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2k21: Dansby Swanson

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  • 2k21: Dansby Swanson

    He's sooooo dreamy. And pretty good at baseball too.

    Lots of interesting things happening with Swanson. Last year Swanson hit leadoff 13 times, second 20 times, fifth 10 times and then sixth/seventh 7 times each.

    This year with no DH, Freedie Freeman is going to hit 3rd instead of 2nd (last year Freddie hit 2nd 26x and 3rd 32x) and so either Swanson or Albies will probably hit 2nd. Which one of them does it will have a pretty big impact on their value, with Ozuna hitting cleanup and TDA likely hitting 5th if he's playing. My money is on Swanson doing it more often than not, but Albies does seem more like a #2 hitter and hit 2nd in 10 of his 28 games last year.

    Swanson's 2020: 264pa, played in all 60 games... 274/345/464, 10hr, 5sb, 49r, 35rbi, 8.3% walk rate, 26.9% K rate, .350 BABIP. That's a bit high for the K rate and a bit high for the BABIP too. His exit velo was in the 55th percentile, hard hit % in the 58th percentile... but a 77th percentile barrel rate and a 90th percentile sprint speed (!!!). Somehow the most similar player to Swanson in his hitting profile was Jeimer Candelario Link here

    His projections are solid:

    BATX .267-23hr-81rbi-87r-11sb
    ATC: .256-23-76rbi-91r-12sb

    He's got a little bit of a low AVG, speed thing going on that I don't think is what people expect to see from Swanson. But the sprint speed is interesting - if they let him run, maybe he gets closer to 15 steals. The K rate is concerning and he needs lots of ABs to build up his counting stats.

    I think the .260-20-15sb range with really good runs and solid RBIs is a good projection.

  • #2
    Originally posted by joncarlos View Post
    He's sooooo dreamy. And pretty good at baseball too.

    Lots of interesting things happening with Swanson. Last year Swanson hit leadoff 13 times, second 20 times, fifth 10 times and then sixth/seventh 7 times each.

    This year with no DH, Freedie Freeman is going to hit 3rd instead of 2nd (last year Freddie hit 2nd 26x and 3rd 32x) and so either Swanson or Albies will probably hit 2nd. Which one of them does it will have a pretty big impact on their value, with Ozuna hitting cleanup and TDA likely hitting 5th if he's playing. My money is on Swanson doing it more often than not, but Albies does seem more like a #2 hitter and hit 2nd in 10 of his 28 games last year.

    Swanson's 2020: 264pa, played in all 60 games... 274/345/464, 10hr, 5sb, 49r, 35rbi, 8.3% walk rate, 26.9% K rate, .350 BABIP. That's a bit high for the K rate and a bit high for the BABIP too. His exit velo was in the 55th percentile, hard hit % in the 58th percentile... but a 77th percentile barrel rate and a 90th percentile sprint speed (!!!). Somehow the most similar player to Swanson in his hitting profile was Jeimer Candelario Link here

    His projections are solid:

    BATX .267-23hr-81rbi-87r-11sb
    ATC: .256-23-76rbi-91r-12sb

    He's got a little bit of a low AVG, speed thing going on that I don't think is what people expect to see from Swanson. But the sprint speed is interesting - if they let him run, maybe he gets closer to 15 steals. The K rate is concerning and he needs lots of ABs to build up his counting stats.

    I think the .260-20-15sb range with really good runs and solid RBIs is a good projection.
    Seems right to me. He is fast enough to get to 15 sbs for sure, but I'd bet on him topping 20 homers ahead of him topping 15 sbs. I'm thinking 25/12.

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    • #3
      Any concerns about him playing a full season? He always seems to miss ~20 games a year.

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      • #4
        The bigger problem is that he plays hurt for half the season after or before missing time and is horrible then. It could all come together, but I don't know if I want to pay for it.

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        • #5
          My concern with him is that he has very middling FB/LD EV and max EV while his barrel % was very high. In a short season with limited number of batted ball events, I'm concerned he may not be able to repeat that barrel percentage limiting his HR upside. Add in the dejuiced ball this year and I think something more like 21hr is where he finishes. Somewhere around 12 steals feels reasonable for him, the big question is his lineup position. If he bats 2nd, he should be a lock for 90 runs w/freeman and ozuna behind him. If he bats 7th, more like 75

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