach. I kind of bank on both of them to be 25 SB/.285 BA plays.

[Ken]

For all this talk about runs and RBIs, even given where he's going in drafts, I think most owners would be very happy to get 25/25 even if he hits .265 and only gets 160 R+RBI.

The question for auctions is whether you'd rather have someone like Starling Marte or Whit Merrifield for a little cheaper, with a bit more AVG and a bit less power.

You're basically describing Tommy Pham's 2019 season. I can't say that's what I'd want out of my 2nd round pick. It's okay, not a disaster, but I would disagree that most owners would be "very happy" with it. If that's what I'm likely to get there are several better options (I'm looking at you, third round players like Devers, Merrifield, Abreu, Bregman, Eloy) .