2K21: JD Martinez

[revo]

Another of the '20 fiascos, JDM's fall from grace was extraordinary. He went from being a .300/.380/.600 superstar to a DH-only with little power almost overnight. The question on everyone's mind is, is he the next Chris Davis? Or Khris Davis? Take your pick. With an ADP of 95, I think he'll either be a great bargain or a total waste of a draft pick, 50/50 shot.

[chancellor]

I'm betting on the bargain, though his DH only won't have me jump very far ahead of his ADP to get him. Of all the batters, he seemed to freak out the most about the elimination of in-game video feed and it sure seemed to get in his head more and more as the season went on. He was still complaining about it to reporters in late July. And after a few episodes of Fielding Adventures with Franmil, I suspect he'll be playing some LF at home, too, so he should get OF qualification.

[mgwiz22]

I'm betting on the bargain, though his DH only won't have me jump very far ahead of his ADP to get him. Of all the batters, he seemed to freak out the most about the elimination of in-game video feed and it sure seemed to get in his head more and more as the season went on. He was still complaining about it to reporters in late July. And after a few episodes of Fielding Adventures with Franmil, I suspect he'll be playing some LF at home, too, so he should get OF qualification.

In his place I would try to find an explanation. It couldn't just be me. I would bet on a bounce back.

[Bene Futuis]

Some Sporer guy likes him pretty well:

J.D. Martinez | BOS – OF – 77 wRC+

While Martinez’s 2019 was down in relation to 2017-18, it was going from MVP-caliber hitter to simply superstar hitter (169 wRC+ in ’17-18; 139 in ’19) so his 2020 output was a massive shock. He hit just .213/.291/.389 with 7 HR and 27 RBI in 237 PA, a season that was emblematic of the Red Sox season writ large.

The biggest issues for Martinez were a massive surge flyballs (+9 points to 44%) paired with a 6-point drop in his Hard-Hit rate which fostered a complete meltdown in his HR/FB rate (-13 points to just 10%) and BABIP (.259). His plate skills (K%, BB%) were a bit off, too, but not enough to make any substantive difference in his output.

The more I look at this, the more I see a 2-month blip as opposed to any fundamental issues worth worrying about in 2021. His age (33) and being DH-only are the only negatives in his profile as far as I am concerned, and neither is pushing me away from drafting him. In fact, his sharp drop in ADP down to late-90s/early-100s covers any worry on the age/DH front and leaves tons of room for profit.

If you are a Martinez proponent you should consider some early drafts as I can only see this ADP rising, especially if he shows out in Spring Training. His Steamer line (.277 AVG, 35 HR, 106 RBI, 94 R) would be great at this price while his 2017-19 season average remains very much in play (.313-41-113-98). Buy, buy, buy!

https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/any-hope-for-these-2020-flops-part-2/

(And beware the misleading number of games played in the OF last year!)

[Sour Masher]

I'm betting on the bargain, though his DH only won't have me jump very far ahead of his ADP to get him. Of all the batters, he seemed to freak out the most about the elimination of in-game video feed and it sure seemed to get in his head more and more as the season went on. He was still complaining about it to reporters in late July. And after a few episodes of Fielding Adventures with Franmil, I suspect he'll be playing some LF at home, too, so he should get OF qualification.

I agree with this, but would be chicken to reach very high over ADP until I see what he looks like in Spring. But I immediately jumped him up 20 spots when I heard they were going to allow the in-game feed again. That was huge new for him and Baez. Still, I would certainly not pay for 2019 numbers, but I am confident he will be closer to them then his 2020 stat line.

[chancellor]

Some Sporer guy likes him pretty well:

Damn. I hate it when I agree with Paul.

(And beware the misleading number of games played in the OF last year!)

No kidding. I gave our commish a heads up on the 6 vs. 7 argument and he's got one guy pissing and moaning about his agreement with JDM being only a UT at auction day.

[joncarlos]

Now this is a bounce-back I can believe in. If we just ignore 2020 but give him a little age-related decline from 2019, we're close to his Steamer projection of .277-34-104.

The Red Sox lineup isn't AWFUL. After the top 4 (Verdugo, Bogarts, Devers, JDM), there isn't anything super exciting, even though I really do believe in Franchy. If they do bring back JBJ and go with a Franchy/Renfroe platoon in the 5 hole... that's a heck of a composite hitter.

I don't want to forget that the Red Sox added a humidor and some of their hitters stunk. These are probably unrelated (Xander was fine), but it's interesting.

[revo]

He had this to say yesterday:
"It was obviously a rough two months. It was one of those things that I felt like I really wasn't prepared for last year. I feel like it kind of caught me off guard, with whether we were going to play, whether we weren't."

[Jefe]

He's gotten 2 starts in LF in spring training. Any chance he gets to 5 games there during the season?

[chancellor]

He's gotten 2 starts in LF in spring training. Any chance he gets to 5 games there during the season?

Yes. Very likely they’ll let him play some LF in Fenway.

[cavebird]

It's not like Franchy Cordero is a defensive wizard, lol. I imagine he'll be quite humorous with the monster.

[bryanbutler]

It's not like Franchy Cordero is a defensive wizard, lol. I imagine he'll be quite humorous with the monster.

Remember Man-Ram there? OMG, some of the funniest plays in the OF I've ever seen...