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Talk about a divisive pitcher! Current ADP puts him around 60th overall, meaning the end of the 4th round for a 15-team league.
Other pitchers in that range - Hyun Jin Ryu, Kyle Hendricks, Max Fried, Carlos Carrasco, Stephen Strasburg, Corbin Burnes.
Last year Plesac was 4-2 with a 2.28 ERA, an amazing 0.80 WHIP, a 3.39 FIP, 9.3 K/9 and 0.98 BB/9. That's an amazing K:BB ratio. His xFIP was 3.50 and his SIERA was 3.41. If he could pitch to his FIP/SIERA/xFIP with a strikeout per inning, he'd be worth that draft pick and then some. His K% was a really strong 27.7%. Even so, that 1.30 HR/9 is a bit scary.
And yet he threw 115 innings with a 3.81 ERA, 4.94 FIP and 5.06 xFIP in 2019. With a 6.9 K/9 and 3.1 BB/9. So all the projection systems look at those skills and say that 2020 was a fluke. (ATC has a 4.19 ERA, Steamer a 4.72 ERA, The BAT a 4.22 ERA, etc)
It wasn't a total fluke - he changed his pitch mix. He had a 13% decline in his fastball and threw his slider a lot more. His SwStr% went from 9.5% to 14.3% - meaning the K/9 looks like it's real and could even have room for growth.
I just passed on him for Kyle Hendricks, but now I'm starting to wish I hadn't. Imagine if a slightly deader ball helps him keep the HR/9 or even reduce it a bit. He could have better than 10:1 K:BB rate with more than a K per inning, a great WHIP and an ERA in the mid 3s.
Reference: https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/2020-f...age-decliners/
And: https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/is-zac...-bonafide-ace/
Other pitchers in that range - Hyun Jin Ryu, Kyle Hendricks, Max Fried, Carlos Carrasco, Stephen Strasburg, Corbin Burnes.
Last year Plesac was 4-2 with a 2.28 ERA, an amazing 0.80 WHIP, a 3.39 FIP, 9.3 K/9 and 0.98 BB/9. That's an amazing K:BB ratio. His xFIP was 3.50 and his SIERA was 3.41. If he could pitch to his FIP/SIERA/xFIP with a strikeout per inning, he'd be worth that draft pick and then some. His K% was a really strong 27.7%. Even so, that 1.30 HR/9 is a bit scary.
And yet he threw 115 innings with a 3.81 ERA, 4.94 FIP and 5.06 xFIP in 2019. With a 6.9 K/9 and 3.1 BB/9. So all the projection systems look at those skills and say that 2020 was a fluke. (ATC has a 4.19 ERA, Steamer a 4.72 ERA, The BAT a 4.22 ERA, etc)
It wasn't a total fluke - he changed his pitch mix. He had a 13% decline in his fastball and threw his slider a lot more. His SwStr% went from 9.5% to 14.3% - meaning the K/9 looks like it's real and could even have room for growth.
I just passed on him for Kyle Hendricks, but now I'm starting to wish I hadn't. Imagine if a slightly deader ball helps him keep the HR/9 or even reduce it a bit. He could have better than 10:1 K:BB rate with more than a K per inning, a great WHIP and an ERA in the mid 3s.
Reference: https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/2020-f...age-decliners/
And: https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/is-zac...-bonafide-ace/
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