Crowdsourcing Expansion Draft Help

[rotogod]

Joining an existing keeper league and need help on ranking the following players for an expansion draft tomorrow.

12 team league.

Pretty traditional contract stuff, draft a guy keep him 3 years and then decide to keep him (no more than 2 add't years)

14 hitters 9 pitchers & 12 reserves (reserve draft after the auction)

Catagories

OBP, Slug, Runs, RBI, SB

W, Whip, K, ERA & RL (saves worth 2, holds worth 1)



Giolitto 3
Bieber 17
Voit 6
Meadows 4
T Anderson 4
K Hendricks 8
McCullers 2
Josh Bell 6
M Chapman 9
Lamet 8

Moncada 17
E Rosario 11
Berrios 14
Hand 9

Baez 18
Gallo 14
Mitch Keller 1
Yates 8

Rizzo 30
Bogaerts 34
Kieboom 9
C Mart 4
E Rod 5
Stripling 5
Mercado 10

Any help would be greatly appreciated and comments or suggestions on specific players you see being under or overvalued are especially helpful.

Hmm what info did I leave out?

Thanks

[chancellor]

Bieber - 17
Giolito - 3
T. Anderson - 4
Voit - 6
Bogaerts - 34
~
Meadows - 4 (I seem to be more positive about him bouncing back than others)
E. Rosario - 11
M. Chapman - 9
Moncada - 17
~
Lamet - 8
Gallo - 14 (in an OBP and SLG league, this may be a little low. Depends on how well you believe he bounces back)
Hand - 9
Yates - 8
McCullers - 2
K. Hendricks - 8
Bell - 6 (may be low here. I haven't done much research on him yet)
~

Don't waste your time or cash on the others.

If the pool of returning top players is very thin, then Bogaerts should move up to the third slot. Much as I like hitters over pitchers, I really like Bieber and Giolito at those prices.

[rotogod]

Thanks chancellor!

[Todd Zola]

Giolito 3
Bieber 17
T Anderson 4
Meadows 4
Bogaerts 34
Voit 6
K Hendricks 8
M Chapman 9
Berrios 14
Yates 8
Hand 9
E Rosario 11
Josh Bell 6
Moncada 17
Baez 18
E Rod 5
McCullers 2
Gallo 14

[rotogod]

Interesting that Todd & Chancellor are so high on a $34 Bogaerts. I'd be shocked if the other expansion team used a top 6 pick in this supplemental/expansion draft when a $6 Voit and $8 Hendricks are available. Since those 2 and probably a few more like Chapman & Bell would go for more in the auction. Just a simple search for auction values has Voit being worth 3 times his price and Hendricks twice his sticker price. While Xander seems close to his price if not a little more. Also surprised at the lack of interest in McCullers 2 years removed from TJ. Jason Collette wrote one of those articles, looking at high side/low end results and had McCullers as a possible top 3 AL Cy Young candidate. To earn $2 he doesn't even need to come close to that. Appreciate the input - just throwing out there for further discussion.

[Todd Zola]

It's not all about the profit from the player, but what you can do with the savings. A 12-team mixer is going to have silly inflation and having cheap keepers is OK, you're not going to get back even money with your available budget. Keeping a high priced guy near projected earnings means there is less available money to get a negative ROI.

As for McCullers, the piece JC wrote was bold predictions. Not that your point isn't valid, but let's frame it within the right context.

[rotogod]

Thanks Todd. Great input. I have played in NL Only and AL Only Keeper leagues, but never a Mixed Keeper (only redraft) so all the thoughts are welcome. Sorry if I misrepresented Jason's column (when I said high side/low end - I just couldn't think of the phrase bold predictions) wasn't looking to express wrong context.

[chancellor]

Interesting that Todd & Chancellor are so high on a $34 Bogaerts.

I pretty much agree with Todd - in a keeper league like this, premier players rotate into the pool at a pretty slow rate, so they can go for really high prices. DMT is a really good manager of a 12-team keeper, and I think some of the really premier players went into the 60-80 range in his league. He has a listing on one of the threads here that's worth a read.

Also surprised at the lack of interest in McCullers 2 years removed from TJ.

I'm admittedly not as high as Jason on McCullers - maybe there's a little more "there" there, but I see him as a good/solid pitcher, just not exceptional. I'm also probably unfairly dinging Hendricks due to his low K rate and the potential for a Cubs teardown this year, but I'm just not much of a believer.

[joncarlos]

In a 12-team league, replacement level is high. So you want studs (regardless of cost) and then cheap guys who are better than replacement level and allow you to chase the studs. And you want upside.

Something like

Giolito 3
Bieber 17
T Anderson 4
Voit 6
Meadows 4
-----
Bogaerts 34
Josh Bell 6
McCullers 2
K Hendricks 8
M Chapman 9
E Rosario 11
Berrios 14
----
Lamet 8
Mitch Keller 1
Moncada 17
Yates 8
Hand 9

[Gregg]

I agree with most of the ratings. The glaring difference for me is I would knock down K. Hendricks to the bottom of Todd's and JC lists. It is not that I would not roster him I just like most of those other players better.